这是选·美的第
952
篇文章
特朗普白宫上周五宣称将对总值约500亿美元的中国输美商品加征关税，并于昨日表示将可能对华追加2000亿美元额外关税措施。中美资本市场价值均在周一开盘应声下跌，在一年内又一次被所谓“中美贸易战”的政治风险笼罩。
本文作者 薄正源，文章原发自
知险数据
（ID
:
griskcn）。知险数据 （GRISK）致力于打造全球政治风险大数据平台——为金融机构、跨国企业和对外投资从业人员提供全球市场的风险事件、宏观趋势、政策监管、利益相关方、全球供应链等全维度的实时数据和可视化智能分析产品。
图片来源：知险数据 GRISK
就职一年半不到的时间中，特朗普已经屡次对中美两国股市造成与今天相似的震动。与过去历任总统的言论和政策对资本市场价值的影响相比，特朗普的作风显然更高频，风险信号释放更为快速，造成的资产震荡幅度更强。而这种令市场寝食难安的“更高、更快、更强”，很大程度上归功于他的推特。
坊间诸如“特朗普推特治国”，“川普推特一声吼，各级市场抖三抖”的说法虽然含有一定娱乐成分，却也并非完全是网络戏谑。知险数据 (GRisk.cn) 对特朗普就任以来所有提到中国的推特进行了语义和情绪分析，所得结果恰恰与A股市场价值波动形成了一定关联，整体趋势颇为拟合。
也就是说市场在中美相关议题上及时且明确地“回应”着特朗普在推特上的种种对华言论。
图片来源：知险数据 GRISK
而通过对特朗普就职至今的推文内容分析，这种“
特朗普推文-A股
”之间的联系及其先决条件逐渐变得清晰明朗
。正是因为特朗普与中国有关的推文重心是与二级市场价格有紧密关联的贸易问题，使他的推文内容得以形成这种贴切的政治风险价值传递。
特朗普中美相关推文图云
图片来源：知险数据 GRISK
特朗普关于中国的推特措辞之中，除去"China(中国)"一词外，"trade(贸易)"一词也不出意外地成为了使用频率最高的词语。同时“朝鲜”一词作为中美贸易关系调整的变量，也屡次被特朗普在涉华推文中提及。特朗普在2017年4月16日的推文（见下表）直接阐述了这种关系。
另外值得注意的一点是特朗普推文内容的驱动因素。特朗普的推文受众并非全世界读者，而是美国人（选）民。因此推特内容——即便是与中国相关的推特内容——也是用于获取美国读者支持的工具。这一点可以参照2018年4月4日特朗普的推文，在提及中国对美贸易顺差时，特朗普的重心放在了批判上一任政府上面。
4/16/2017
Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? We will see what happens!
4/21/2017
China is very much the economic lifeline to North Korea so while nothing is easy if they want to solve the North Korean problem they will.
7/5/2017
Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us - but we had to give it a try!
11/9/2017
I don’t blame China I blame the incompetence of past Admins for allowing China to take advantage of the U.S. on trade leading up to a point where the U.S. is losing $100's of billions. How can you blame China for taking advantage of people that had no clue? I would've done same!
11/10/2017
I am leaving China for #APEC2017 in Vietnam. @FLOTUS Melania is staying behind to see the zoo and of course the Great WALL of China before going to Alaska to greet our AMAZING troops.
3/10/2018
Chinese President XI JINPING and I spoke at length about the meeting with KIM JONG UN of North Korea. President XI told me he appreciates that the U.S. is working to solve the problem diplomatically rather than going with the ominous alternative. China continues to be helpful!
4/4/2018
We are not in a trade war with China that war was lost many years ago by the foolish or incompetent people who represented the U.S. Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue!
4/8/2018
President Xi and I will always be friends no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!
4/11/2018
So much Fake News about what is going on in the White House. Very calm and calculated with a big focus on open and fair trade with China the coming North Korea meeting and of course the vicious gas attack in Syria. Feels great to have Bolton; Larry K on board. I (we) are
5/21/2018
China must continue to be strong; tight on the Border of North Korea until a deal is made. The word is that recently the Border has become much more porous and more has been filtering in. I want this to happen and North Korea to be VERY successful but only after signing!
特朗普中国相关推特词频：
图片来源：知险数据 GRISK
特朗普关于中国的所有推文的情绪指数中存在
大幅且高频的双向波动
，可理解为特朗普对华态度的频繁剧烈转变。特朗普有意识地在与中国相关的推文中保持着正负两极的平衡和频繁切换，这种切换的力度是根据他自身受到的中美关系相关本土政治压力而决定的。这种看似矛盾的频繁转折恰恰揭示了他对推特这一“输出端”的使用策略的两点启示：
