【经济学人】印度货币整改|2016.11.12|总第733期

NOT much distinguishes a valuable banknote from any old piece of printed paper, as Indians discovered this week. In a surprise televised address on November 8th, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, announced that the country’s two highest-denomination notes, worth 500 and 1,000 rupees ($7.50 and $15), were to be legally worthless with near-immediate effect. This odd variant of alchemy is the latest in a series of moves to curb illicit income; economists hope long-term gains will justify a chaotic spell as India adapts.

本周，印度民众发现有价值的纸钞和旧版的打印纸没有太大差别。在11月8日，印度总理纳伦德拉-莫迪在一场令人震惊的电视讲话中宣布，本国两种最高面值的纸币，即500和1000卢比（约7.5美元和15美元）将在近期被正式废除使用。这种让人摸不着头脑的纸币转变政策是打击不正当收入的一系列行动第一步。经济学家希望长远好处会让印度所经历的混乱政策变得有意义。

• nothingness n. 虚无，不存在；空白；不存在的状态

• highest-denomination:最高面额     

• worthless adj. 无价值的；不值钱的；卑微的

• near-immediate effect:临时有效

• alchemy:(改变事物、物质的)魔力(或方法)

• illicit income:非法收入

• Chaotic：混沌的; 一片混乱的; 一团糟的; 无秩序的。

不明真相的印度群众

The idea is not as barmy as it might first appear. Mr Modi has implemented a flurry of schemes to flush out “black money”, the term Indians use for cash which is both unaccounted for and outside its formal financial system. Piles of ill-gotten income have long been easy to launder into gold or property, where using notes for at least part of a purchase is the norm. “Demonetising” high-value tender （清偿）means existing notes must be traded in at banks and post offices before the end of the year. That will force those with suitcases of cash either to come clean or to renounce their loot.

这个想法可能并没有和乍看之下那么疯狂。莫迪先生实施了一系列计划来打击“黑钱”，这个词被印第安人用来描述除现金以外下落不明或游离在其正规金融系统之外的非法现金。成堆的非法收入现金长期以来可以轻易洗白成黄金或者地产，因为这些在交易过程中一般至少使用部分纸钞。废除大额货币流通意味着在今年年底之前，现存的纸币必须在银行或者邮局被换掉。这将迫使那些拥有成箱现金的人要么证明自己的钱是干净的，要么放弃他们的非法收入。

• Barmy：疯疯癫癫的；酵母的；发泡沫的。

• flush out冲掉，排出；驱赶出来

• black money:黑钱

• ill-gotten income:非法收入

• Demonetise：失去通货资格，废止流通。

• loot:战利品

Still, it is dramatic: central banks usually balk at moves that call into question the legal worth of the notes they issue. The hastily discontinued tender represents 86% of all the currency in circulation (equivalent to 11% of GDP) in a country where cash remains king. Many Indian residents found themselves with little still-legal cash on hand ahead of a forcibly imposed bank holiday and a two-day shutdown of ATMs. A senior bank executive in Mumbai admitted to raiding his daughter’s piggy bank to pay for tolls on his way to work.

不过,这是戏剧性的:中央银行通常在对他们发行的票据的法律价值引起质疑的政策上犹豫不决。这些仓促地中断货币流通行为包括了在现金仍然占主导地位的国家中的86%的流通中的货币(相当于GDP的11%)。因为面对银行强制休假和自动取款机关闭的两天,许多印度居民发现自己手里几乎没有合法的现金。在孟买,银行高管说他打破他女儿的存钱罐支付上班路上的通行费。

• balk n. 障碍；错误vt. 阻止；推诿；错过vi. 犹豫；突然止步不前

• call into question对…表示怀疑

• Hastily：草草; 匆忙地，仓促地。

• currency in circulation:流通中的货币

• Forcibly：强制地; 强迫地; 强有力地; 有说服力地;

• raiding:袭击

• piggy bank:存钱罐

亲爱的大额卢布，再见了

The prospect of life with little or no cash, at least for a few days, cheered those who think Indians should be switching to smartphone apps and card-based payments, which are easier for the authorities to track and tax. That laudable aim will take time in a country where nine out of every ten workers still toil in the informal sector. Though the number of Indians with bank accounts has risen sharply thanks to a government financial-inclusion scheme, most savings are still held outside the banking system. One-fifth of total economic output is said to be informal.

（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的读者试译详解哟~）这个值得称赞的目标在绝大数工人仍然工作在非正规部门的国家的实现需要时间。尽管印第安人与银行账户的数量急剧上升得益于政府的金融包容计划,大多数储蓄仍在银行体系之外。五分之一的总经济产出据称是非正式的。

• laudable：值得赞美的。

• Toil：长时间或辛苦地工作; 艰难缓慢地移动; 跋涉。

Banks are among those who should gain from the scheme: much cash now secreted under mattresses should make its way into their coffers or into the mutual funds they offer. Against that, the black-money crackdown will probably dent (or worse) already-fragile property prices, especially in big cities—and so the value of the collateral the banks lend against.

银行是这项计划的获益者之一：大量藏匿于床下的现金应该会进入他们的金库或者是他们提供的共同基金。相反地，对黑钱的取缔将可能会降低岌岌可危的房价，特别是在大城市，以及削弱银行借贷抵押品的价值。

• Mattress:床垫

• coffer：金库; 资金; 保险柜。

• Crackdown:镇压

• Collateral：担保物; 旁系亲属。

央妈说：我看到了票票在向我招手~

Most economists expect the dislocation to dampen growth in the short-term. Households will probably put off big-ticket purchases such as motorbikes or white goods. Jewellers, doctors and others in professions where cash still rules will also be hard hit. Political parties hoarding cash for election-time handouts to voters will have to tidy up their finances. Even e-commerce sites like Amazon will be affected: over two-thirds of their sales are settled by the buyers in cash on delivery.

大多数经济学家预计这种混乱会在短期内抑制经济增长。家家户户将可能会推迟购买高价品，例如摩托车或者大型家用电器。对于珠宝商、医生以及其他与现金息息相关行业的影响也许会尤为严重。为了在竞选时期吸引投票者而囤积现金的政党将不得不理清他们的财政。即使是像亚马逊的电商网站也将会受到影响：他们超过三分之二的商品销售都是买家用货到付款。

• Hoard：积蓄并储藏（某物）。

• Dislocation：位错; 混乱，紊乱。

• white goods：白色货物，大型家用电器。

A new, shady line of work is already emerging: opportunists are said to be snapping up 1,000-rupee notes at a deep discount from those with too much stashed cash to declare. They will profit handsomely if they can find smaller savers willing to swap the old notes for new ones on their behalf, for a fee. The government has indicated it is gunning for those with suitcases full of rupees rather than merely a few stapled or elastic-banded wads.

一种全新的、名声不好的行业已经浮出水面：据说，人们有机会从那些藏匿巨额现金待出手的人手中用巨大的折扣抢购1000卢比。如果人们能够找到为了自己利益愿意用旧纸币交换新纸币的较小型储户，他们将获取丰厚的奖金。政府已经表示他们针对的是那些拥有成箱卢比的人，而不是仅仅只有几捆用松紧带绑起来的钞票。

• Shady：背阴的; 可疑的; 隐蔽的; 名声不好的。

• Stashed：藏匿; 隐藏; 贮藏。

• Wad：填充物; 炮塞（弹塞）; 小块软物; 可观的一卷纸币，大量的钱。

Some aspects of the plan are difficult to fathom. Prominent economists, such as Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, are keen to scrap big-denomination notes altogether. But India will merely replace them. Worse, it will add a 2,000-rupee series—introducing a note that will have few conceivable uses other than mattress-stuffing, smuggling or gambling (getting change for even a 500-rupee note is already close to impossible).

这个计划的一些方面是难以揣测的。一些著名经济学家，如哈佛大学的Kenneth Rogoff，都倾向于去完全废除大额钞票。但是，印度将仅仅只是去进行更替。更糟糕的是，他们将增加面额2000卢比的钞票，除了塞在床垫下面，进行走私和赌博使用之外，很难想象这些钞票会用在什么地方（因为甚至将500卢比的钞票兑换零钱已经几乎是不可能的）

• Fathom：测深；推测；领会。

• Scrap：报废; 废弃; 取消; 抛弃。

我就是我，不一样的烟火，大家好，我是Kenneth Rogoff

The timing is also odd. India has recently introduced a system that makes it easy for anybody to make or receive payments from their mobile phone, whether they be businesses or individuals. But the Unified Payments Interface, as it is known, is still in the early stages of implementation, so cannot really help overcome the current cash-crunch. Mr Modi also took the cash out of circulation just as polls opened in America, eventually roiling markets.

这个时机也是很奇怪的。印度最近已经推行了一种能够让人们通过自己手机进行付款和收款更为便捷的系统，可以用在商业用途或者是个人目的。但是，众所周知的统一支付界面（UPI）仍然在推行的初期阶段，所以不可能真的帮助克服目前的现金危机。同时莫迪先生让现金退出流通，恰逢在美国开展的民意调查，最终席卷了市场。

• Crunch：嘎吱声; 决定性冲突; 危急情况; 经济收缩。

Cancelling banknotes is usually the work of desperate or misguided regimes. This looks different. Indeed, the assault on black money is justified and overdue. But governments change the rules on the world’s simplest financial instrument—the humble banknote—at their peril. Gold is already favoured by those who want to keep their savings beyond the reach of government and taxman. Gold bugs may feel vindicated; others will have taken note.

废除纸钞一般是穷途末路或者错误领导政权的产物，这次看上去略显不同。的确，这次对黑钱的打击是合情合理却稍稍显得有些晚了。但是，政府却冒着风险而改变了世界最简单金融工具的规则，即低下的纸钞。那些想要让他们的积蓄摆脱政府和收税员控制的人大力推崇黄金。黄金投资者可能会认为自己是正确的，而其他人会赶紧兑换完钞票。

• Regimes：政治制度，政权，政体; 管理，方法。

• Assault：攻击; 袭击，进攻; 威胁，殴打; 侵犯人身。

翻译 ▍Arias；iron；入戏太深

审核 ▍QQ

编辑 ▍毛毛