从本月开始，发布万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数正式版。在正式版指数中，我们根据以往生成的大数据、新的经济形势以及可参照的基准，做了校验与调整，增加了“文化、体育与娱乐业”这一行业。
一、指数概览
2017年5月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）为28.2，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为28.2%。按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降3.6个百分点（图1）。本月NEI下降主要来自新三板和招标数据中新经济的比例变化，但招聘和新注册企业数据仍然保持稳定。尽管如此，我们仍然能在NEI分项指数的长期趋势中观察到新经济投入占比在将近一年以来的下降趋势，这与传统行业的不断复苏有着紧密联系。但同时我们也注意到，传统行业的复苏主要是供给侧催动的，而需求侧的动力不足使得这部分复苏可能会在短期内出现停滞，届时，新经济将重新登场，成为经济止跌的主要力量。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年5月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入和科技投入的下降。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大， 5月继续下降，为29.5。劳动力投入较4月下降较少，从2017年4月的30.1下降为29.9， 为2017年指数以来的最低值。 科技投入指数则从上个月的30.4下降至23.6（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.1，-1.8，和-1.7个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年5月NEI变化的贡献值为-3.6（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年5月为总指数贡献了12.1个百分点。金融和法律服务业贡献了3.7个百分点，排名第二，是最近半年以来排名最高的一次；生物医药产业贡献排名与上月相同排名第三，本月为3.3个百分点；节能与环保业贡献排名滑落至第五，本月贡献2.1个百分点，约为2017年4月的一半。（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2017年5月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平与上月基本持平，为每月9115元，上月为9216元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2017年5月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例有所下降，从29.3%下降为28.9%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重保持不变，仍然为30.9%。这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平有所上升，2017年5月新经济入职工资“溢价”为7.0%，高于上月的5.2%（图6）。近半年来，新经济行业的平均工资溢价分别在1月和3月出现了上升，“溢价”高于10%，其余时间都出现了稳步下降，而本月有所回升。
四、新增公司占比情况
使用新增企业数据，我们对过去18个月以来的各行业新增企业占总新增企业比重进行了监测。使用2017年5月的企业关键词前25名，见图7。我们每6个月监测一次包含各关键词的新增企业占比，即2016年11月、2016年5月和2015年11月各一次。
排名上升的行业包括以下几类——工程，从2015年11月的第四名上升至2017年5月的第一名，占比上升31.2%；装饰，从2015年11月的第十名上升至2017年5月的第七名，占比上升14.2%；建筑，从2015年11月的第14名上升至2017年5月的第10名，占比上升47.6%；房地产，从2015年11月的第24名上升至2017年5月的第21名，占比上升62.4%。这些关键词变化说明基础设施投资和建筑类投资已经开始重新上升，这部分投资大多来自于政府。此外，教育行业的投资也出现了上升，从2015年11月的第22名上升至2017年5月的第17名，占比上升33.9%，这是建筑工程类关键词以外唯一出现上升的具体行业。
排名下降的行业包括以下几类——电子，从2015年11月的第5名下降至2017年5月的第8名，占比下降21.1%；商务，从2015年11月的第8名下降至2017年5月的第12名，占比下降20.3%，物流，从2015年11月的第19名下降至2017年5月的第22名，占比下降2.1%；投资，从2015年11月的第9名下降至2017年5月的第23名，占比下降64%。其中，除了投资行业有来自于工商注册名的限制以外，其他下降较多的行业主要集中在电子商务类，这意味着在互联网+的行业中，电子商务的热度已经开始出现下降。
五、新岗位的变化
本月，我们挖掘企业招聘大数据中的“新岗位”数据。企业A在B城市招聘C岗位这三个要素定义了一个企业的招聘行为。在一个季度之内首次出现的招聘行为被称之为“新岗位”招聘。该指标在2016年11月的报告中首次出现，本月我们重复观测其进程。
“新岗位”招聘和“旧岗位”的招聘在许多方面都存在显著差异。“旧岗位”招聘意味着一个公司在某个城市持续招聘某个职位的人员，这意味着三种可能的情况，第一可能是这部分业务的持续增长，导致该公司会不断在某个城市的某个岗位上增加人员；第二是该职位的劳动力有着较高的离职率，因此需要不断进行补充新加入劳动力；第三是该岗位面临较高的成本压力，因此在给定工资的情况下难以招聘到令人满意的人员，只能进行持续招聘。而“新岗位”的招聘则说明企业、地点和职位三者中必然有一项是新的，或者是新成立的企业，或者是开拓了新市场，或者开拓了新的业务，这与“新经济指数”本身就存在内在联系。
从图8可以看到，在总招聘数据中，“新岗位”数量所占比重从2016年1月开始快速上升，在2016年3月达到顶峰，当月约60%的招聘都是“新岗位”招聘。该比例在2017年4月和5月仍然维持在40%以上，随后开始下降。从2016年7月开始，“新岗位”的比例稳定在35%到40%左右。
在2017年3月，该指标再次回到了42.8%，随后下降。根据两年共有的趋势判断，新岗位占比这一指标与春节息息相关，春节过后，随着业务开展，劳动力市场上会出现一批全新的需求。然而我们同时可以发现，2017年4月和5月的新岗位占比较去年同期有较大幅度下降，这也意味着市场上的新动能正在下降，该指标的变动与新增公司和之前我们监测到的政府投资挤出民间投资的趋势是吻合的。
六、从劳动力数据看投资复苏
在上个月，我们曾经使用劳动力大数据对目前的投资进行分析。本月，我们重复这套预测方案——使用中国每月的房地产开发投资完成额当月值与劳动力数据建筑类就业人员的需求占比进行比较。可以看到，在2017年4月之前，两者大数据中的劳动占比和房地产开发投资完成额当月值在走势完全一致。然而，建筑类劳动人员的需求在2017年4月已经达到了6.75%，比2017年3月的5.93%上升了0.82%，然而当月的房地产开发投资完成额却比2017年3月下降了10.6%。这是该指标与统计实际值头一次出现背离。
本月，建筑类劳动人员的需求继续上升，达到了24个月以来最高的7.05%，考虑到该大数据指标在过去大部分时间段的准确性，我们仍然预测下一个月的房地产投资数据会出现上升。
七、城市新经济排名
2017年5月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、广州、北京、重庆、深圳排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2016年10月到2017年5月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州。
更多咨询敬请联络:
万事达卡
公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇
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电邮：[email protected]
财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
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电邮：[email protected]
公关总监 马玲
电话：+86-10-8590-5204
电邮：[email protected]
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：+86-28-65290823
电邮：[email protected]
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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May 2017
MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
The official version of the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index will be released from this month on. We made adjustment to the previously released trial version Based on big data, new economic development, and reference guideline, adding “Culture, Sports, and Entertainment” sector to the original index.
Overview
In May 2017, the MasterCard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 28.2, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 28.2% of overall economic input activities that month, down 3.6 ppts from March (Chart 1). The declining NEI was in large part due to the changes of new economy share in tendering and new OTC market. Recruitment and new enterprises registration data remained stable. Nevertheless, the downtrend of new economy share in past year is noticeable, based on a series of NEI indicators. We attribute the change to recovering traditional industries. However, it's noteworthy that the recovery of traditional industries was stimulated by supply-side structural reform and will be jeopardized by weak demand. Once the old economy stops recovering, new economy will bounce back as the driving force. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. Among the primary inputs, the decrease in the May NEI reading came primarily from decreasing capital and technology inputs. Capital investment showed wide fluctuations in the recent half year; it further declined in April, coming in at 29.5. Labor inputs declined moderately, dropping to 29.9 from 30.1 in April, the lowest number since 2017. Technology inputs declined significantly to 23.6 from 30.4 a month ago (Chart 2).
Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, -1.8 and -1.7 ppts, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weightings, the net NEI change was a 3.6 ppts decrease from April (Chart 3).
Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 12.1 ppts to NEI. Financial & Legal Services came second, contributing 3.7 ppts, the highest ranking since the recent half year. Biotech ranked the same as April as the third largest contributor with 3.3 ppts. Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection dropped to the fifth contributor with 2.1 ppts, about a half of the number in April (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In May 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 9,115 per month, dropping slightly from last month’s level of RMB 9,216 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 28.9% of total hiring in February, a decrease from the previous month’s 29.3%. The compensation share of New Economy sectors remained the same at 30.9%. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 7.0% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, an increase from 5.2% in April (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy saw an increase in January and March, respectively, with more than 10%, and experienced a solid decline in the other months, while the figure saw an increase again this month.
Decomposition of New Established Enterprises
We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sectors. Top 25 key words associated with enterprises were used (Chart 7). We decompose new enterprises by sub-sector every six months, in November 2016, May 2016 and November 2015, respectively. Sub-sectors are ranked by the proportion of new enterprises in the sub-sector to all new enterprises.
Ranking up sub-sectors (from November 2015 to May 2017) include the following: Engineering (No.1 in May 2017, No.4 in November 2015, 31.2% increases in proportion), Decoration (No.7 in May 2017, No.10 in November 2015, 14.2% increases in proportion), Construction (No.10 in May 2017, No.14 in November 2015, 47.6% increases in proportion), Real Estate (No.21 in May 2017, No.24 in November 2015, 62.4% increases in proportion). Changes in key words above indicated that infrastructure and construction investment, both led by government, started to rise again. Moreover, education investment also saw a ranking-up to No.17 in May 2017 from No.22 in November 2015 with a proportion increase of 33.9 ppts, which is the only ranking up sub-sector other than Construction & Engineering.
Ranking down sub-sectors (from November 2015 to May 2017) include the following: Electronics (No.8 in May 2017, No.5 in November 2015, 21.1% decreases in proportion), Business (No.12 in May 2017, No.8 in November 2015, 20.3% decreases in proportion), Logistics (No.22 in May 2017, No.19 in November 2015, 2.2% decreases in proportion), Investment (No.23 in May 2017, No.9 in November 2015, 64.0% decreases in proportion). Apart from investment, which is subject to business registration restriction, the other ranking down sub-sectors are in large part associated with e-commerce, which might start cooling off.
Changes in New Job Openings
In May we explored new job openings based on recruitment data. Recruitment involves three elements: enterprise, location/city, and opening. An opening is defined as a “New Job Opening” when it’s first posted in a span of three months. This indicator was used in our report in November 2016.
New job openings are of significant difference from “old” job opening in many aspects. Existence of old job opening indicates that the opening has been posted before in the same city. Three potential scenarios arise here: 1) the continuous growth in related business requires an increase in personnel; 2) the high turnover rate of employees requires new labor input; 3) previous offers are not good enough to attract qualified candidates. A new job opening implies that one of three elements (enterprise, location/city, and opening) is new, at least. In this sense, new job openings are closely related to New Economy Index.
Chart 8 shows that the ratio of new job openings to total job openings rose rapidly from January 2016 and climaxed in March 2016, when approximately 60% of the job openings were new. The ratio stayed above 40% in April and May 2016 and dropped afterwards. From July 2016 on, the ratio stabilized around 35% to 40%.
The ratio climbed to 42.8% in March 2017, and dropped again afterwards. We might conclude that the pattern of ratio in spring is related to Chinese New Year. Generally, labor market demands peaks after Spring Festival. However, the ratio experienced a significant YoY decrease in April and May 2017, implied that new momentum is slowing down. In history, the change of new job opening ratio coincides with our observations on government squeeze effects.
Recovery in Investment Based on Employment Data
We use monthly completed investment in real estate development and demand for construction employees to analyze the current state of investment. In the following chart, the two indexes showed an identical trend before April 2017. Demand for construction employees reached 6.75% in April 2017, an increase by 0.82% from 5.93% in March 2017, while April completed investment in real estate development dropped by 10.6% as compared with March 2017. This was the first time the two indexes diverged.
This month continues seeing an increase in demand for construction employees, reaching a 24-month peak at 7.05% (Chart 9). Given the historical accuracy of the index, we still forecast that real estate investment increases next month.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Chongqing, and Shenzhen. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between November 2016 and May 2017. The top five cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.
For further information please contact:
MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：[email protected]
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：[email protected]
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：[email protected]
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：[email protected]
The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.
About MasterCard
MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
