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志邦家居: 23Q4靚麗,整家戰略成效顯現

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-03-19 20:11

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Zbom Home Collection

(603801 CH)


23Q4靚麗,整家戰略成效顯現


2023E preliminary results: Zbom’s whole-home strategy is paying off with Q4E maintaining strong growth

BUY(maintain)


投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈2023年度業績快報

23Q4擬收入21.9億,同增16.9%;歸母2.5億,同增10.9%;扣非歸母2.2億,同增11.5%; 23年擬收入61.2億,同增13.5%;歸母6.0億,同增10.8%,扣非歸母5.5億,同增10.1%;預計剔除減值影響後歸母淨利潤增速更高。


2023E preliminary results: net profit up 11%, likely higher ex-impairments

Zbom released 2023E preliminary results:

•23Q4E revenue came to RMB2.19bn, up 16.9% yoy; with net profit at RMB250m, up 10.9% yoy and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB220m, up 11.5% yoy.

•2023E revenue rose 13.5% to RMB6.12bn, while net profit lifted 10.8% to RMB600m and ex-nonrecurring net profit grew 10.1% to RMB550m; excluding impairment impacts, net profit growth would have been higher.


整家賦能零售,大宗穩健,海外增量樂觀

1)零售:公司圍繞消費者“裝修一個家”的需求爲核心,進行整家商業模式的戰略部署,佈局南方市場,通過品類開拓、整裝佈局、拎包社區等方式多維度挖掘存量,同時以新零售嘗試、整家聯單提單值等創新方式積極探索新的營銷增長點,整家戰略驅動下零售增長穩健;


2)大宗:公司通過加強落實系統性風險管控體系,有效調整客戶結構,積極培育創新業務,我們預計衣櫃及木門放量明顯,大宗業務保持穩健有序的發展;


3)海外:公司以國內市場爲依託,以國際市場爲導向,進一步拓展海外業務佈局。23年11月公司在泰國召開發佈會,憑藉強大的供應鏈能力、智能製造技術,目前海外業務已進入全球幾十個國家和地區,擁有近5000+全球門店,後續增量展望樂觀。


Whole-home strategy boosts retail and export business; stabilizes volumes

Retail: mindful of consumer decoration demand for the entire home, Zbom strategically fleshes out a whole-home business model and is building out the southern China market. It taps current resources to develop full-suite product categories for entire-home installations and turnkey housing estates. Zbom is also exploring catalysts such as new retail markets, while enhancing the value of whole-home bills of lading. Its innovations have led to stable retail growth.


Bulk business: Zbom enforced its systemic risk management and control system, improved its customer mix and cultivated innovative businesses. We expect strong growth in wardrobe and wooden door sales volumes, while bulk business maintains a stable and healthy uptrend.


Exports: while China is the company’s main market, it is also oriented to the international market to build up its export business. It held a press conference in Thailand in November 2023, for instance. Its foreign business, which provides a strong supply chain and smart manufacturing technologies, covers dozens of markets around the world through more than 5,000 stores. We are bullish about its future export growth.


降本增效成效漸顯,利潤率提升穩健

23Q1-3公司毛利率爲38.4%(同比+1.64pct),若剔除減值影響歸母淨利率提升明顯。公司始終注重自身專業及運營管理能力提升,在研產供銷及數字化建設等方面匹配資源,繼續加大研發投入,重視設計軟件、新零售、智能家居等領域的創新探索,深入推進供應鏈變革及降本增效措施落地,注重合規治理,通過組織革新、流程優化、制度完善等方式促進運營管理效率提升,降本增效成效逐步顯現,我們預計利潤率有望維持10%。


Profit margin uptrend: cost curb and efficiency boost effects are coming through

Gross margin was 38.4% in 23Q1-3 (up 1.64ppt yoy); excluding impairments, net margin would have greatly increased. In prioritizing professional and operational management, Zbom streamlines resources in research, production, supply and marketing. Its digitalization restructure saw heavier investments into R&D, alongside innovations and explorations into design software, new retail markets, smart homes and other areas. It stepped up supply chain reforms and implemented measures to reduce costs and lift efficiency. It ensured compliance governance and pushed operational management efficiency improvements through organizational innovations, and process and system improvements. The results of these cost reduction and efficiency enhancement efforts are gradually coming through, so we expect it will maintain its profit margin at 10%.


投资建议/Investment Ideas



調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

公司積極推動多品類融合及整家銷售,南下佈局及海外市場有望打開成長空間,降本增效成效顯現,根據業績快報,同時考慮到市場開拓及海外市場持續投入,盈利能力保持穩定,略下調前期預測,我們預計23-25年歸母爲6.0/6.9/7.9億元(前值爲6.1/7.2/8.7億元),EPS分別爲1.38/1.59/1.81元/股,對應PE爲12/11X/9X,維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

Zbom is driving a strategy of multi-category integration and whole-home sales. We expect its southern China and foreign market buildout will expand growth headroom, while cost reduction and efficiency enhancement results are coming through. In view of the company’s preliminary earnings report, we have taken our forecast down a notch after considering its market buildout and investments into foreign markets, as well as its stable profitability. We forecast net profit at RMB600m/690m/790m in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB610m/720m/870m), with EPS at RMB1.38/1.59/1.81 and corresponding to 12x/11x/9x PE. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 地產下滑風險;國內需求復甦不及預期風險;減值風險;海外市場拓展不及預期風險;業績快報僅爲初步覈算結果,具體數據以公司正式發佈的2023年年報爲準。


Risks include: real estate market decline; less-than-expected Chinese demand recovery; impairments; and less-than-expected foreign market expansion. Note: the earnings report provides preliminary accounting data and is subject to the release of Zbom’s final 2023 results report.



Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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