預計市場盈利預期處於上修軌道，後續毛利率及遊戲增長的市場預期或存進一步提升空間
1Q2024公司收入同比+6%，環比+3%，略高於彭博一致預期0.4%；1Q2024公司Non-IFRS經營利潤同比+30%，環比+19%，超過彭博一致預期11%（超過彭博預期約59億）；1Q2024公司Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤同比+54%，環比+18%，超過彭博一致預期17%（超過彭博預期約73億元）。
Q1E takeaways: warming market expectations of earnings growth on GPM, gaming
Key metrics:
Tencent Holdings recently announced unaudited 24Q1E results with:
•Revenue up 6% yoy and up 3% qoq, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG) of 0.4%
•Non-IFRS operating profit up 30% yoy and up 19% qoq, 11% above BBG (i.e. outperforming BBG by RMB5.9bn)
•Non-IFRS net profit up 54% yoy and up 18% qoq, 17% above BBG (outperforming BBG by RMB7.3bn).
公司一季度核心盈利超彭博預期達73億元，，拆解主要來自於：
1）公司毛利率邊際提升斜率大超市場預期，1Q2024毛利同比增長23%，超過彭博一致預期約54億元，1Q2024毛利率環比+2.6pct至52.6%，超過彭博預期3pct。過去5個季度，彭博一致預期毛利率持續低於公司實際毛利率（低估值約1.5pct-3.1pct）。
2）1Q2024公司經營費用環比減少58億元至323億元，好於彭博預期38億元，其中銷售費用好於彭博預期10億元，一般及行政開支好於彭博預期16億元。
Core earnings
at RMB7.3bn beat BBG in Q1E, due to the following factors:
•Gross margin performance continued to beat BBG: gross profit rose 23% yoy, beating BBG by RMB5.4bn, while gross margin expanded 2.6ppt qoq to 52.6%, outperforming BBG by 3ppt. The company’s gross margin has consistently beat BBG over the past 5 quarters by about 1.5-3.1ppt.
•Operating expenses came to RMB32.3bn in Q1E, RMB5.8bn less qoq and RMB3.8bn above BBG. In particular, sales expenses outperformed BBG by RMB1bn and general and administrative expenses were RMB1.6bn above BBG.
1Q2024公司展現出清晰的遊戲增長回升勢頭，以及持續超預期的毛利率提升，市場盈利預期進入上修通道。截止2024/5/25，公司1Q2024業績公佈後，彭博一致預測2024/2025年Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤較業績前30日均值上調122/109億元（+7%/+5%）至1968/2210億元，隱含2024年第二至第四季度Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤的彭博預期上調了約49億元。
Gaming growth leap:
gaming growth rebounded visibly in Q1E and gaming gross margin growth continued to outperform BBG. Interestingly, the market’s earnings expectation revisions have entered an uptrend. After Tencent announced 24Q1E results on 25 May 2024, Bloomberg expectations of non-IFRS net profit growth went up by RMB12.2bn/10.9bn (up 7%/5%) to RMB196.8bn/221bn for 2024/25E in terms of the 30-day average, which implies BBG raised non-IFRS net profit by about RMB4.9bn from 24Q2E to Q4E.
展望後續我們認爲市場盈利預期仍存在進一步上修潛力：
1）我們認爲，當前市場預期毛利率或未充分反映收入結構變化帶來的有利影響。目前彭博一致預期2024年毛利率上調至52.7%，對比1Q2024水平（52.6%）提升幅度較有限。而從過往幾個季度來看，收入結構變化帶動毛利率提升的邊際動能較強，包括視頻號廣告&電商、小遊戲、金融增值服務等的新增長來源中期成長空間仍較大。
2）我們認爲，遊戲增長預期存在進一步提升潛力。一方面，近日上線的《地下城與勇士：起源》IOS暢銷榜排名優異，全年流水錶現或更超預期。另一方面，《荒野亂鬥》優異表現推動1Q2024海外遊戲流水同比+34%，4月至今其在主要市場的IOS排名較一季度進一步提升，疊加Supercell新遊戲《Squad busters》即將全球上線。我們預測2024年騰訊海外遊戲收入同比+14%，當前彭博預期2024年海外遊戲收入同比+11%，或並未充分反映海外遊戲增長提速趨勢。
2024E outlook: further upward revision potential in market earnings expectations
We believe the market’s current gross margin expectation has not fully captured the beneficial impacts of revenue mix changes.
BBG currently has gross margin growing to 52.7% in 2024E, a smaller improvement than the level of 24Q1E (52.6%). Recent past quarters have shown that Tencent’s changes in revenue structure provided a marginal momentum that grew gross margins. The new growth catalysts like video account advertising, ecommerce, mini games and value-added financial services provide good growth potential for the medium term.
Gaming business potential: we expect game growth expectation upgrades due to:
•DnF new launches: the recently launched Dungeon & Fighter: Mobile is performing well and featured on iOS bestseller lists, and we reckon annual sales performance could exceed expectations.
•Brawl Stars: Tencent’s majority-owned Supercell’s Brawl Stars is going strong and it pushed export game revenue growth of 34% yoy in 24Q1E. Post-Q1, the mobile game’s iOS ranking in major markets rose further in April.
•Squad Busters: Supercell has another new game Squad Busters in the pipeline about to be launched for the international market. We forecast Tencent’s international game revenue will grow 14% in 2024E, while BBG currently projects 11% growth, which we believe does not fully capture the growth acceleration in the international games market.
網絡遊戲：遊戲增長回升在即；全球研發生態爲高質量管線持續性提供支撐，持續關注本土產品運營調整
我們此前報告《遊戲增長回升在望—騰訊控股1Q2024業績前瞻》（2024/5/12發佈）已指出，騰訊遊戲增長回升在即，國內/海外增速均有望回升。一方面來自成熟遊戲運營向好，另一方面來自重量級新遊戲即將上線。
公司一季度財報對成熟遊戲的流水向好趨勢給出了清晰的數據線索：1）1Q2024《王者榮耀》&《和平精英》收入同比下降，但3月流水已恢復同比增長；《金剷剷之戰》、《穿越火線手遊》、《暗區突圍》的季度流水創歷史新高。2）《荒野亂鬥》以及《PUBG MOBILE》推動1Q2024海外遊戲流水同比+34%（由於遞延因素，收入貢獻會逐步反映）。
新遊戲方面，《地下城與勇士：起源》5月21日上線後，IOS遊戲暢銷榜排名保持TOP1。其韓國合作方Nexon在1Q2024中國區收入同比下降37%（固定匯率，下同）的情況下，指引2Q2024中國區收入同比+35%-73%，我們認爲隱含了對於《地下城與勇士：起源》流水的充足信心。Supercell新遊戲《Squad busters》將於5月29日全球上線，截止5月2日預約數已超過2000萬，目前已在加拿大、丹麥和挪威等地區軟啓動。此外，公司的《星之破曉》、《極品飛車：集結》、《塔瑞斯世界》、《海賊王手遊》、《三角洲行動》等高質量儲備亦有望陸續上線。
值得注意的是，1Q2024公司業績會上提到，目前騰訊的五大遊戲，分別由成都團隊、深圳團隊、赫爾辛基團隊、洛杉磯團隊製作。並且，目前2款重點的新遊戲亦是，《地下城與勇士：起源》合作方來自韓國，《Squad busters》由Supercell研發。我們認爲，公司通過長期的資本佈局和資源整合，全球化研發生態已具備一定成熟度，爲持續高質量的管線提供了支撐。後續，一方面國內研發團隊的新品有望陸續上線，另一方面持續關注本土產品運營調整。
Online games: growth pick-up as global R&D ecosystem enables pipeline
In our previously published 24Q1E earnings preview report, We expect game growth will pick up (12 May 2024), we said Tencent’s Chinese and international market growth rates will both pick up. The catalysts include improving and maturing game operations, as well as upcoming heavyweight game releases.
Mature games:
Tencent’s Q1E financial report data clearly indicate its mature games are trending positive in turnover growth:
•Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite: although revenue fell yoy in 24Q1E, turnover resumed yoy growth in March.
•Fight of the Golden Spatula, Crossfire mobile game, Arena Breakout: these titles set new historical records.
•Brawl Stars and PUBG Mobile: turnover in the international market rose 34% yoy in 24Q1E (for deferment reasons, the revenue contributions will be reflected incrementally).
New games:
•DnF: Mobile took top spot on iOS games bestseller lists after it was launched on 21 May. South Korean partner Nexon guided China market revenue growth of 35-73% yoy in 24Q2E despite a yoy decline of 37% in 24Q1E (constant currency basis; the same applies below), suggesting a certain confidence in the game’s turnover ability.
•Squad Busters is slated for official launch on the international market on 29 May, after soft launches in regions like Canada, Denmark and Norway. The game has had more than 20m user reservations as of 2 May.
•Xing Zhi Poxiao (星之破晓), Need for Speed: Assemble, Taris Land, One Piece Mobile, Delta Force: Hawk Ops: these premium titles in the game pipeline are scheduled to be launched one after another.
Global resources:
it is notable that the company’s Q1E results conference mentioned that Tencent’s five major games were produced by teams located across the globe: Chengdu, Shenzhen, Helsinki and Los Angeles. As for its two new major titles, DnF: Mobile comes via a South Korea partnership, while Squad Busters was developed by Supercell, Tencent’s Finnish subsidiary. We appreciate that the company’s long-term capital buildout and resource integration are shaping up an increasingly mature global R&D ecosystem to support a stable quality game pipeline. Subsequently, we expect this will enable the Chinese R&D team to launch games at a steady pace. We would also monitor how the company adjusts local product operations.
網絡廣告&FBS：連續2個季度毛利同比增量大於收入增量，隱含視頻號&搜一搜廣告、理財服務、電商技術服務費邊際毛利率優異
1Q2024公司廣告收入同比+26%，毛利率提升至55%，分部業務收入與毛利水平均明顯超彭博一致預期。1Q2024公司金融科技及企業服務收入同比+7%，毛利率提升至46%，分部業務毛利率高於彭博預期，收入低於彭博預期主要由於金融科技收入增速受線下消費放緩以及提現減少影響。
值得注意的是，1Q2024公司廣告收入同比淨增55億元（4Q2023同比淨增51億元），而廣告毛利同比淨增58億元（4Q2023同比淨增60億元）。1Q2024金融科技及企業服務收入同比淨增36億元（4Q2023同比淨增71億元），而分部毛利同比淨增71億元（4Q2023同比淨增80億元）。
連續2個季度，廣告業務、金融科技及企業服務的毛利增量大於收入增量，我們認爲這隱含了視頻號&搜一搜廣告、理財服務、視頻號電商技術服務費的邊際毛利率處於優異水平。
Online advertising and FBS: 2 consecutive quarters of robust gross profit growth
Advertising:
•Revenue in this business increased 26% yoy in 24Q1E, while gross margin increased to 55%; both revenue and gross profit substantially outperformed BBG.
•Notably, ad revenue net increased by RMB5.5bn yoy in Q1E (after it net increased by RMB5.1bn yoy in 23Q4), and gross profit net increased by RMB5.8bn yoy (after it net increased by RMB6.0bn yoy in 23Q4).
Fintech and business services (FBS):
•Revenue in this division rose 7% yoy and gross margin increased to 46% in 24Q1E; gross margin outperformed BBG but revenue came in below BBG, mainly because revenue growth was dragged by slowing offline market consumption and weaker withdrawal fees.
•Revenue net increased by RMB3.6bn yoy in 24Q1 (23Q4: net increased by RMB7.1bn yoy) and gross profit net increased by RMB7.1bn yoy (23Q4: net increased by RMB8.0bn yoy).
Takeaways:
Q1E gross profit growth in the advertising and FBS businesses outperformed revenue growth for the second quarter in a row, which we believe points to exceptionally healthy gross margins in video accounts and search ads, wealth management services, and ecommerce tech service fees.
龐大投資組合正逐步重定價，潛在回收投資值得期待。
1Q24騰訊Non-IFRS分佔聯合營公司損益達到55億元，同比淨增56億元，環比淨增10億元，主要由於若干國內聯營公司盈利能力持續提升。如按整體PE計算，公司龐大優質的投資組合價值此前並未被市場充分定價（1Q24末投資組合價值約8500億元），隨着聯合營企業盈利釋放，公司投資組合定價缺口有望逐步收斂。
此外，公司在業績會上表示，投資組合已達到龐大規模，資金投入或基本見頂，我們認爲後續潛在回收投資的股東回報值得期待。
Investment earnings: repricing of large premium portfolio on a potential recovery
Portfolio valuation gap:
Tencent’s non-IFRS share of invested associates’ earnings amounted to RMB5.5bn in 24Q1E, net increasing by RMB5.6bn yoy and by RMB1bn qoq, as profitability improved for several of its associates in the Chinese market. On a PE basis, we believe the market has yet to fully price in Tencent’s large and premium-quality portfolio (about RMB850bn as of end-24Q1), and along with earnings releases from its JVs, we expect the pricing gap will gradually close up.
Capex peak:
the company mentioned at the results conference that its investment portfolio has become sizable and it believes capital investment could have reached a peak. In this light, we anticipate favorable shareholder returns from future profit cycles.
