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粮厂点评
”频道致力于点评粮厂的季度财报、产品发布会、市场表现或其他重大事件，不追求信息即时性和效率性，主要为读者提供粮厂研究员的观点。
2025年的小米集团股价气势如虹，在新年第二个交易日即突破了前高35.9元港币，一路上涨至当前的50元港币。股价上涨除了带来惊喜和懊恼，我听到的更多是困惑和疑问 ——
我们应该如何看待现在的小米？现在还能买吗？或者是不是该卖了？
In 2025, Xiaomi's stock price is soaring like never before. On the second trading day of the New Year, it surpassed the previous peak of HKD 35.9, now reaching HKD 50. This surge in stock price has elicited a mixture of delightful surprises, regrets, and, more frequently, confusion and inquiries —
How should we assess Xiaomi now? Is it still a favorable time to invest? Or is it better to sell?
这篇文章是以著名的Baillie Gifford成长股十问为框架，记录当下我对于小米的看法。Baillie Gifford是一家成立超过百年的英国资产管理公司，
投资哲学是不被短期利益束缚，采用真正的长期视角进行价值投资，其投资组合的平均持仓时间超过10年
。
This article is organized around Baillie Gifford's renowned Ten Questions for Growth Stocks, reflecting my current perspective on Xiaomi. Baillie Gifford, a British asset management firm with over a century of history, believes in a long-term value investing approach rather than focusing solely on short-term gains, averaging over 10 years for portfolio holdings.
我在过去一周和超过20位基金经理交流了这10个问题，希望透过这篇文章，
帮助投资者们将视线投射到小米集团更长期的发展中，而不要被短期的股价所扰动
。
I have discussed these 10 questions with over 20 PMs in the past week.
This article aims to help investors concentrate on Xiaomi's long-term growth and avoid distractions from short-term stock price volatility.
第一：公司销售额在五年内能否翻倍？
Q1: Is there room to at least double sales over the next five years?
小米未来五年的营收增长将来源于以下三点：
Xiaomi's revenue growth over the next five years will stem from three main areas:
（1）智能电动汽车：
SU7的现象级成功，证明汽车业务已成为小米确定的第二增长曲线。2024年小米交付SU7数量为13.5万台（用时仅9个月），以季报披露的23.8万元ASP计算，全年贡献营收超过320亿元（对应24年不含车营收~3280亿元 - 预期数）；2025年，小米在手订单超过10万台，将进一步扩大SU7产能并发布首款SUV车型YU7，全年整体交付30-40万台，预计带来至少750-1,000亿元的营收增长。2026年及往后，小米已经规划第三/四款车，并着手通过扩产/外切等方式，彻底解决产能问题，
乐观情形下可以看到年交付达100万台
（10-40-100万的三阶段节奏也与EV期权的行权条件相匹配）。
(1) Smart EV:
The remarkable success of the SU7 has demonstrated that the automotive business has become Xiaomi's established second growth curve. In 2024, Xiaomi delivered 135k units of the SU7 (in just nine months). With a disclosed ASP of CNY238k, it contributed over CNY32bln in revenue for the year (corresponding to a projected core business revenue of approx. CNY328bln in 2024). In 2025, Xiaomi carried forward 100k+ orders on hand and will further increase SU7 production capacity while launching its first SUV model, the YU7, with expected total deliveries of 300k to 400k units for the year, projected to generate at least CNY75bln to 100bln of revenue. From 2026 onward, Xiaomi has already planned for the third and fourth EV models and is addressing production capacity issues through expansion and outsourcing. In an optimistic scenario, annual deliveries could reach 1 million units (the three-phase rhythm of 100k - 400k - 1mm also aligns with the vesting conditions of the EV stock options).
（2）高端化战略：
自2020年小米将“高端化”升格为集团核心战略，已经取得了巨大进步，尤其SU7为其他品类高端化提供降维式的竞争力。智能手机和IoT业务均向高端化倾斜，Pro/Ultra系列出现在所有核心品类上，硬件产品ASP的提升将推动集团营收的增长。同时，DeepSeek等大模型出现带来的端侧AI部署潜力，将对手机和其他入口级产品软硬件配置提出更高的要求，可能引发类似5G的新一轮换机潮，带来增量市场，并利好整体ASP和营收增长。
(2) High-End (or Premium) Strategy:
Since 2020, when Xiaomi prioritized "high-end" as a core strategy, it has made noteworthy progress, particularly as the SU7 provides a competitive advantage for high-end offerings across other categories. The smartphone and IoT segments are shifting toward high-end products, with the Pro/Ultra series appearing across all core categories. The increase in hardware product ASP will drive the group's revenue growth. Additionally, the potential for user-end equipment AI deployment brought about by LLMs like DeepSeek will increase the hardware/software requirements for smartphones and other user-end products, potentially triggering a new wave of device replacements similar to 5G, leading to incremental markets and further benefiting overall ASP and revenue growth.
（3）全品类出海：
小米集团有约50%的营收来自于海外市场，全品类出海将进一步打开营收天花板。
智能手机
- 手机海外增长来源于高端化（例如印度和中东市场）和不同国家/市场的竞争格局变化（例如非洲和南美等市场）；
IoT业务
- IoT在国际营收占比为~15-20%（而中国区占比为~50%），天花板空间充足，IoT和家电海外渗透率提升将是国际部未来数年的重点OKR；
汽车业务
- 汽车出海的战略重要性是内部共识，并由雷军和核心高管直接负责，最早在2026年第三款车上实现，预计将从小米擅长的欧洲和东南亚首先试点。同时，总裁卢伟冰在2024年投资者日提到，将在海外推动新零售模式，建立超过10,000家小米之家，作为全品类出海的基础设施。
(3) Full-Category Global Expansion:
Xiaomi generates about 50% of its revenue from international markets, and full-category global expansion will further unlock revenue potential.
Smartphones
- Overseas smartphone growth is driven by high-end offerings (such as in the Indian and Middle Eastern markets) and changes in the competitive landscape across various countries (such as in Africa and South America).
IoT
- IoT accounts for approx. 15-20% of international revenue (compared to ~50% in the Chinese market), indicating significant growth potential. Increasing the penetration rate of IoT and home appliances internationally will be a key objective for the international division in the coming years.
Smart EV
- The strategic importance of global expansion in the automotive sector is an internal consensus, directly overs
een by CEO Lei Jun and key executives. It is anticipated to materialize with the third model in 2
026, with pilot programs likely beginning in Europe and Southeast Asia, where Xiaomi excels. Meanwhile, President Lu mentioned at the 2024 Investors’ Day that Xiaomi will promote the retail model overseas, establishing more than 10,000 Xiaomi stores as infrastructure for full-category global expansion.
基于上述三点，我对于小米集团的销售额在未来5年翻倍非常乐观
（5年翻倍对应的年复合增长率仅为14.8%）
。
Given the discussion, I am optimistic that Xiaomi's top line will double within the next five years, corresponding to a CAGR of only 14.8%.
第二：公司10年之后会变成什么样？
Q2: What happens over 10 years and beyond?
首先，10年后的小米将成为全球最成功的消费电子公司之一。
理解小米的消费电子战略，有两个维度至关重要，即“人-车-家全生态”和“软硬结合，AI赋能”。这两句话构成了一个矩阵，前者是横坐标代表品类，即小米会在智能手机、智能家居和新能源电动汽车等所有核心消费电子品类里，均进入全球前3或者前5名阵营；后者是纵坐标代表方法论，即所有品类都要收敛为同一套方法论，即在软件、硬件和AI上做到极致。在这个矩阵要素之间的协同效应下，我们将看到小米出现能够定义消费电子终局的多个拳头产品（当前最有希望的还是汽车），类似苹果的iPhone时刻和特斯拉的Model 3时刻，在出货量、ASP和毛利率三个维度同时具有绝对的优势。
Firstly, Xiaomi is poised to emerge as one of the most successful consumer electronics companies globally within the next decade.
To comprehend Xiaomi's strategy in the consumer electronics market, two pivotal dimensions must be considered: the "Full ecosystem of People, Home, and Car" and the "integration of software and hardware, empowered by AI." These two concepts establish a matrix, with the former representing the horizontal axis that corresponds to various categories—Xiaomi is expected to rank among the top three or five companies across all essential consumer electronics categories on a global scale, including smartphones, smart home devices, and smart EVs. The latter constitutes the vertical axis that signifies methodology—all categories will converge on a unified approach aimed at excelling in software, hardware,
and AI. With the synergistic influence of these matrix components, one can anticipate Xiaomi introducing several flagship products capable of defining the ultimate landscape of consumer electronics (with the most significant promise currently resting on the EV), akin to Apple's iPhone and Tesla's Model 3, possessing a definitive competitive edge across all three dimensions: shipment volume, ASP, and gross margin.
其次，10年后小米的战略价值将从硬件本身向AI生态入口转移。
小米集团成立初期的战略愿景，就是构建庞大的硬件生态（从手机到IoT），获取生态入口的流量价值，并捕获互联网变现模式（这是为什么雷军在IPO路演时说小米是”苹果 x 腾讯“）。这个思路在小米IoT时代遇到了阻力和困难，但却在AI时代看到了希望。DeepSeek的技术创新和成本优势推动了AI从“技术展示”向“场景赋能”的转变，AI在端侧的部署和应用成为了可能。
而小米作为极度稀缺的全生态消费电子公司，把握住了所有未来可能出现的端侧设备入口
；更为重要的是，小米当下近9亿台设备组成的IoT生态网络仍在继续扩张，积累竞争对手无法想象的多维度用户数据。当AI应用和变现时代真的到来时，拥有所有流量入口和用户数据的小米生态价值将从硬件向生态入口转移（或许将成为“苹果 x 特斯拉 x 英伟达”）。
Secondly, over the next decade, the strategic value of Xiaomi is anticipated to transition from a primary focus on hardware to an emphasis on the entry point within the AI ecosystem.
The strategic vision of Xiaomi, established at its inception, was to develop an extensive hardware ecosystem encompassing devices ranging from smartphones to IoT. This vision aimed to capture the traffic value associated with the entry points of the ecosystem and to monetize via the Internet business model. This intention was epitomized by Lei Jun's characterization of Xiaomi as "Apple x Tencent" during the IPO roadshow. Although this approach faced various obstacles during the IoT era, there is renewed optimism in the current AI era. Technological innovations and cost advantages presented by DeepSeek have facilitated the transformation of AI from a mere technological demonstration to a practical tool that empowers various scenarios, thereby enabling the effective deployment and application of AI. As one of the few comprehensive consumer electronics companies with an entire ecosystem, Xiaomi is well-positioned to capitalize on all potential entry points for user-end devices that may emerge in the future. Furthermore, Xiaomi's IoT ecosystem, which currently comprises nearly 900 million devices, continues to expand, gathering multi-dimensional user data that competitors may not envision. Consequently, as the era of AI applications and monetization approaches, the strategic value of Xiaomi will transition from a focus on hardware to a central emphasis on the ecosystem, which possesses all critical traffic entry points and user data, potentially evolving into a new combination of "Apple x Tesla x NVIDIA."
第三：你的竞争优势来自于哪里？
Q3: What is your competitive advantage?
和所有伟大的企业一样，小米的竞争优势也会收敛为两点：
产品差异和价格优势。
Similar to all reputable companies, Xiaomi's competitive advantages will converge into two principal aspects: product differentiation and price competitiveness.
关于产品差异，小米透过“软硬结合”和“人车家全生态”的战略矩阵，能够为消费者带来更好的用户体验。
优秀的消费电子产品是硬件和软件的完美结合，但是硬件的门槛，比大部分人想象的高；而软硬结合的门槛，已不是绝大部分人可以想象的。我们看到太多在软件和硬件领域领先的企业希望走向另外一段，但成功者寥寥（例如百度、阿里、腾讯和字节均在不同阶段尝试自己制造手机硬件）。
小米是中国为数不多拥有平衡的软件和硬件能力的消费电子公司。
在硬件上
，
小米几乎摔过了所有制造业的坑（供应链、交付、质量等等），当下对硬件充满敬畏；
小米自研核心技术（SoC芯片）及自建智能工厂（手机、大家电和汽车）；在软件上，小米的互联网背景让其系统（澎湃OS）、软件和AI能力都远超传统制造业对手。叠加丰富的产品矩阵，将进一步帮助小米在产品差异上获得降维式的竞争力。
