对话 | 奥巴马首席反恐顾问莫娜科：恐袭后的悖论

政见CNPolitics · 公众号 · 社会 · 2017-05-24 21:22

正文

本期对话奥巴马首席反恐顾问、国土安全局顾问丽萨·莫娜科（Lisa Monaco）。莫娜科负责引导和研究反恐政策，预防和扰乱恐怖分子对美国的威胁。她的具体职责包括摧毁基地组织的核心成员以及在各地的基地组织附庸，引导击溃伊斯兰国的政策，以及建立预防和干扰恐怖威胁的合作网络。

川普上任后，美国政府的反恐战略，总结起来有两大特点。一方面，在国内边境采取了反常的极端措施，比如川普备受争议的 “穆斯林七国禁令”；另一方面，在海外维持了奥巴马时期的传统，持续对恐怖组织进行定点轰炸，比如在阿富汗针对 ISIS 发射的 “导弹之母”。然而，在国内边境政策的剧烈变化真的有必要吗？

据统计，近两年来在美军的空袭支持下，伊拉克政府军渐渐夺回了 ISIS 在伊拉克境内控制的底盘，从 2014 年夏天 40% 的峰值，缩小到如今不到 7%。在叙利亚，ISIS 也逐渐失势。“伊斯兰国之梦” 已然破碎。现在的问题是，在美国国内的极端主义自杀性袭击，源头在哪儿？是否如川普所言，恐怖分子随着大量难民入境，渗入美国？

芝加哥大学 CPOST（Chicago Project on Security and Threats），通过研究在过去 36 个月内被美国司法部（Justice Department）指控的从事伊斯兰国恐怖活动的 125 个个体（包括发起自杀性袭击身亡的恐怖分子个体。研究假设这些人如果没有身亡的话，将会被司法部指控），得出了如下三个结论。

125 人里，81% 是美国公民，其中 78% 是出生在美国。其他的 11% 持有绿卡，即在美国的永久居民。只有 8% 是非公民以及非绿卡持有者。（这说明，恐怖袭击主要在本土兴起。在 911 后，美国国土安全局和国家安全局加大力度对恐怖分子进行边境过滤。川普所说的 “强力审查”（Extreme Vetting）在 911 恐袭后，已然存在。）
在这 8% 的非公民以及非绿卡持有者中，只有 37% 来自川普禁令所包括的七个国家，63% 来自六个其他的中东和北非国家，五个南亚和中亚国家，以及三个欧洲国家。（所以，川普的禁令对于边境外的问题，仅仅只有 1/3 多一点的针对性）
这 8% 的外来者中，一般情况下，进入美国本土和最后从事恐怖袭击之间，有一个漫长的延迟期（Time Lag）。（这意味着，进入美国的这些个体，一开始并不一定有制造恐袭的意图，而是在美国本土受到极端主义的感召，正如美国本土生长的基地组织份子一样）

这样看来，川普的行政命令并不一定有必要。更让人担忧的是，如今 ISIS 招募全球反美青年，正在利用川普的反穆斯林论调。 ISIS 用大量精心制作的小视频，传播他们的理念和反美叙事，其中就加入了不少川普在竞选时对穆斯林世界的激烈言辞。美国当下激起的某种程度的反穆斯林情绪，反而成了 ISIS 最有效的招募材料。

对话文字

YANG: Hi.

向杨：你好！

LISA: Hi.

丽萨：你好。

YANG: I want to take a different stab [at this], and to be fair, terrorism, especially ISIS feeds on the oxygen of publicity. [LISA: Mhm.] And for me, I think that terrorism does not threaten the state, it does not threaten the economy unless we let them. It doesn't threaten the basic liberal Western value unless we let them [LISA: Mhm.], but it seems like people have this overblown understanding or image of terrorism, especially ISIS, which focuses on publicity a lot, unlike Taliban or other terrorist groups. So my question is, to what extent is this overblown depiction of terrorism or terrorist attacks detrimental to the real work of counter-terrorism efforts [LISA: Mhm.], and what is the role of Homeland Security or the FBI to starve terrorism of this oxygen of publicity?

向杨：我想关于反恐说一个不同的看法。平心而论，恐怖主义，特别是伊斯兰国（ISIS），他们对曝光度的依赖犹如氧气。[丽萨：嗯。] 在我看来，恐怖主义并不威胁国家；恐怖主义也不威胁经济，除非我们放任他们；恐怖主义也不威胁基本的西方自由价值观，除非我们放任他们。[丽萨：嗯。]但人们现在似乎是谈恐怖主义必色变，对恐怖主义的认识过于夸张，尤其是对很擅长博关注的伊斯兰国，它不像塔利班或其他恐怖主义组织。所以我的问题是，在多大程度上，这种对恐怖主义或恐怖主义袭击夸大其辞的描述会对反恐的实际工作造成阻碍？[丽萨：嗯。]还有，国土安全部门或联邦调查局在遏制恐怖主义中应扮演怎样的角色，从而让恐怖主义呼吸不到曝光度带来的氧气？

莫娜科在白宫

LISA: So it's a really good question and it's something we've got to grapple with, right. I mean, this goes back a little bit to the point about the executive order, right, which is if we take steps that feed the recruitment narrative, we're fueling that messaging and we shouldn't be in the business of that. Look, the most basic definition of terrorism is to inflict terror on a civilian population, right, and so they win if we change our behavior as a result of what they do. So we've gotta keep that as our lodestar and not lose our values in responding to these terror attacks, but by the same token, as I said before, I think that we've got to be willing to demonstrate to the public the steps we are taking to address the threat, whether it's to so-called "soft targets," like sporting events or train stations or airports, to be visible about the steps we're taking, to give the public confidence. I'll give you an example. I came from the Justice Department, as we've now said, after 15 years, plus years, being in the Justice Department, where my job was not to talk to the press or do anything public really, but to focus on the facts and the law, et cetera. So when I got to the White House and I had the folks in the White House communications office asking me to talk to people like Jim Sciutto, I said, "No, I don't want to talk to the press." [LAUGHTER]

丽萨：这是个很好的问题，也是我们必须解决的问题。我是说，这个问题得回过去一点说说行政命令。（注：第 13769 号行政命令，《阻止外国恐怖分子进入美国的国家保护计划》，是特朗普在 2017 年 1 月 27 日签署并即刻生效的行政命令。该法令旨在禁止 7 个位于中东及非洲、且为穆斯林国家的人民入境美国，对拥有美国签证或绿卡身份者也有效（已被豁免）；同时暂停难民接纳项目 120 天，以及 90 天内禁止来自利比亚、伊朗、伊拉克、索马里、苏丹、叙利亚和也门等 7 国国民入境美国，其中叙利亚的期限为 “无限期”。禁令最后被西雅图联邦法官詹姆斯‧罗巴特（James Robart）于 2 月 3 日做出裁决，全国暂缓执行。）如果我们的对策增强了恐怖分子招募的叙事方式（注：特朗普的行政命令被认为增强了反穆斯林的叙事，有助于伊斯兰国招募），那就助长了他们的气焰，我们不应该那么做。恐怖主义最基本定义就是，让平民恐慌，对吧？所以他们能得逞，是因为我们按他们的行动而被动应对。所以我们必须把这点作为指导原则，同时不能在应对恐袭时丢掉我们的价值观。（注：隐射特朗普的行政命令违背了美国包容的价值观）但同样的道理，正如我之前所说，我认为我们必须主动向公众表明，我们目前采取的每一步应对措施，像应对所谓的 “软性目标”，如体育赛事、火车站或机场等，都要让公众看到我们在做什么，以提高公众的信心。我举一个例子。我说过，我在司法部工作了 15 年多，我的工作不是与新闻界交谈，也不负责公众事务，而是专注于事实和法律等等。所以当我来到白宫时（指丽莎从司法部调到白宫担任首席反恐顾问），白宫通讯办公室的人让我和吉姆·科普托（注：即现在台上的主持人，CNN 首席国家安全记者，报道所有关于美国国家安全的事务）等人谈谈。我说：“不，我不想和新闻界对话。”[笑]

JIM: —"why waste my time," right.

吉姆：—她说 “我干嘛费那个劲？”

LISA: Or saying, well, you know, we've had this threat, this terrorist event or something, can you describe for the public or the press or somebody the steps we're taking. And I was reluctant in that regard. But I found that how we communicate—not me, but others, and certainly the president—how we communicate about the steps we're taking to address the threat is as much a part of the security job as running down every terrorist league. Because if the public doesn't feel confident in the steps you're taking, you're gonna be feeding that unease that the terrorists want to have in the first place.

丽萨：或者我也可以选择说，我们正面临着这样一个威胁，这类恐怖事件云云，你能给公众或是新闻界或是谁描述一下我们正在采取的措施吗？当时我不太愿意那么做。但是我发现我们沟通的方式——不单是我，还有其他人，当然也包括总统，我们如何就当前所采取的反恐措施进行沟通，这的确也是安全工作的一部分。因为公众如果对你所采取的措施没有信心，那你等于一开始就在滋养恐怖分子想要的那种紧张气氛。

JIM: If I could just follow on that just in terms of the role of the media, when I was at ABC, I had a debate with president of ABC at the time—this is very recent, very soon after 9/11—when we had a habit, really, of every time Al Qaeda released a message, we'd put that thing on the air right away. [LISA: Yup.] I mean, they had a direct line from the caves of Afghanistan to the American people, and I said, "Why do we do that?" You know, if there's news in it, why do we repeat the same crap over and over. [LISA: Yup.] And I remember saying to him that during the IRA days—the British used to use an actor's voice for Gerry Adams, you know, at the time, the Sinn Fein leader, and I was like, let's use the chipmunk's voice for bin Laden [LISA: Yeah.], let's just mess with him. [LAUGHTER] [LISA: Yeah.] Do you think that we—I kind of know your answer, I mean—

吉姆：容我再接着他的问题问两句，就是说到媒体在反恐中的角色。我还在美广新闻工作时，我和那里的总裁进行了辩论——辩论就发生在 9/11 后不久。当时我们有个惯例，每次基地组织释放信息，我们就马上对其进行直播。[丽萨：是的。]就好比有一条通讯线，把他们在阿富汗藏身的洞穴和美国人民直接连起来了。我就问：“为什么要这样做？” 就这么个消息而已，我们为什么要一再重复它。[丽萨：是的。]我记得当时我对他说，在爱尔兰共和军那个时期，（注：Irish Republican Army, 简称 IRA,。是反对英国政府的武装组织，长时间通过暴力活动实现政治诉求，故被许多国家视为恐怖组织）英国曾让一个演员模仿格里·亚当斯（注：爱尔兰共和派政客）的声音，就是当时新芬党的首领。（注：Sinn Féin，中文译为 “我们”，是一个北爱尔兰社会主义政党，也是爱尔兰共和军的官方政治组织。该党主张建立一个全爱尔兰共和国）我当时就说，我们用花栗鼠的声音模仿本·拉登[丽萨：没错。]搞乱他们。 [笑] [丽萨：没错。]那你认为我们——我好像知道你的答案，就是——

LISA: Yeah.

丽萨：没错。

JIM: —do you think we over-blow—not over-blow—but maybe over-cover the terrorism spread? But I also know you know what our job is [LISA: Yeah.], we gotta cover the news. Is there is a way that we could do it differently that would undermine the power of a group like ISIS?

吉姆：——那你认为我们是夸大了——不能说夸大——应该说是过度曝光了恐怖行径吗？我还知道，我们的工作就是[丽萨：是的。]，报道新闻。那有没有一种不同的报道方式能削弱像 ISIS 这种组织的力量呢？

LISA: So I do think this is really hard, right. [JIM: Mhm.] And it became—it was most stark, I will tell you, it was a very difficult time, the summer of 2014, which in addition to the mounting campaign against—and coalition campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, there were the horrible, devastating images coming out of Syria [JIM: Mm.] of Americans being killed, American hostages being beheaded, brutally. And I remember fuming at the TV in my office [JIM: Mhm.], that those videos were being—or that those images were being run. Understanding that it's news, it was the worst type of news, it was horrific news. But you had terrorists with our brave citizens in orange jumpsuits—which I also think was also probably not an accident—getting their message out. [JIM: Mhm.] I think it was probably a real, legitimate struggle for news organizations, I don't know. I wasn't in those conversations. But I have since seen the change in not adding to ISIS's messaging by curtailing the use of some of that footage. So I think that it's really important to constantly be questioning how we may be feeding into their goals [JIM: Mhm.], and to be willing to adjust even if it means that somebody's gonna switch off your channel.

丽萨：我觉得这真的很难。[吉姆：是的。]而且它变得——有一次特别明显，我说下这个，那真是个困难时期，就是 2014 年夏天，当时越来越多的人反对，联合起来反对 ISIS，在伊拉克和叙利亚都有。当时还有骇人的图片从叙利亚流出，上面是美国人遇害[吉姆：是的。]美国人质被残忍地斩首。我在办公室的电视上看到时都气炸了。那些视频正在播放，那些画面一帧帧播放。我知道那是新闻，是最糟糕的新闻，是可怕的新闻。但是，恐怖分子挟持了我们勇敢的公民，让他们穿上橙色连身裤——我认为这或许不是巧合——他们在释放信号。[吉姆：是的。]我觉得这可能是新闻机构真正合法的两难抉择，但也说不准。我没参与那些对话。但那之后我就看到了变化，就是不要帮 ISIS 宣传，通过删减某些视频片段。所以我认为，一定要不断质问我们怎么就让他们得逞了。[吉姆：是的。]还要主动调整策略，即使这意味着有人可能会换台。

JIM: Yeah.

吉姆：没错。

特别鸣谢 Leon 的英翻中和字幕制作

向杨的微博：向杨Alan

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