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中農立華: 公司主業穩步復甦,出海業務加速佈局!

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-07-05 22:47

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Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences

(603970 CH)


公司主業穩步復甦,出海業務加速佈局!


Initiating coverage: core business in stable recovery, while the international market buildout gains

TP:RMB30.00    BUY(Initiation)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

中農立華:農藥流通龍頭服務商,服務規模全國領先

中農立華前身爲中國供銷聯社的成員,具備全國性的倉儲配送和銷售服務網絡、專業的植保技術服務團隊和完善的產業鏈佈局。公司收入和利潤規模總體保持增長趨勢,公司營業總收入4年CAGR爲25%;歸母淨利潤4年CAGR爲17 %。從公司業務板塊來看,公司農藥流通收入規模當前佔據主要地位,種子流通肩負使命,植保收入作爲重要補充。


Company profile: China’s largest-scale pesticide distributor and service provider

About SAL: formerly a member of the All China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives (ACFSMC), Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences (SAL) has built up a nationwide warehousing, distribution, sales and service network run by an accomplished crop protection technical service team. Its business spans the full industry value chain.


Financials: SAL’s revenues and profits have generally trended upward: revenue tracks a 4-year CAGR of 25% and net profit rose at a 4-year CAGR of 17%. Among its business divisions, pesticide distribution is the main revenue driver, followed by seed distribution, with crop protection services contributing key supplemental earnings.


行業:糧食安全戰略需要現代農資供應鏈助力,一帶一路政策下央企加速走出去

1)國內市場,公司助力國內糧食安全大戰略。糧食安全是國家安全重要基石,而現代農業供應鏈是提升糧食安全的主要抓手。我們認爲現代農業供應鏈有利於增加信息透明度、節省生產成本,並且糧食安全依賴供應鏈的現代化程度。2)國外市場,公司作爲央企踐行走出去佈局。近年央企作爲共建“一帶一路”的“先行軍”與“主力軍”,參與建設了一大批示範性項目。央企在全球190個國家(地區)有8000多個機構和項目,境外資產總額近8萬億元,較10年前翻了一倍,並不斷探索提升企業國際競爭力的路徑。


Macros: supply chain enhances China’s food security; CSOEs push B&R exports

China market: SAL helps drive China’s food security, which is a cornerstone of national security, with a modernized agricultural supply chain the main means to improving food security. Since a modern agricultural supply chain helps increase data transparency and saves production costs, food security effectiveness would depend on the extent of modernization in a supply chain.


Global buildout: as one of China’s centrally managed SOEs (CSOEs), SAL drives a globalization strategy in line with the pioneering role of CSOEs as core drivers of the country’s collaborative Belt and Road Initiative (B&R). B&R is a global infrastructural development strategy responsible for a multitude of pilot projects, with CSOEs running more than 8,000 institutions and projects in 190 markets around the world. Their total foreign assets amount to nearly RMB8tr, having doubled in the past 10 years. They are constantly exploring ways to enhance Chinese companies’ global competitiveness.


中農立華是供銷社體系內唯一農藥流通上市平臺,多元業務協同發展

作爲中農集團下屬唯一農藥流通上市平臺以及國內農藥流通龍頭,公司已建立覆蓋全國主要糧食產區的倉儲配送和銷售服務網絡,能夠高效服務廣大農戶;集農藥採購、銷售、分裝加工、植保技術服務、植保機械經營爲一體,2023年公司農藥流通業務營收達104億元。公司提供國內專業權威的原藥價格指數服務和行業領先的分裝加工配套服務,其資訊服務已成爲市場行情風向標。2022年,中農立華收購中農種業股權,開啓“種子+農藥”協同發展的新篇章。中農種業旗下有“泰豐A”、“太麥198”等衆多優質水稻、小麥、玉米育種材料與品種。中農立華在農藥製劑和流通領域積累的渠道資源與中農種業的研發經驗形成優勢互補,有望帶動農藥與種子業務的雙向增長。


Scarce stock: sole listed China pesticide distribution platform; diverse businesses

Diverse businesses: as China’s only listed distribution platform, SAL leads the pesticide industry and its storage, distribution, sales and service network covers major grain production areas across the country. This positioning enables the company to efficiently service vast numbers of farmers in terms of collective pesticide procurements, sales, packaging and processing services, as well as crop protection services and crop protection machinery operations. Pesticide distribution generated RMB10.4bn in revenue in 2023. SAL provides authoritative technical price index services and industry-leading packaging and processing support services for the Chinese market. Its data service provides market trend indicators.


Seed synergy: SAL invested in a stake in Sino-Agri Seed Holding (SAS) in 2022 and started to develop both seed and pesticide businesses in tandem. SAS owns many premium rice, wheat and corn varietals and crop breeding materials, including Taifeng A and Taimai 198. SAL’s deep channel resources in pesticide formulations and distribution complement SAS’s R&D experience, which increase their combined advantage. We expect both businesses will grow in tandem.


公司進軍海外市場,“走出去”加速!

公司國際業務覆蓋90多個國家和地區,近幾年境外收入增長快,2022年收入突破40億,與國內外具有核心競爭力的農藥製造企業建立了長期穩定的合作伙伴關係。2014年起,公司重點推進海外登記工作,已在數十個國家開展了包括自主登記和支持登記在內的登記工作。2019年公司與南京紅太陽強強聯合,加快國際化佈局,提升全球影響力。2023年公司加大與業內頭部企業的合作力度,併發布新品牌Logo及理念,提升海外影響力。截止2023年底,中農立華累計開展登記3599項,獲得登記1735項,位於行業前列。未來,公司將繼續實施差異化措施,加快“走出去”進軍海外市場。


Globalization: brand refresh; R&D registrations drive strategic global buildout

Widening footprint: SAL’s international footprint spans more than 90 countries and regions. Its foreign business revenue has risen rapidly in recent years and shot past RMB4bn in 2022. Stable long-term partnerships with pesticide manufacturers help maintain the company’s core competitiveness in both the Chinese and foreign markets. We expect it will continue to implement various measures to expand its global footprint by entering more foreign markets.


It has made the following major measures to date:

•2014 onwards: focusing on obtaining product R&D registrations in foreign markets and the registration process in dozens of countries, both independently and collaboratively.

•2019: collaborating with Nanjing Red Sun to expedite its global business buildout and deepen its global influence.

•2023: expanding cooperation with industry leaders, while it launched a new logo and brand concept to raise its international profile. SAL’s product R&D activity places the company at the industry forefront, developing to register 3,599 substances and registering 1,735 as of end-2023.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


盈利預測和投資建議: 我們預計 2024-2026年,公司實現營收 116/132/156億元,淨利潤2.50/3.18/4.22億元,同比增長11%/27%/33%。我們認爲中農立華作爲供銷社旗下唯一農藥流通上市平臺,其渠道網絡佈局全國主要糧食產區,有望助力國內糧食安全大戰略,具備稀缺性;公司積極開拓國內海外業務,並推動農藥、種子等多元業務協同發展,具備較強成長性。我們看好公司未來發展潛力,給予2025年25倍PE,目標價30元,給予“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

We forecast SAL will generate revenue of RMB11.6bn/13.2bn/15.6bn and net profit of RMB250m/318m/422m in 2024/25/26E, up 11/27/33%. SAL represents a scarce stock as the ACFSMC’s only listed pesticide distribution platform. Well positioned with its channel network covering China’s grain belt, we expect it will help drive the country’s food security strategy. SAL is expanding both its Chinese and foreign markets, while it sped up business diversity with pesticides and seeds as dual main drivers. We are confident of SAL’s growth potential and assign a 25x PE for 2025E, along with our RMB30 target price. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating.


風險提示: 農藥銷售的季節性和地域性引致的風險、市場競爭加劇的風險、公司可能存在產品質量風險、存貨損失風險等公司運營相關風險、匯率波動風險、測算主觀性風險。


Risks include: pesticide sales seasonality and regionality risks; intensifying competition; product quality and inventory loss risks; FX volatility; and financial estimates’ subjectivity risks.



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