2025年的关键信息-系好安全带，这将是一个过山车_三思行研的专栏文章_微信文章

Buckle up. This year will be a rollercoaster for stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies.

系好安全带今年将是股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的过山车。

In physics, the three-body problem describes the impossibility of calculating the trajectories of three independent masses because of the inherently chaotic nature of their interactions under Newtonian laws of motion and gravity. For traders and investors, the interplay of politics, economics and markets will make assaying the paths of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies this year even harder than usual.

在物理学中，三体问题描述了计算三个独立质量的轨迹的不可能性，因为它们在牛顿运动和引力定律下的相互作用具有固有的混沌性质。对于交易员和投资者来说，政治、经济和市场的相互作用将使今年分析股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的走势比往年更加困难。

The election of Donald Trump introduces an unwelcome capriciousness to US policymaking, with everything from trade to regulation to cryptocurrencies looking decidedly less predictable. And while the US consumer continues to defy expectations by keeping the world’s largest economy rolling along just fine, the rest of the world is a lot less robust. Our key message for 2025: Buckle up, it’s gonna be a roller coaster.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的当选给美国的政策制定带来了一种不受欢迎的反复无常，从贸易到监管再到加密货币，一切都显得不那么可预测。尽管美国消费者继续无视人们的预期，让这个全球最大的经济体沿着运转良好，但世界其他地区的经济却不那么强劲。

2025年的关键信息：系好安全带，这将是一个过山车。

The Fed Was the Dog That Didn’t Bark in 2024

美联储是2024年不叫的狗

This time last year, futures traders were expecting a wave of recession-repelling interest-rate cuts from the US central bank. Monetary easing failed to materialize on anything like the scale anticipated. The same was true for 2023, with high hopes for lower borrowing costs dashed by a Federal Reserve focused on quashing inflation. Will the coming year deliver?

去年这个时候，期货交易员们曾预计美联储将出台一波抑制衰退的降息举措。货币宽松政策未能以预期的规模实现。2023年也是如此，专注于遏制通胀的联邦（Fed）令降低借贷成本的厚望破灭。明年会兑现吗？

Will the Fed Disappoint Again?

美联储会再次失望吗？

The futures market got the outlook for US interest rates wrong both last year and the year before. Will 2025 come good?

期货市场在去年和前年都对美国利率前景做出了错误的预测。2025年会是好的吗？

The Fed didn’t bark last year — well, nowhere near as loudly as expected — because it didn’t have to; the economy proved unexpectedly resilient and concern about a recession faded among market soothsayers. US policymakers may be just as quiet this year — or Trump 2.0 may trigger a more proactive policy response, in either direction.

美联储去年没有咆哮--嗯，远没有预期的那么大声--因为它没有必要这样做;事实证明，经济出人意料地具有弹性，市场预言家对经济衰退的担忧也逐渐消退。美国政策制定者今年可能会保持沉默--或者特朗普2.0可能会引发更积极的政策反应，无论是哪个方向。

Stock-Market Bears Throw in the Towel as Market Reaches Record $127,709,441,720,750

股市熊市在毛巾中投掷，因为市场达到创纪录的127，709，441，720，750美元

At just shy of $128 trillion, the market capitalization of global stocks reached a record last month and climbed 12% in 2024. Jaw-dropping values for US companies including Apple Inc. (worth $3.8 trillion, up 31% last year), Nvidia Corp. ($3.37 trillion, +178%), Microsoft Corp. ($3.16 trillion, +13%), Amazon.com Inc. ($2.33 trillion, +46%) and Meta Platforms Inc. ($1.5 trillion, +67%) may have been boosted by overblown hype about the promise of artificial intelligence, but benchmark indexes in Japan, Spain , and Hong Kong all gained 14% or more. Even stagnant Germany’s DAX advanced 19%.

Global Stock Markets Rise to a Record

全球股市创历史新高

The value of world stock markets reached almost $128 trillion last month

上个月，全球股票市场的市值达到近128万亿美元

There are a couple of what might be called reverse indicators, with some notable permabears throwing in the towel. Last month saw “the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational” from David Rosenberg. In November, JPMorgan Chase & Co., which spent two bearish years getting the S&P 500 index wrong, switched to predicting a gain for the benchmark; its chief global market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, exited the firm in July. And a month ago, Citigroup Inc. pointed out short-sellers capitulating on bearish bets made investor positioning in S&P futures “completely one-sided.” It’d be a brave portfolio manager who bet against further equity market gains this year — even if the promise of AI proves to have been overdone.

有几个可能被称为反向指标的指标，一些值得注意的永久性债券认输了。上个月，大卫罗森伯格（David Rosenberg）发表了“一位空头的哀叹，他意识到，尽管市场肯定是繁荣的，但实际上可能并不完全是非理性的”。11月，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）该公司在两年的时间里一直看跌标准普尔500指数，但却预测该指数将上涨;其首席全球市场策略师马尔科？科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）于7月离开了该公司。一个月前，花旗集团（Citigroup Inc.）他指出，卖空者放弃看跌押注，使投资者在标普期货中的头寸“完全一边倒”。这将是一个勇敢的投资组合经理谁打赌今年股市进一步上涨-即使人工智能的承诺被证明是过头了。

It’s Trump’s Currency, It’s Your Problem

这是特朗普的货币，这是你的问题

It’s tough to know what will be the main driver of the dollar this year. It could be a mighty tussle between the rhetoric of the Trump administration — the president-elect has both decried the greenback’s strength and demanded the fidelity of the BRICS to its preeminence — and how the Fed responds. Further US interest-rate cuts are not a certainty; meanwhile, the rest of the world is going to have to look after itself after battling against a 6.5% rise in the dollar index last year.

很坚韧知道今年美元的主要驱动力是什么。这可能是特朗普政府的言辞--这位当选总统既谴责美元的强势，又要求金砖国家忠于其卓越地位--与美联储如何回应之间的一场激烈较量。美国进一步降息并不确定;与此同时，在去年美元指数上涨6.5%之后，世界其他地区将不得不照顾好自己。

It Was The Greenback's Year

这是美元的一年

There were a few plucky currencies keeping pace in 2024 but most have been struggling badly against King Dollar

2024年有一些勇敢的货币保持同步，但大多数货币都在与美元国王的斗争中苦苦挣扎

A rampant dollar can cause particular strain for resource-poor nations having to pay for dollar-denominated commodities in their own weakened currencies, and with prospective trade tariffs a big concern, it’s far from clear where any respite comes from. As John Connally said in 1971 when he was Richard Nixon's U.S. Treasury secretary: “It's our currency, but it's your problem.”

猖獗的美元可能会给资源贫乏的国家带来特别的压力，这些国家不得不以本国疲软的货币购买以美元计价的大宗商品，而且由于未来的贸易关税是一个很大的担忧，目前还不清楚任何喘息的机会来自哪里。正如约翰·康纳利（John Connally）在1971年担任理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）的美国财政部长时所说：“这是我们的货币，但这是你们的问题。”

One Commodity to Rule Them All

一种商品统治一切

If there was only one gauge available to asses the overall state of the global economy, the oil price would be the best bet. It typically trades off how many logistical blockages pop up or how strong appetite from China or India is. Demand is still very strong, but that’s less relevant currently. There’s a new determinant in the shape of overwhelming supply from the Americas — not just shale fracking from the Permian basin but also extra production from South America, including Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela. Moreover, China’s shift to electric vehicles and increased nuclear and gas energy supply look like being permanent game changers.

如果只有一个衡量全球经济整体状况的指标，那么油价将是最好的选择。它通常会权衡出现多少物流堵塞，或者中国或印度的胃口有多强。需求仍然非常强劲，但目前相关性较低。来自美洲的压倒性供应是一个新的决定因素-不仅是来自二叠纪盆地的页岩压裂，而且还有来自南美的额外产量，包括巴西，圭亚那和委内瑞拉。此外，中国向电动汽车的转变以及核能和天然气能源供应的增加似乎是永久性的改变者。

Oil Is Looking Vulnerable

石油看起来很脆弱

Healthy supply of crude is overwhelming any demand or logistical issues

健康的原油供应压倒了任何需求或物流问题

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, along with Ukraine and other hotspots, remain a perennial problem. But OPEC+’s inability to make production caps work means that there’s no defendable line in the sand for crude. And, as our colleague Javier Blas has argued, those output curbs will chafe particularly with Kazakhstan this year, as the central Asian nation seeks to take advantage of the additional pumping capacity coming online from its decade-long $45 billion project to expand its largest oilfield.

中东的地缘政治局势，连同沿着乌克兰和其他热点，仍然是一个长期存在的问题。但OPEC+无法使产量上限发挥作用，这意味着原油在沙地上没有可供选择的路线。而且，正如我们的同事哈维尔·布拉斯（Javier Blas）所指出的那样，这些产量限制今年将特别激怒哈萨克斯坦，因为这个中亚国家试图利用其长达十年的450亿美元项目带来的额外抽水能力来扩大其最大的油田。

Credit Spreads See No Evil, Fear No Evil

信用传播见不得恶，不怕恶

While US equity markets continue to make new highs and both growth and the dollar appear bulletproof, there is a sense that nothing can go wrong. Markets are priced for perfection. This is readily apparent when looking at the yield spread between government and corporate bonds.

2025年的关键信息-系好安全带，这将是一个过山车

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