美国的国债规模庞大——如此庞大以至于大多数美国人难以理解，更别提解决它了。但是，一场危机正在逼近，一个影响每一个美国人的清算日即将到来。曼哈顿研究所的布莱恩里德尔解释了我们是如何陷入这个境地的，以及对此你能做些什么。
National Debt: Who Cares?
国债：
谁在乎？
人文经济学会
资助译制
翻译：
Sunny
|
校对：
FungChuh
In the 1958 movie, The Blob, starring a young Steve McQueen, a giant, expanding mass – a blob – threatens to destroy an entire town and everyone in it. It keeps growing and growing, and no one can stop it.
在 1958 年由小史蒂夫·麦奎因主演的电影《变性怪体》中，一个巨大的、不断膨胀的物体——一团果冻——威胁要毁灭整个城镇和所有居民。它越长越大，没有人能阻止它。
The United States debt is like that blob. Unlike the fictional blob, it threatens to destroy more than an entire town; it threatens the entire nation.
美国国债就像那团果冻。与虚构的果冻不同的是，它威胁要毁灭的不仅仅是一个城镇；它威胁的是整个国家。
Where is Steve McQueen when you need him?
当你需要史蒂夫·麦奎因的时候，他在哪里？
Here are some numbers.
以下是一些数据。
The national debt currently stands at $22 trillion dollars. That's trillion – with a 'T.' Ten years ago, it was $10 trillion dollars. Ten years from now, it's projected to be $34 trillion.
美国目前的国债为 22 万亿美元。是万亿，以T开头。十年前，它为 10 万亿美元。10年后，预计将达到 34 万亿美元。
The interest payment on our debt is currently $300 billion dollars per year, heading towards a projected $1 trillion dollars within a decade. At that point, a fifth of all federal taxes will go towards the interest on the debt, not education, infrastructure, and defense – you know, the stuff government is supposed to do. And that's with historically low interest rates. Imagine if those rates normalized. Well, maybe you don't want to imagine it because that picture is very dark.
In a better world, voters would be marching on Washington, demanding that our politicians dig us out of this hole before we're buried in it.
目前，国债的利息是每年 3000 亿美元，预计在 10 年内将达到 1 万亿美元。到那时，联邦税收的五分之一将用于支付国债利息，而不是教育、基础设施和国防——你认为政府应该做的事情。这还是在利率处于历史低位的情况下。想象一下如果利率正常化。也许你不想想，因为那一前景十分黯淡。在更美好的世界里，选民们将向华盛顿进军，要求政客们在我们被埋葬之前把我们从洞里救出来。
In the real world... almost no one cares. But we should care. And any thinking person, left or right, understands why. No individual and no nation can accumulate debt indefinitely. Europe was able to bail out Greece with some loans a few years ago. But Greece is a small country. If the US goes 'boom,' there's going to be no one to bail us out. So what's driving the debt? And, more importantly, how do we drive ourselves out of it?
在现实世界中……几乎没有人在意。但我们应该关心。任何有识之士，无论是左派还是右派，都能理解为什么。任何个人和国家都不能无限地积累债务。几年前，欧洲能够用一些贷款救助希腊。但希腊只是一个小国。如果美国「爆炸」了，没人能救助我们。那么是什么在推动债务增长？更重要的是，我们如何自救？
The debt has been growing for decades. It got supercharged by the 2008 recession. Revenues fell while spending soared. Under President Obama, the debt doubled from $10 trillion dollars to $20 trillion. In the first two years of the Trump Administration, we've added another $2 trillion dollars.
几十年来，国债一直在增长。它在 2008 年的经济衰退中被极大增压。收入下降而支出飙升。在奥巴马总统的领导下，国债从 10 万亿美元翻倍为 20 万亿美元。在特朗普执政的头两年，我们又增加了 2 万亿美元。
So what are we to do?
那我们该怎么办？
First, we need to identify the primary source of the problem. It's pretty basic. You can talk about defense spending, welfare spending, or bloated budgets all you want, but it really comes down to two programs: Social Security and Medicare. Unless we get a handle on these monsters, the debt blob will continue to expand until it overwhelms us.
首先，我们要确定问题的根源。这很简单。你可以说是国防开支、福利支出或膨胀的财政预算或者随便什么，但归根结底只有两个项目：社保和医保。除非我们控制住这两头怪兽，否则债务果冻将继续扩大，直到把我们压垮。
According to data from the Congressional Budget Office, these two programs alone face a $100 trillion-dollar shortfall over the next three decades. How is that possible?
国会预算办公室的数据显示，仅这两个项目在未来 30 年内就面临 100 万亿美元的缺口。这怎么可能呢？
Well, for starters, you've got 74 million Baby Boomers rolling into retirement age – 10,000 a day. On top of that, Medicare recipients typically receive benefits that are triple the size of what they paid into the system. Without some serious adjustments, these programs are going to fail. This is not the fault of retirees. It is simple demographics and math.
首先，有 7400 万婴儿潮时期出生的人将进入退休年龄——每天 1 万人。除此之外，联邦医疗保险的受益者获得的福利通常是他们向该体系支付金额的三倍。若不进行一些严肃的调整，这些项目将会破产。这不是退休人员的错。这只是简单的人口统计和数学计算。
Paying all promised benefits would require either raising the payroll tax from its current 15.3% to 33% or imposing a 34% national sales tax. No – squeezing the rich, slashing defense, or eliminating welfare won't come close to paying the bill. Neither will any plausible level of economic growth. The 100 trillion-dollar hole is too big.
要支付所有承诺的福利，要么将工资税从目前的 15.3% 提高到 33%，要么征收 34% 的全国销售税。不——压榨富人，削减国防开支，或者取消福利，这些都远不能付清账单。任何合理的经济增长水平也不能。100 万亿美元的缺口太大了。
So let's talk fairness. If Mom and Dad can't make the mortgage payment, they don't tell the kids to get full-time jobs to make up the shortfall. They move to a different house that matches their budget.
让我们谈谈公平。如果父母不能偿还房贷，他们不会让孩子去找份全职工作来弥补缺口。他们会搬到另一所符合他们预算的房子。
Likewise, when America promises senior citizens benefits far exceeding what they paid into the system, we should not tell young working families that their taxes must be doubled or tripled. We should instead pare back those benefits to an affordable level. That's only fair and sensible, right? But when it comes to the debt, neither of these qualities seems to figure in. So what can we can do? More to the point, what can you do?
