1 A CENTURY ago, when Harrods decided to set up its first overseas emporium, it chose Buenos Aires. In 1914 Argentina stood out as the country of the future. Its economy had grown faster than America's over the previous four decades. Its GDP per head was higher than Germany's, France's or Italy's. It boasted wonderfully fertile agricultural land, a sunny climate, a new democracy (universal male suffrage was introduced in 1912), an educated population and the world's most erotic dance. Immigrant stangoed in from everywhere. For the young and ambitious, the choice between Argentina and California was a hard one.
当哈罗兹百货在百年前的
1914
年决定设立首个海外分店时，它把地址选在了布宜诺斯艾利斯。当时的阿根廷是世界上未来之国的代表：在截至
1914
年的
40
年中，经济一直以超越美国的速度在向前发展，人均
GDP
高于当时的德国、法国和意大利；那里土地肥沃，农业发达，气候宜人，阳光充足；加之新生的民主制度（该国早在
1912
年就引进了男性普选权）和教育普及程度以及世界上最华丽的舞蹈，使该国成为人人向往的天堂。移民们跳着探戈从世界各地来到这里。对于年轻人和想干出一番事业的人来说，他们会为选择阿根廷还是加利福尼亚而举棋不定。
2There are still many things to love about Argentina, from the glorious wilds of Patagonia to the world's best footballer, Lionel Messi. The Argentines remain perhaps the best-looking people on the planet. But their country is a wreck. Harrods closed in 1998. Argentina is once again at the centre of anemerging-market crisis. This one can be blamed on the incompetence of the president, Cristina Fernández, but she is merely the latest in a succession of economically illiterate populists, stretching back to Juan and Eva (Evita) Perón, and before. Forget about competing with the Germans. The Chileans andUruguayans, the locals Argentines used to look down on, are now richer. Children from both those countries—and Brazil and Mexico too—do better ininternational education tests.
如今的阿根廷仍是一个令人心动的地方，这里有粗旷的巴塔哥尼亚高原和世界最佳球员梅西，阿根廷人仍可能是这个星球上最英俊的民族。但是，对于这个国家来说，她已经衰落了。哈罗德百货已经在
1998
年关闭了在布宜诺斯艾利斯的门店。阿根廷再一次成为新兴经济体危机的中心。我们虽然可以把当前的衰落归之为总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯的无能，但她只是离着我们最近的众多民族主义者中的一位。这些民族主义者根本不懂经济，却能接二连三地执掌一个国家，其中最为突出的当属胡安·庇隆和伊娃·庇隆
(
埃维塔
)
夫妇。阿根廷人还是忘记过去的辉煌吧，这已经是一个根本不同德国在一个档次上国家了。他们过去瞧不起智利和乌拉圭，而如今这两个国家比他们更富有。过去，智利和乌拉圭的孩子在国际教育测试中的成绩都不如他们的孩子，而如今不仅这两个国家已经超过了他们，就连巴西和墨西哥也走在了他们的前面。
3Why dwell on a single national tragedy? When people consider the worst thatcould happen to their country, they think of to talitarianism. Given communism's failure, that fate no longer seems likely. If Indonesia were to boil over, its citizens would hardly turn to North Korea as a model; the governments in Madridor Athens are not citing Lenin as the answer to their euro travails. The real danger is inadvertently becoming the Argentina of the 21st century. Slipping casually into steady decline would not be hard. Extremism is not a necessary ingredient, at least not much of it: weak institutions, nativist politicians, lazy dependence on a few assets and a persistent refusal to confront reality will do the trick.
为什么要单独地把这样一个国家的悲剧拿出来呢？当人们为国家前途担忧的时候，他们所能想到的最坏的结果就是极权主义。不过，鉴于共产主义已经失势，这种命运似乎是不可能再降临到一个国家身上了。倘若印度尼西亚民怨沸腾，他们几乎不可能转向北朝鲜的模式；马德里和雅典也不可能为欧元的困境而到列宁那里去寻找答案。真正的危险就是在浑浑噩噩之中成为
21
世纪的阿根廷。不经意间陷入持续的衰退并不难。极端主义只是造成这种情况的一个必然因素，但不是决定性的。起决定作用的是：虚弱的政治制度，排外的政客，坐吃山空不思进取的行为，以及面对现实拒绝改变的持续抵触情绪。
4As in any other country, Argentina's story is unique. It has had bad luck. Its export-fuelled economy was battered by the protectionism of the interwar years.It relied too heavily on Britain as a trading partner. The Peróns were unusually seductive populists. Like most of Latin America, Argentina embraced the Washington consensus in favour of open markets and privatisation in the1990s and it pegged the peso to the dollar. But the crunch, when it came in 2001, was particularly savage—and left the Argentines permanently suspicious of liberal reform.
每个国家的故事都不一样，阿根廷也是如此。该国在这百年中的经历可以用四个字来概括，那就是：运气极差。他们的出口驱动性经济因
[color=B
时期
lue]
两次世界大战之间的保护主义而遭遇重创。她在贸易上过于依赖英国。庇隆夫妇的民粹主义具有不同一般的诱惑力。阿根廷在上世纪
90
年代的时候也像大多数拉丁美洲国家一样，接受了主张开放市场和私有化的“华盛顿共识”，并且还将比索的汇率同美元相挂钩。但是，这并没有阻止
2001
年的那场危机给他们带来沉重的打击。从那以后，该国民众始终都在以怀疑的眼光来看待自由主义的改革。
5Ill fortune is not the only culprit, though. In its economy, its politics, andits reluctance to reform, Argentina's decline has been largely self-inflicted.
运气差并不是唯一的肇因。阿根廷的衰落主要还是自身因素造成的。这些因素包括政治的、经济的以及对于改革的抵触情绪。
6Commodities, Argentina's great strength in 1914, became a curse. A century ago the country was an early adopter of new technology—refrigeration of meat exports was the killer app of its day—but it never tried to add value to its food (even today, its cooking is based on taking the world's best meat and burning it). The Peróns built a closed economy that protected its inefficient industries; Chile's generals opened up in the 1970s and pulled ahead.Argentina's protectionism has undermined Mercosur, the local trade pact. MsFernández's government does not just impose tariffs on imports; it taxes farm exports.
作为该国在一个世纪前得以强盛的依赖，如今的农矿产品已经成为该国走向衰落的诅咒。百年前的阿根廷是采纳新技术——如作为那个时代的“必杀技”之一的肉制品冷藏技术——的先驱。但是，从那以后，
这个国家就再也没有想办法其出口食品能够卖得更贵一些（即便是到现在，他们的食品产业仍然只满足于对世界上最好的肉类进行加工）。庇隆夫妇建立了一个封闭的经济体。这种经济体除了保护该国效率低下的工业之外，
[
没有给国家带来任何好处
]
。相比之下，智利的将军们反而在上世纪
70
年代打开了国门，带领国家向前发展。阿根廷的保护主义一直在破坏作为地区贸易协议的《南方共同市场》。费尔南德斯政府除了对进口商品征税之外，还将出口的农产品也列入了征税的名单。
7Argentina did not build the institutions needed to protect its young democracy from its army, so the country became prone to coups. Unlike Australia, another commodity-rich country, Argentina did not develop strong political parties determined to build and share wealth: its politics was captured by the Perónsand focused on personalities and influence. Its Supreme Court has been repeatedly tampered with. Political interference has destroyed the credibilityof its statistical office. Graft is endemic: the country ranks a shoddy 106 thin Transparency International's corruption index. Building institutions is adull, slow business. Argentine leaders prefer the quick fix—of charismatic leaders, miracle tariffs and currency pegs, rather than, say, a thorough reform of the country's schools.
鉴于阿根廷没有建立一套保护其年轻的民主制度免受军队影响的国家制度，以致该国经常发生军事政变。与同样靠农矿产发家的澳大利亚相比，阿根廷没有形成以创造和分享财富为目标的强大政党。该国的政治一度被庇隆夫妇把持，具有浓厚的个人色彩。最高法院总是被人利用。贪污腐败盛行。在透明国际的腐败国家指数排行榜上，阿根廷名列地
106
位。构建国家制度是一项单调枯燥而且进展缓慢的工作。政治介入败坏了该国统计部门的名声。相比之下，阿根廷领导人更青睐通过个人的魅力、神奇的关税和货币盯住美元等方式进行快速的修补，他们不愿意对这个国家的教育制度进行彻底的改革。
8Argentina's decline has been seductively gradual. Despite dreadful periods,such as the 1970s, it has suffered nothing as monumental as Mao or Stalin.Throughout its decline, the cafés of Buenos Aires have continued to serveespressos and medialunas. That makes its disease especially dangerous.
阿根廷的百年衰落史是一个渐进的过程，这正是这个故事吸引人的地方。除了上世纪
70
年代曾经经历过一段艰难岁月之外，这个国家始终没有遭遇到斯大林主义的侵害。在其衰落过程中，布宜诺斯艾利斯的咖啡馆仍旧照常供应浓咖啡和牛角包。这一点使得该国的病症特别具有危害性。
