专栏名称: 群邑智库

群邑智库作为群邑中国的智囊及知识管理中心，将全力负责发展群邑中国具有领先思想的媒体行业研究；提升第三方调研的运用；并对集团自主开发的工具、调研、系统进行全方位多层次管理。

Interpretation of macro data for the first quarter of 2021

群邑智库 · 公众号 · · 2021-03-31 18:00

正文

Follow GMK in WeChat to get insights anywhere anytime

On January 18, 2021, the National Bureau of statistics released the 2020 China Economic Annual Report, announcing that GDP exceeded 100 trillion for the first time. Then on March 15, it released a series of macro data, including total retail sales of consumer goods. In this Media express, we will provide an interpretation of relevant macro data. And since media spending and consumption are highly correlated, we will focus on consumer trends.

Key takeaways are as below：

In 2020, China’s total GDP exceeded 100 trillion for the first time, an increase of 2.3% YOY and simultaneously, China has eliminated absolute poverty. As 2021 is the first year of the new “Five-Year Plan”, grasping the development opportunities at the national level is of great importance.

In January and February in 2021, total retail sales of consumer goods increased significantly based on a low base. However, the epidemic is still impacting the service industry. However, with the increase of vaccination rates, the catering service industry will gradually recover.

Spring Festival boosted online and offline consumption. As the growth rate of all industries became positive, various media spending will be promoted.

‘100 trillion’ and ‘poverty alleviation’ are of great historical significance

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP of year 2020 is 101.5986 trillion yuan. Although integers do not have any special meanings in the traditional principles of economics, they have a significant impact on individuals and groups from the perspective of behavioral economics. Specifically, China was the only major economy that achieved positive economic growth after experiencing the epidemic and simultaneously achieved a historic breakthrough in GDP.

Table 1: GDP growth rate of the world's major economies 2015-2020

The national per capita disposable income was 32,189 yuan and increased by 2.1% after deducting price factors, which was basically in line with economic growth. Farmers’ per capita disposable income was 17,131 yuan, increasing 3.8% after deducting price factors. On February 25, President Xi Jinping announced that China successfully eliminated absolute poverty at the National Poverty Alleviation Summary and Commendation Conference.

Breaking through 100 trillion and eliminating absolute poverty are a satisfactory answer to the previous 13th Five-Year Plan. Looking ahead to 2021, the overseas dynamics of the epidemic is uncertain while the implementation of China's new "five-year plan“ is determined. Therefore, how to seize the opportunities at the national strategic level and enjoy the dividends is an indispensable factor for marketers to add to medium and long-term plan (for details of the "14th Five-Year Plan", please refer to the 10th express). In addition, media buying and brand marketing are both worthy investment in the long run.

The consumption recovery was obvious in Jan and Feb 2021

Based on the latest economic data released by the NBS on March 15, total retail sales of consumer goods in Jan and Feb 2021 increased by 33.8% YOY. Compared with the data in the same period in 2019, it increased by 6.4%, showing that the consumption trend has basically recovered.

Picture 1: Monthly Growth Rate of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and GDP

However, the epidemic is still impacting the service industry. In Jan and Feb, catering services revenue recovered to around 96% in the same period in 2019. The recovery rate is slower than that of the retail sales (catering services revenue accounts for about 10% of retail sales). In Jan and Feb 2021, the growth rate of retail sales of goods above designated size increased by 42.9% YOY, which was 10 percent higher than the growth rate of total retail sales. This shows that the recovery of retail sales of goods below designated size, which accounts for 55% of retail sales, was relatively slow. According to NBS, Enterprises (units) above designated size refer to those wholesale enterprises (units) of a certain scale, for example, hotel and catering enterprises (units) should reach an annual revenue from primary business of 2 million yuan and above. There are two potential reasons for the slow recovery. One is that that micro and small enterprises have not yet fully recovered, another is that the purchasing power of low-income groups has not been fully released. This year’s ‘Government Work Report’ put forward a series of measures to stabilize and expand consumption, including increasing income, accelerating the entry of e-commerce and express delivery into rural areas, expanding county and rural consumption, etc. It can be inferred that with the increase of vaccination rates and the implementation of these policies, the catering service industry and consumption of goods below designated size will further recover.

Festival boosted online and offline consumption and the growth rate of all industries became positive

Spring Festival is always an important chance to observe the vitality of China’s economy. The restrictions on homecoming during 2021 Spring Festival led to not only fewer returnees and promotion of production, but also release of consumers’ desire for shopping. According to the Ministry of Commerce, during the Spring Festival Golden Week (from New Year’s Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month), the national key retail and catering companies achieved sales of 821 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9% compared to same period of 2019. The restriction also promoted the consumption of household goods. What’s more, as the Spring Festival coincides with Valentine‘s Day, the consumption of fancy goods such as jewelry, cosmetics, and flower souvenirs was particularly prosperous. The data from Ministry of Commerce showed that the consumption of gold, silver and jewelry, garment, communication appliances, and household appliances increased by 160.8%, 107.1%, 39.0% and 29.9% YOY respectively. The sales of fitness equipment on some e-commerce platforms increased by 49% YOY. The movie market also became lively during the Spring Festival. According to statistics from Maoyan, the total box office revenue during 2021 Spring Festival exceeded 7.8 billion yuan, setting a new historical record for the same period.

From table 2, we can see that the consumption growth rate of each industry has become positive in 2021. Spring Festival boosted the demand for tobacco and liquor, and the sales of goods above designated size also showed a good trend. The consumption of upgraded categories of (such as communication equipment, automobiles, gold, silver and jewelry) and basic living categories (such as beverages and grain, oil and foodstuff) has returned to the level before outbreak. In 2020, the logic of consumption recovery was from on-site to offsite. However, in 2021, the logic of consumption growth in various industries will return to a normal state before the outbreak.

Table2: Mont hlyGrowth rate ofsub-items of the retail sales (2020-2021)

Online consumption has maintained a good momentum due to the restriction of homecoming and the shopping festivals on e-commerce platforms. The national online retail sales (physical goods and service) reached 1,758.7 billion yuan, increasing by 23.5% YOY. the online retail sales of physical goods (accounting for 20.7% of retail sales), was 1441.2 billion yuan, a YOY increase of 30.6%. With the steady recovery of offline traffic, media budget and promotion of most brands have returned to normal. Hence, the media spending is expected to increased in line with the growth of consumption.

Data Source:

National Bureau of statistics, IMF ‘World Economic Outlook’, Ministry of Commerce, Maoyan

Ailsa Gu

Interpretation of macro data for the first quarter of 2021

正文

请到「今天看啥」查看全文