北京時間2024年3月20日，泡泡瑪特（9992.HK）發布2023年全年業績報告。公司2023年整體實現收益63億元，較去年同期同比增長36.5%；分地區來看，2023年公司中國內地地區實現收益52.3億元，同比增長25.7%；港澳臺及境外地區實現收益10.7億元，同比增長134.9%。2023年，公司實現調整後凈利潤11.9億元，同比增長107.6%；毛利率為61.3%，同比上升3.8pct；凈利率18.9%，同比上升6.5pct。
2023 financials: revenue up 37% to RMB6.3bn; adjusted net profit up 108%
Pop Mart International’s recently released 2023 results showed revenue came to RMB6.3bn, up 36.5%, of which the mainland of China market contributed RMB5.23bn (up 25.7%) and non-mainland markets (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign regions) contributed RMB1.07bn (up 134.9%). Last year, adjusted net profit came to RMB1.19bn (up 107.6%), with gross margin at 61.3% (up 3.8ppt) and net margin at 18.9% (up 6.5ppt).
國內：
同店增長勢頭良好，線上新渠道快速放量。2023年，公司中國內地地區實現收入52.3億元，同比增長25.7%。分渠道來看，線下業務回暖，基礎運營強化。2023年，公司國內線下渠道實現收入30.3億元，同比增長46.3%。
Mainland of Chin
a: offline SSSg momentum; new online channels rising rapidly
Revenue from mainland of China came to RMB5.23bn in 2023, up 25.7%. Channel-wise, the offline business picked up as the company strengthened basic operations. Its mainland offline channels generated revenue of RMB3.03bn in 2023, up 46.3%.
其中，1）
零售店
實現收入24.8億元，同比增長46.6%，主要系門店數量穩步提升及同店增長勢頭良好。截至2023年底，國內零售店增加34家達363家，主要位於二線及其他城市，開店速度與去年基本持平。通過精細化運營，2023年國內零售店可比同店同比較2022年提高25%。
Retail stores:
revenue from physical stores in mainland of China generated RMB2.48bn in 2023, up 46.6%, as Pop Mart steadily increased the number of stores on smooth same-store-sales (SSS) growth. It net added 34 stores in 2023 to a total network of 363 stores by the year-end, keeping pace with the 2022 momentum. The majority are located in second-tier cities and below, and tightening its operations led SSS to increase 25% in 2023 vs 2022.
2）
機器人商店
實現收入5.5億元，同比提升44.8%。截至2023年底，國內機器人商店增加123家達2190家。我們認為，隨著宏觀消費穩步復蘇，線下銷售網絡拓寬，疊加門店精細化運營，線下渠道有望保持良好增勢。內容電商跨越式發展，平臺電商止跌企穩。
Robo Shops:
the vending machine business generated revenue of RMB550m in the mainland in 2023, up 44.8%. The number of Robo Shops increased by 123 to 2,190. The company’s offline channels rolled at a good growth pace, which we attribute to a steady macro consumption recovery, while Pop Mart expanded its offline sales network and optimized store operations. Content ecommerce grew strongly as it stabilized its ecommerce platform.
2023年，公司國內
線上渠道
實現收入17.1億元，同比下降6.5%。其中，1）泡泡瑪特抽盒機/天貓旗艦店分別實現收入7.3/3.2億元，同比下滑23.6%/30.4%。2023年12月，天貓渠道單月銷售額同比開始止跌，同比回正至10%以上。2）抖音實現收入2.8億元，同比增長431%。月均銷售額由2022年第一季度的400萬左右，上升至2023年第四季度的3000萬左右，實現跨越式的增長。截至2023年底，中國內地累計註冊會員數新增835萬人至3435.4萬人，會員貢獻銷售額占比92.1%，復購率達50.0%。我們認為，隨著內容電商渠道拓寬，平臺電商持續挖掘單用戶價值，線上渠道有望在新渠道放量的帶動下實現增長。
Online channels:
meanwhile, online channels in the mainland generated revenue of RMB1.71bn in 2023, down 6.5%. A breakdown shows:
•Pop Draw/Tmall flagship stores drew revenue of RMB730m/320m in 2023, down 23.6%/30.4% yoy, as average monthly sales in the Tmall channel bottomed out in December 2023 to register more than 10% yoy;
•Douyin garnered revenue of RMB280m, up 431%, as average monthly sales sprinted to about RMB30m in 23Q4 from about RMB4m in 22Q1. The company added 8.35m registered members in mainland of China to reach 34.35m as of end-2023; members contributed 92.1% of sales and their repurchase rate was 50.0%.
While Pop Mart widens its content ecommerce channels and taps single-user value growth in its ecommerce platform business, we expect its online channels will grow with volume increases in the new channels.
境外
：國際市場拓展加速，第二曲線業務維持高速增長。2023年，公司港澳臺及境外地區實現收入10.66億元，同比增長134.9%，超公司此前約為10億元的指引。分渠道來看，境外核心市場陸續完成入駐，線上渠道多元化發展。
Non-mainland markets: global market growth escalates to add a secondary driver
The company generated revenue of RMB1.07bn in 2023 from the non-mainland markets of Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign regions. The 134.9% increase also surpassed the company’s RMB1bn guidance. Channel-wise, it gradually made inroads into core foreign markets and built out its online channels on diverse routes.
1）2023年，公司
境外
線下渠道
實現收入6.4億元，同比增長324.7%。其中，零售店/機器人商店分別實現收入5.8/0.6億元，同比增長330.0%/277.3%。截至2023年底，零售店/機器人商店分別增加42家/50間至70家/99間。港澳臺及境外共計80家零售店（含合營），159間機器人商店（含合營及加盟）。2023年，公司在法國、馬來西亞、泰國以及荷蘭開設了首家線下門店，並於12月份在中國臺灣西門町開設了全球第三家旗艦店，首日銷售額破260萬元，刷新全球門店紀錄。我們認為，隨著公司基本完成境外核心市場的入駐，後續開店速度有望提升。同時，公司將繼續布局東南亞市場，在印度尼西亞、越南、菲律賓等人口大國進行點位的補充，有望進一步推動境外業績增長。根據業績會，公司2024年預計新增50-60家境外門店至130-140家。
Offline channels:
physical outlets in its non-mainland markets generated revenue of RMB640m in 2023, up 324.7%. More details follow:
•Retail stores/Robo Shops brought in revenues of RMB580m/60m, up 330.0%/277.3%. The company added 42/50 retail stores/Robo Shops to reach 70/99 as of end-2023. Including JV outlets and franchises, it has 80 retail stores and 159 Robo Shops in the non-mainland markets.
•New foreign markets: Pop Mart’s global expansion saw the opening of its first physical stores in France, Malaysia, Thailand and the Netherlands in 2023.
•3rd store in Taiwan: its third flagship store in Ximending, Taiwan opened in December 2023, when first-day sales shot past RMB2.6m and set a new global store record for the company.
•Future stores: Pop Mart has just about effected its plans to enter core foreign markets and we expect the pace of store openings will increase from here. The company aims to expand its footprint in populous Southeast Asian markets like Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, which could ramp up its global earnings growth. Pop Mart indicated at its 2023 results conference that it plans to add 50-60 foreign stores in 2024E to reach a total network of 130-140 stores.
2）2023年，公司
境外線上渠道
實現收入1.6億元，同比增長72.7%。其中，Shopee/泡泡瑪特官網/其他線上渠道分別實現收入0.43/0.39/0.73億元，同比增長70.3%/45.9%/93.4%。我們認為，隨著公司在美國及英國等成熟市場建立會員體系，境外客戶粘性及復購率有望提升
Online business:
the company’s non-mainland online channels generated revenue of RMB160m in 2023, up 72.7%. A channel breakdown shows Shopee/Pop Mart official websites/other online channels drew revenue of RMB43m/39m/73m, up 70.3%/45.9%/ 93.4%. As the company’s membership ecosystem gains traction in mature markets like the US and UK, we believe its customer stickiness and repurchase rates will increase in foreign markets.
產品：IP矩陣持續擴容，上新節奏略有提升
。2023年銷售額過億的藝術家IP達到10個，其中Skullpanda、Molly、Dimoo分別實現10.25/10.20/7.38億元，同比增長20.3%/27.2%/27.6%；小野、小甜豆、PINOJELLY等內部設計師團隊PDC自研IP分別實現收入3.51/2.04/1.58億元，同比增長149.5%/37.6%/105.6%。公司IP運營能力及IP價值再次得到驗證。公司Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4分別發售20/33/33/29款盲盒產品，與22年同期的24/24/36/30款相比基本持平；以及6/4/8/7款MEGA珍藏系列，MEGA珍藏系列全年實現收入6.8億元。我們認為，通過深挖IP內核以及多元產品模式和創新玩法的開發，IP生命力有望延續並創造可持續價值。
Products: expanding IP matrix and product launch pace ticks up
Top 10 IPs:
the strong growth trends last year attest to the strength of Pop Mart’s IP operations and business value. Its top 10 artist IPs capable of generating sales of over RMB100m each in 2023 include Skullpanda (RMB1.03bn, up 20.3%), Molly (RMB1.02bn, up 27.2%) and Dimoo (RMB738m, up 27.6%). In the list are also proprietary IPs developed by its inhouse design team at Pop Design Center (PDC), such as Hirono (RMB351m, up 149.5%), Sweet Bean (RMB204m, up 37.6%) and Pino Jelly (RMB158m, up 105.6%).
Blind boxes:
the company sold 20/33/33/29 blind boxes in 23Q1/2/3/4, a similar trend to the 24/24/36/30 in 22Q1/2/3/4. On top of these, it sold 6/4/8/7 MEGA collections in 23Q1/2/3/4 to bring in revenue of RMB680m. We believe Pop Mart will continue to create sustainable IP business value by leveraging its key IPs, while developing multiple product models and innovative gameplay.
IP：變現渠道進一步拓寬，多元化布局消費市場。
公司在深耕頭部IP的基礎上，不斷拓寬IP變現渠道。根據業績會，公司將業務重新劃分為四大板塊，分別為IP孵化與運營、潮流玩具與零售、主題樂園與體驗（樂園、潮玩展等）、數字娛樂（遊戲、內容等）。2023年9月，「泡泡瑪特城市樂園」在北京朝陽公園正式開業。首月，泡泡瑪特接待遊客達10萬人次，二消人數占比超過70%，衍生品銷售接近門店的6倍。公司後續將持續深耕MEGA、共鳴、innerflow等新品牌，通過樂園、遊戲等新興業務，與消費者建立更深的情感鏈接。我們認為，隨著公司遊戲等其他新業務陸續落地，IP變現渠道進一步拓寬，我們長期看好公司IP的運營能力和變現潛力。
IP monetization channel restructure toward diverse consumer market coverage
Four key channels:
Pop Mart said at the 2023 results conference that it will restructure its business into four major areas, which would help expand its IP monetization channels so that it can continue developing bestselling IPs:
1)IP incubation and operations;
2)Trendy toys and retail;
3)Theme parks and experiences (including trendy toy exhibitions); and
4)Digital entertainment (games and content).
Pop Land:
Pop Mart opened its first global theme park called Pop Land in Chaoyang Park, Beijing in September 2023, which attracted 100,000 visitors, more than 70% of whom were consumers, where sales of derivatives were nearly 6x those at its stores.
New businesses:
new brands in its development pipeline include MEGA, Gong and Innerflow, with which Pop Mart aims to strengthen emotional traction with consumers through emerging applications like parks and games. As the company launches new businesses like games one by one, we believe its IP monetization channels will widen and we are bullish about the company’s IP operating capabilities and monetization potential for the long term.
