【经济学人】看日本能否翻转严峻局势|2016.11.26|总第749期

HARUHIKO KURODA is not a man to be put off by an unexpected setback. On November 17th the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave his defiant take on the implications for Japanese monetary policy of the global market gyrations that have followed the surprise election of Donald Trump. Interest rates, he noted, have risen in America. “But that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically allow Japanese interest rates to increase in tandem.”

黑田东彦不是会被意外挫折所阻扰的人。在11月17日，作为日本银行行长的他，针对唐纳德-特朗普出人意料当选美国总统随后引发的全球市场波动的日本货币政策的启示发表了大胆的看法。他提到，美国利率已经上涨。“但是，这并不意味着我们必须下意识地让日本利率同时上涨。” 

• Rally ['rælɪ]： n 恢复
  

• Defiant  [dɪ'faɪənt]：挑衅的; 目中无人的; 蔑视的; 大胆的。

• Gyrations [dʒaɪ'reɪʃ(ə)n]：回转; 旋转

黑田东彦说：我在静静地思考~

A sell-off triggered by Mr Trump’s win wiped more than $1.2trn off the value of the world’s bond markets as investors bet that his administration will stoke America’s economic engines and drive up inflation. Bond yields rose sharply around the world as investors sold assets to buy dollar-denominated ones. In Japan the yen weakened and the yield on ten-year government bonds (JGBs) crept above zero for the first time in nearly two months. Since he was appointed by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, in March 2013 as custodian of the monetary wing of “Abenomics”, Mr Kuroda has been fighting to end years of debilitating deflation. Keeping bond yields down is an important part of that struggle.

由特朗普先生当选引发的抛售蒸发了全球债券市场超过1.2万亿美元的市值，因为投资者认定，在他的管理之下，将会重新点燃美国经济的引擎，从而加速通货膨胀。全球范围内的债券收益急剧上升，是由于投资者卖掉了资产去换成美元计价的债券。在日本，日元走低，并且十年期政府债券的收益率在最近的两个月第一次缓缓上涨突破了0%。期待您的翻译，，将您的翻译留言在下方，第二天有读者解析哟！压低债券收益率是这场斗争的重要环节。

• sell-off： 廉价抛售; 出清存货。

• dollar-denominated [dɪ'nɒmɪneɪt] :美元标价的

• Abenomics：安倍经济学

• bond yields [jiːld] ：债券市场利息率

Under his tenure, the BoJ has been printing money to buy government bonds. In 2014 it expanded this quantitative-easing programme from ¥50trn ($445bn) to ¥80trn a year. The BoJ now owns around 40% of the total JGB market. And in February this year it fired off one of its biggest bazookas yet, cutting its benchmark interest rate to -0.1%. Critics accused Mr Kuroda of intensifying a failing strategy. But in a bid to ward off speculation that the bank might retreat from its aggressive easing, Mr Kuroda gave a defiant speech in September, promising to keep ten-year JGB yields at around zero until inflation overshoots its target rate of 2% for an unspecified period. That now looks even harder than it did.

在黑田东彦任职期间，日本银行不断印刷钞票来购买政府债券。在2014年，日本银行扩张了量化宽松计划，从一年50兆日元（约4450亿美元）调整至80兆日元。日本银行现在拥有国债市场总量的约40%的债券。然而，在今年2月，日本银行实施的一项重要措施就是削减基准利率至-0.1%。批评者谴责黑田东彦激化了一个失败的决策。但是，为了去避开银行可能会撤回他们激进的量化宽松政策这种投机行为，黑田东彦在九月份发表了一场大胆的演讲，承诺将会保持十年期政府债券收益率在0%左右，直到通货膨胀率在某一时期超过既定的2%。现在看来，实现这个目标更加困难了。

• Tenure ['tenjə]：占有（职位，不动产等）; 占有期; 终身职位。

• quantitative-easing programme ['kwɒntɪ,tətɪv]：量化宽松计划

• benchmark interest rate：基准利率

• Ward off：抵挡; 避开，挡住; 架。

• speculation  [,spekjʊ'leɪʃn]：投机

For Mr Abe, the prime objective is to tackle deflation. Only if people believe prices are going to go up will they spend money now, he explained after taking office. If consumers don’t spend, and businesses don’t invest, the economy will be trapped in a doomed cycle. But despite moments of hope, nearly four years later the central bank is no closer to igniting inflation. Mr Kuroda blames falling oil prices and a slowdown in emerging markets. He is not helped by wages that have remained stagnant, despite Mr Abe’s repeated pleas to business to raise them, and despite the record hoard of ¥242trn in cash and deposits held by corporate Japan. Whatever the reasons, it is clear that the 2% target is not within reach, says Daiju Aoki, an economist in Tokyo for UBS, a Swiss bank.

对于安倍晋山来说，他的首要目标就是去解决通货紧缩。在他上任后，他解释道，只有人民认为物价会持续走高，他们才会现在把钱花掉。如果消费者不花钱，企业就不会投资，经济将会陷入恶性循环。除了意外情况，至少在四年内，央行不太会引发通货膨胀。黑田东彦把这些不景气归咎于下跌的油价，以及新兴市场的放缓。他并没有从低廉的人工成本中受益，即使安倍晋三不断要求企业去提高工资以及日本企业持有创纪录的242亿现金和储蓄。在东京的瑞银证券经济学家Daiju Aok表示，无论出于什么原因，清晰可见的是，2%的目标是遥不可及的。

• Stagnant ['stægnənt]：污浊的; 不流动的，停滞的; 不景气的; 迟钝的，呆笨的

As commentators have noted, Mr Kuroda can print money, but not people. Overshadowing the economy is Japan’s ageing, shrinking population. With far more deaths than births, it has fallen by about 1m since 2010. Government projections say the labour force could collapse by 40% by 2060. Meanwhile, public debt has grown to 246% of gross domestic product, the highest such ratio in the world.

评论家指出，黑田东彦能够印刷钞票，但是不能够创造人民。让日本经济蒙上阴影的就是日本老龄化、逐渐减少的人口。由于死亡率超过出生率，自从2010年起日本人口已经减少了100万。政府预计，到2060年劳动力可能衰退40%。与此同时，公债会上涨至国内生产总值的246%，这是世界范围内的最高比例。

• Overshadow [əʊvə'ʃædəʊ]：遮阴; 使失色; 使阴暗; 夺去…的光辉。

• Projection [prə'dʒekʃ(ə)n]：推测

Without the deep structural reforms long promised by the government, Mr Kuroda has been left with probing the boundaries of what monetary policy can achieve. The BoJ’s promise of “unlimited” purchases to maintain its yield-curve target tests its ability to control the bond market. “It is often argued that there is a limit to monetary easing but I do not share such a view,” Mr Kuroda said in September. He may soon find out if the markets agree.

没有政府长期承诺的深层结构改革，黑田东彦一直以来只能探索货币政策能够企及的极限。日本银行“无限制购买”来保持收益率曲线目标的承诺考验他们控制债券市场的能力。黑田东彦在九月表示，“人们总是争论，货币量化宽松策略是有限制的，但是我并不认同这个观点。”他可能很快会弄清楚，市场是否会认可。

• yield-curve  [jiːld] [kɜːv]：收益率曲线

翻译 ▍Arias；iron；入戏太深

审核 ▍QQ

编辑 ▍毛毛

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