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51好读  ›  专栏  ›  天风国际

交通运输——高油价,铁路、港口、供应链受益

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2022-03-14 18:12

正文

China Transportation


高油价,铁路、港口、供应链受益


Rising oil prices benefit China’s railway and port supply chain markets


投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

能源替代,煤炭运量增加

油价大幅上涨,煤炭作为替代能源,消费和运输需求有望增加。中国煤炭主产区位于山西、陕西、内蒙西部,通过大秦线、朔黄线、张唐线等铁路运输到达港口,再通过海运到达沿海消费地。因此,大秦铁路、秦皇岛港、唐山港、日照港、宁波海运等公司有望受益于煤炭运量增长。此外,嘉友国际的中蒙煤炭供应链业务量也有望增长。从煤炭业务的收入和毛利占比看,2021年上半年秦港股份、宁波海运、大秦铁路在70%左右,弹性较大。从估值看,大秦铁路和唐山港的PE-TTM在8倍左右,2020年股息率在7%左右。考虑到能源替代对煤炭运量增加的贡献幅度较低,相关公司盈利改善空间不大,所以估值水平较为重要,推荐唐山港、嘉友国际,关注大秦铁路。


Energy substitution and expanding coal shipments

As oil prices rise sharply, coal consumption would rise as an alternative energy source, along with transportation demand. China’s main coal producing areas are Shanxi, Shaanxi and western Inner Mongolia, where Daqin, Shuohuang and Zhangtang railways transport coal to ports and other coastal consumption areas by sea. Tangshan Port, Daqin Railway, Qinhuangdao Port would benefit from rising coal shipments.


Jiayou International’s China-Mongolia coal supply chain would thus increase in business volume. As profit elasticity increased, coal accounted for about 70% of revenue and gross profit at Qinhuangdao Port, Ningbo Marine and Daqin Railway in 1H21. In valuation terms, Tangshan Port and Daqin Railway had PEs (TTM) of about 8x and dividend yields of about 7% in 2020. With energy substitution representing a small portion of the volume increase in coal transportation and thus low profit increase potential, relative valuations would be a bigger factor in stock considerations.

We recommend:

-Tangshan Port: 601000 CH, BUY

-Jiayou International: 603871 CH, BUY (upgrade from ACCUMULATE)


运输替代,铁路性价比上升

油价上涨导致公路、航空运输成本上升,而电气化的铁路运输成本稳定,所以铁路运输性价比提高,运量有望从公路、航空转向铁路。燃油成本占比上,2017年上半年公路货运在1/4左右,2020年公路客运在1/3左右、航空在1/5左右,燃油价格上涨对成本的影响较大,进而会传导到运费。京沪高铁、大秦铁路、广深铁路、中铁特货、铁龙物流等公司有望受益于运量增长。此外,高油价时,享受燃油补贴的渤海轮渡,相比环渤海公路运输的成本优势增强,运量也有望增加。考虑到替代效应带来的车客流量增长持续性较差,且铁路公司资产较重,所以估值水平较为重要,关注大秦铁路,推荐京沪高铁。


Transportation substitution and higher railway cost effectiveness

The rise in oil prices increased costs in road and air transportation, while electric railway costs stayed stable, improving its relative cost performance. We expect transportation volume to shift from road and air to railways. As a portion of total fuel cost, road freight comprised one-quarter in 1H17; while passenger road transportation comprised about one-third and aviation about one-fifth in 2020. The increase in fuel prices has a deep impact on cost and affects freight cost. Companies such as Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816 CH, ACCUMULATE), Daqin Railway, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, China Railway Special Cargo and Tielong Container Logistics would see increases in traffic volume. In addition, when oil prices are high, Bohai Ferry, which enjoys fuel subsidies, has a cost advantage over road transportation around the Bohai Sea and its business volume would increase. As vehicle and passenger volume growth from substitution is not sustainable and railway companies are an asset-heavy business, relative valuations would be a bigger factor in stock considerations.


商品涨价,大宗供应链受益

石油价格上涨,能源、粮食、金属等大宗商品价格有望随之上涨,大宗供应链企业的营收和利润有望随之增长。大宗供应链企业把商品货值计入营业收入,收入随商品价格上涨;提供服务费的模式下利润率稳定,利润随收入增长。历史上大宗商品涨价阶段,大宗供应链企业盈利往往加速增长。大宗供应链是大行业、小公司格局,头部公司基于竞争优势快速提升市场份额,未来有望持续高增长。推荐高成长的浙商中拓和高股息的建发股份,关注厦门象屿、物产中大、厦门国贸。


Commodity price rises benefit the bulk supply chain

As oil prices rise, prices of commodities such as energy, grain and metals would rise as well, and revenue and profit at major supply chain companies would increase accordingly. Bulk supply chain companies include the value of goods in their revenue calculations, so income increases with higher commodity prices. Meanwhile, profit margins remain stable under a service fee model, so profit would increase with income. Historically, profit growth at bulk supply chain companies often accelerated during periods of commodity price hikes. With the large bulk supply chain market marked by many small companies, leading players are rapidly increasing market share by leveraging their competitive advantages, so they would grow faster in the future.


We recommend:

-Zheshang Development Group  (high-growth stock; 000906 CH, BUY)

-Xiamen C&D (high-dividend stock; 600153 CH, BUY).



投资建议 / Investment Ideas


风险提示:经济增速下滑,燃油价格下跌,新冠疫情加重


Risks include: economic growth decline; falling fuel prices; and deterioration in the Covid-19 pandemic conditions. 


Not-rated companies mentioned:

Bohai Ferry Group (603167 CH)

China Railway Special Cargo Logistics (001213 CH)

China Railway Tielong Container Logistics (600125 CH)

Daqin Railway (601006 CH)

Guangshen Railway (601333 CH)

Ningbo Marine (600798 CH)

Qinhuangdao Port (601326 CH)

Rizhao Port (600017 CH)

Wuchan Zhongda Group (600704 CH)

Xiamen Xiangyu (600057 CH)

Xiamen ITG Group Corp (600755 CH).


以下为研报节选,查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。

The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website.

Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)




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特别声明

天风集团对于在研究业务当中可能产生的利益冲突有着完备的辨识和管理章程。天风集团的分析师以及其他参与本研究出版物撰写和宣传的员工有着独立于天风集团投资银行业务线的管理体系。投资银行、自营交易以及研究业务各自之间有着信息壁垒,确保任何机密以及/或者价格敏感信息被妥善处置。


本报告中所示分析师可能不时与我们的客户(包括天风集团销售员、交易员和其他专家)讨论各种交易策略,其中提及的交易策略可能会对本报告讨论的股票证券价格市场价格产生短期影响的助动因素或事件。这些可能与分析师对股票的预期价格产生抵触。但是任何此类的交易策略不同于也不会影响分析师对股票的基本评级。


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评级定义

投资评级

类别

说明

评级

体系

股票投资评级

在报告发布日期后的6个月内,相对同期该股票的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅

买入

预期股价相对收益20%以上

增持

预期股价相对收益10%20%

中立

预期股价相对收益-10%10%

持有

预期股价相对收益-10%

行业投资评级

在报告发布日期后的6个月内,相对同期该行业的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅

强于大市

预期行业指数涨幅5%

中性

预期行业指数涨幅 -5%5%

弱于大市

预期行业指数涨幅 -5%


管辖区

用于定义评级的指数

中国大陆

沪深300指数

中国-香港

恒生指数

中国-澳门

恒生指数

美国

标准普尔500指数


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Ratings Definitions

Investment Ratings


Category

Description

Ratings

System

Stock  investment ratings

within 6 months from the report issuance date,  increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Stock  in the same period

Buy

Expected  relative return over stock price above 20%

Accumulate

Expected  relative return over stock price between 10% and 20%

Neutral

Expected  relative return over stock price between -10% and 10%

Sell

Expected  relative return over stock price below -10%

Industry  investment ratings

within 6 months from the report issuance date,  increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the  Industry in the same period

Outperform

Expected  increase of industry index over 5%

Neutral

Expected  increase of industry index between -5% and 5%

Underperform

Expected  increase of industry index below -5%

Jurisdictions

Index Used for Ratings  Definitions

China Mainland

CSI 300 Index

China-Hong Kong

Hang Seng Index

China-Marco

Hang Seng Index

USA

Standard & Poor’s  500 Index


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