北约从来都不是一个平等的联盟。无论是经济、政治还是军事上，美国始终是占据压倒性优势的一方 。 美英关系从一开始就被认为是最重要的，并以“特殊关系”这一说法加以强调，而这种说法恰恰体现了不平等。几十年来，英国仅在极少数情况下违背美国的意愿独立行事。事实上，英国的外交政策基本是由华盛顿、而非伦敦制定的。如果说英国是一个极端的例子，那么就整体而言，欧洲也是如此，即使法国的程度稍弱。北约是美国主导的联盟，而欧洲在其中的角色是支持并表现出应有的服从。

在特朗普的第二个任期之前，已经有很多警告表明他对欧洲感到不满：欧洲未能尽到自身责任，过度依赖美国，尤其是在军费开支方面。此外，他还公开谈论了对欧盟出口到美国的商品加征关税。然而，当特朗普政府在1月份开始攻击并贬低欧洲国家，并在俄乌冲突问题上转变态度时，欧洲国家显得毫无准备。他们无法理解这一变化，也没有任何B计划。西方联盟让他们变得幼稚化，除了作为美国的配角之外，他们无法想象自己还能扮演别的什么角色。

2017年到2024年，我们曾看到欧洲盲目效仿美国针对中国的政策。 自特朗普政府远离欧洲以来，不少欧洲领导人陷入了迷茫。他们对此种“核变局”毫无准备，而这恰恰是1945年以来欧洲地缘政治环境的最大变化。

这告诉了我们什么？最引人注目的事实是，尽管欧盟已经成立并存在，但欧洲始终没有形成对自身全球角色、身份和利益的独立认识。所有这些都被纳入并从属于一个更广泛的概念——“西方”。在这个概念里，欧洲的主要责任是支持并追随美国。在最戏剧性的情况下，这种思维模式不复存在，特朗普政府上任不到两个月便已使其形同虚设，欧洲陷入震惊。即将成为德国下一任总理的默茨对欧洲新现实的描述最为直白：欧洲需要从美国“实现独立”。然而，迄今为止，这种“独立”仅限于继续支持乌克兰和增加国防开支。 至于在美国缺席的情况下，欧洲是否会派兵直接介入乌克兰冲突，这种想法纯属天方夜谭。

有一点是显而易见的： 在如今这个新世界，欧洲的重要性将大不如前。 在这个瞬息万变的世界里，权力正在不可阻挡地向中国、印度和“全球南方”转移。面对对自己日益冷漠、渐行渐远的美国，欧洲需要寻找新的市场、新的投资来源，以及与正在增长而非衰退的世界建立新的联系。

NATO was never an alliance of equals. The US was always the overwhelmingly dominant partner - economically, politically and militarily. The relationship between the US and Britain, which from the outset was seen as the single most important, as expressed in the phrase "special relationship," was typical of this inequality. Over a period of many decades, Britain only acted independently, and contrary to US wishes, on a handful of occasions. Its foreign policy was effectively made in Washington DC rather than London. If Britain was an extreme example, the same in general, if less extreme in the case of France, applied to Europe. This was the US' alliance, in which Europe's role was to support and show due deference.

There was plenty of warning, prior to Trump's second term, that he was dissatisfied with Europe: that the latter was not pulling its weight, that it was too dependent on the US, especially when it came to military spending, and there was open talk about the introduction of tariffs on EU exports to the US. Yet, when the Trump administration started to attack and deride European countries in January, and then side with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, the European countries appeared totally unprepared, uncomprehending, and devoid of any plan B. Decades of being in thrall to the US had deprived them of any sense of what life might be like without the US, or the need at least to entertain such a possibility. The Western alliance had left them infantilized, unable to conceive of any other role than as the junior dance partner of the US.

We saw this during the period 2017-24 when Europe blindly copied the US' hostility to China. Ever since the Trump administration's distance from Europe, European leaders have been running around like headless chickens. There had been zero preparation for this nuclear eventuality, which was the biggest shift in Europe's geopolitical circumstances since 1945.

What does this tell us? Most strikingly, notwithstanding the creation and existence of the European Union, Europe has not had an independent view of its role in the world, of its identity and interests. All were subsumed in and subordinated to a wider concept, namely that of the West, in which Europe's main responsibility was to support and follow the US. In the most dramatic circumstances, that mode of thinking has been swept away, rendered effectively meaningless in less than two months of the Trump administration taking office. The European capitals are in a state of shock. Their worldview has collapsed. Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become Germany's next chancellor, described Europe's new world most bluntly of all: Europe needed to "achieve independence" from the US. So far this has been limited to continuing support for Ukraine and greater defense expenditure. The idea that Europe, in the absence of the US, will come to the military rescue of Ukraine, with troops on the ground even, is a fantasy.

One thing is clear: in this new world, Europe will matter less than it did in its role as a support act for the US in the old one. To prosper and stay relevant, Europe will have to reinvent itself for a new and rapidly changing world in which power is remorselessly shifting to China, India, and the Global South. In the face of a disinterested US that is taking its leave of Europe, it needs to find new markets, new sources of investment, and new connections with what is growing rather than declining as Europe itself is doing.

With the US turning away and putting up the trade barriers, Europe needs to think afresh about its relationship with China. This now seems more likely than unlikely. Europe can no longer afford to look down on China as its inferior, politically, economically, and culturally. It cannot afford to treat China as an enemy or a miscreant in the manner of the recent past. It must cast aside its superiority complex, which has long been an anachronism, and treat China as its equal.