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百融雲-W: AI+垂類科技領航者,AI行業應用落地開花

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-07-03 17:35

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Bairong

(6608 HK)


AI+垂類科技領航者,AI行業應用落地開花


Initiating coverage: industry LLMs’ applicability sweetens growth prospects for vertical tech leader Bairong

TP: HKD15.50    BUY (Initiation)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

國內數據分析龍頭,客羣優勢持續鞏固公司地位

百融雲作爲國內領先的AI科技服務提供商,憑藉其在決策式AI和生成式AI領域的深厚技術積累,通過雲+本地化部署和MaaS+BaaS服務模式,爲百行千業提供全流程數智化服務,顯著提升了自動化審批率和風險管理效率,助力互聯網信貸業務實現快速增長。根據公司披露數據,百融雲創AI模型平均每天調用3億次以上,雲平臺穩定性高達99.998%,以實際場景業務爲痛點的產品研發深受市場歡迎。公司紮根垂類領域累積數據優勢,目前已累計服務機構客戶超7000家,覆蓋6大國有銀行、12家全國性股份制銀行、上千家城農商銀行、保險公司等金融機構及各類垂直企業客戶。2023年,公司客戶留存率99%,客戶滿意度97%,已具備客戶粘性和可持續盈利能力。


Chinese data analytics leader continues to build up customer base

Leading Chinese AI tech service provider Bairong has amassed deep resources in AI decision-making and generative AI. It provides full-process digital services to hundreds of industries via both cloud and localized deployment. Under two main business models of model-as-a-service (MaaS) and business-as-a-service (BaaS), Bairong enables much higher automated approval rates and risk management efficiency, while driving rapid growth of the internet credit business. The AI model via Bairong Cloud gets more than 300m calls a day on average and cloud platform stability is up to 99.998%, based on company data. Its product development business, which utilizes actual business scenarios as pain points, is highly popular in the market. The company built up a data advantage through vertical market expansion and currently serves more than 7,000 institutional clients, including 6 major state-owned banks, 12 national joint-stock banks, thousands of urban and rural commercial banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions, and various vertical corporate clients. Bairong’s strong customer stickiness is evidenced in a 99% customer retention rate and 97% customer satisfaction as of 2023, which we believe augurs well for sustainable profitability.


公司營收增速強勢,利潤端持續受益

公司憑藉在數據分析領域的較高市佔率以及在生成式AI領域的積極佈局,從而實現了MaaS業務收入的穩定增長以及BaaS業務收入的快速增速。FY2023公司總營收增長幅度較大,主要得益於BaaS-金融行業雲的收入飛躍。公司目前主要通過增收而非降本的方式提升利潤,其費用持續增長的同時,實現了可觀的收益。從FY2019至FY2023,公司三項費用佔營收比重逐年下降,經調整淨利潤、淨利率持續提升。未來公司內部將共同作用AI大模型,在公司技術變現的同時,對其內部業務進行降本增效,使得費用端得到有效控制,未來有望在利潤端實現突破。


Strong revenue growth the key catalyst of the company’s profit growth

Armed with a large data analysis market share and a growing generative AI business, Bairong’s MaaS revenue is growing steadily and its BaaS revenue is ramping up fast. Total revenue grew strongly in 2023, mainly due to a revenue spike in BaaS financial industry cloud. The company drives profits through revenue increases rather than cost reductions; hence, while expenses are rising, profits are also considerable. The company’s three major expense categories have been shrinking in proportion to revenue year after year, while adjusted net profits and net margins have continued to rise. We expect Bairong will synergize AI large language models (LLM) to manage cost, monetize technology and raise efficiency internally, so as to bring about greater profitability.


數智化浪潮洶涌,行業模型加速崛起

隨着《數字中國建設整體佈局規劃》的發佈和金融科技發展規劃的持續推進,中國金融科技企業面臨着前所未有的機遇。政策的大力支持和科技的不斷進步推動了金融數智化的快速發展。儘管面臨徵信數據缺乏、徵信體系不均和不良貸款增加等挑戰,通過大數據和人工智能技術的廣泛應用,金融服務的數字化轉型和智能化升級有望加速解決過往問題。與此同時,相較於通用大模型,行業大模型展現出較強的落地應用潛力,不僅能夠精準適配特定業務需求,還能有效提升風險管理能力。隨着技術的不斷進步和政策的深入推動,行業大模型的發展將是金融數智化轉型的核心驅動力,預計將有力提升金融服務效率和改進風險控制能力,爲金融行業帶來深刻的變革。


Surging digitalization drives growth momentum of industry LLMs

Chinese fintech companies are currently enjoying unprecedented opportunities with the release of the national plan toward building a digital China and the advancement of the country’s fintech development plan. Strong policy support and rolling technological advancements have pushed the rapid development of financial digitalization. Despite the challenges of a lack of credit data, uneven credit systems and growing non-performing loans, we believe the digitalization and smart upgrading of financial services will more quickly resolve past problems through extensive applications of big data and AI technologies.


Furthermore, unlike generalized LLMs, industry LLMs have strong potential in regard to practical applications on the ground and they can more accurately adapt to specific business needs while also more effectively improve risk management capabilities. With technological advancements and rigorous policy promotion, we believe the development of industry LLMs will be the key driver of financial, digital and smart transformation. We expect more efficient financial services and improved risk controls to render profound changes in the financial industry.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


盈利預測

我們認爲隨着公司業務逐漸拓寬至非金融領域,以及行業大模型落地速度的優勢,公司未來營收增長潛力較大。我們預測FY2024-FY2026公司總收入分別爲30.8/37.0/43.4億元,歸母淨利潤分別爲3.9/5.3/5.8億元。考慮到公司業務屬性,我們選取宇信科技、匯量科技、恆生電子、千方科技、匯通達以及螢石網絡作爲可比公司,FY2024年可比公司平均PE爲23.33,考慮到港股流動性折價,給予公司2024年略低於平均值的18倍PE,對應市值70.2億元,目標股價爲15.50港元,給予“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

We anticipate strong revenue growth ahead in view of the gradual broadening of the company’s business to non-financial areas, as well as industry LLMs’ advantage in implementation speed. We forecast revenue of RMB3.08bn/3.70bn/4.34bn in 2024/ 25/26E, with net profit at RMB390m/530m/580m. Considering the company’s business attributes, we selected as valuation peers Yusys Technologies, Mobvista, Hundsun Technologies, China Transinfo Technology, Huitongda Network and Hangzhou EZVIZ Network. Relative to their average PE of 23.33x in 2024E, and taking into account the liquidity discount of Hong Kong stocks, we assign to Bairong a PE of 18x in 2024E, which is slightly below average, corresponding to market cap of RMB7.02bn and our target price of HKD15.50. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating.


風險提示: 港股市場流動性不及預期、AI科技發展及應用落地不及預期、宏觀經濟復甦不及預期、公司的成本控制不及預期、估值體系差異風險、數據保密和法律相關風險、公司牌照無法續期風險


Risks include: lower-than-expected Hong Kong stock market liquidity; slower-than-expected AI technology development and application; a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic recovery; lower-than-expected cost control; valuation system variation risks; data confidentiality and legal risks; and the company not being able to renew its license.



Email: [email protected]

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