Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola said his side has just a one percent chance of progress to the Champions League last 16 against Real Madrid on Wednesday, but the club's new recruits could offer it a lifeline.
City blew a late 2-1 lead in the first leg of the playoffs last week at home to lose 3-2 to the reigning European champion.
That collapse was part of a wider trend this season, as Guardiola's ageing squad has struggled to last the distance, particularly when the intensity is turned up on Champions League nights.
As a consequence, City broke with its usual transfer policy, spending big in January to bring in Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis and Nico Gonzalez for fees totaling 170 million pounds ($214 million).
▲ Manchester City's Omar Marmoush (left) and Nico Gonzalez will be crucial when their club faces Real Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League playoffs on Wednesday. AFP
However, none of them started the first leg against Madrid. Marmoush was the only one to even make an appearance for the final few minutes off the bench, as Gonzalez and Khusanov were unused substitutes and Reis was not registered in City's European squad.
Guardiola may now regret that decision after Marmoush, Gonzalez and Khusanov all played pivotal roles in arguably City's best performance of the season on Saturday, when Newcastle was blown away 4-0 at the Etihad.
Marmoush hogged the headlines thanks to his first-half hat-trick, finally offering City another potent scoring threat to complement Erling Haaland.
Khusanov recovered from his nightmare Premier League debut against Chelsea last month, when he gave away a goal inside three minutes and could have been sent off shortly afterwards.
This time the Uzbek showed why City paid Lens a reported 40 million euros ($42 million) for his services.
The 20-year-old's pace helped sniff out the danger posed by Newcastle's Alexander Isak, and could be what the visiting side needs to combat the threat of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Guardiola, though, reserved special praise for the impact of Gonzalez in bringing the City midfield the stability it has lacked since Ballon d'Or winner Rodri suffered a serious knee injury in September.
The Barcelona academy graduate seems certain to start on his return to Spain, with his manager already hailing the 23-year-old as a "mini Rodri".
Gonzalez a game changer
"The balance of the team looks much, much better already with Gonzalez in it," said former City defender Micah Richards.
"City have got players who can score goals and hurt Real, but he brings some stability behind them, which they will need if they are to manage the game in Madrid.
"Do they have more chance of beating Real with him in the starting 11? Without a doubt."
Yet, even at its best during the golden years of Guardiola's reign in Manchester, City has often found the might of Madrid too tough a nut to crack in the Champions League.
This is the fourth consecutive season the sides have met, with a 5-1 aggregate rout en route to winning the competition for the first time in 2023 being City's only success.
Three years ago it seemed to be cruising into the final with a two-goal lead heading into stoppage time of the semifinal second leg, before Rodrygo's quick-fire double sent the tie to extra-time and, ultimately, Madrid to a 14th European crown.
Last year it was penalties that got the Spanish giant over the line after City dominated the majority of two draws in the quarterfinals.
