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禾賽科技: 23Q4業績點評: 23Q4收入、綜合毛利率超指引, 24年交付量上調至60萬顆

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-03-22 18:04

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Hesai Group

(HSAI US)


23Q4業績點評: 23Q4收入、綜合毛利率超指引, 24年交付量上調至60萬顆


23Q4 revenue and consolidated gross margin surpass guidance; Hesai expects to deliver 600,000 units in 2024E

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

23Q4業績概覽: 23Q4收入、綜合毛利率均超此前指引,23全年經營現金流爲正。23Q4收入爲5.6億元,yoy+37.1%;毛利率爲41.2%,yoy+11.2pcts,超此前的指引水平;23全年經營現金流爲正,爲同行業中唯一實現該目標的公司;截至23Q4,公司現金儲備達31億,爲產品迭代與技術創新提供有力保障。


2023 review: Q4 revenue up 37% yoy and full-year deliveries increased 176%

Highlights: Hesai’s unaudited 2023 results report shows that Q4 revenue and consolidated gross margin outperformed guidance. And it had positive operating cash flow through the full year, the only company in the industry to have done so.


Financials: 23Q4 revenue shot up 37.1% yoy to RMB560m, while gross margin expanded 11.2ppt yoy to 41.2%, surpassing guidance. It had positive operating cash flow for 2023 and cash reserves counted RMB3.1bn as of 23Q4, providing comfort for future product iteration and technological innovations.


交付量情況: 單季度看,23Q4激光雷達總交付量爲87736顆,yoy+84.6%。其中,ADAS激光雷達交付量爲80428顆,yoy+85.5%;自動駕駛激光雷達交付量爲7308顆,yoy+75.5 %。全年來看,激光雷達總交付量爲222116顆,yoy+176.1%;其中,ADAS激光雷達交付量爲194910顆,yoy+214.8%;自動駕駛激光雷達交付量爲27206顆,yoy+46.7%。


Deliveries:

•23Q4: total lidar delivery volume came to 87,736 units (up 84.6% yoy), comprising 80,428 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) lidar devices (up 85.5% yoy) and 7,308 lidar autonomous driving systems (up 75.5% yoy).

•2023: total lidar delivery volume amounted to 222,116 units (up 176.1%), comprising 194,910 ADAS lidar units (rising 214.8%) and 27,206 autonomous driving lidar solutions (increasing 46.7%).


業務進展: 海內外定點/合作穩步推進。 海外業務: 被兩家全球OEM選中爲其新電動車型提供 ADAS激光雷達。北美、歐洲和中國以外亞洲的9 家全球OEM進行 13 項 RFI/RFQ。國內業務:與全球最大EV製造商之一合作,將於24年推出一系列新車型;成爲理想MEGA MPV平臺的獨家激光雷達供應商,理想L7 Pro、L8 Pro 車型將標配公司ADAS產品;與長城和零跑戰略合作,多款車型計劃於24年SOP。


Steady progress in designated supplier business and other collaborations

Export markets:

•Two global OEMs have chosen Hesai to supply ADAS lidar devices in their new electric vehicle (EV) models.

•Nine international OEMs based in North America, Europe and Asia ex-China sent 13 request-for-information and request-for-quotation proposals.


Chinese market:

•New partner: Hesai has partnered with one of the world’s largest EV manufacturers to launch a series of new models in 2024E.

•Li Auto: it recently became exclusive lidar supplier to Li Auto’s Mega MPV series and Hesai’s ADAS will be standard equipment in the L7 and L8 Pro models.

•Great Wall Motor and Leapmotor: strategic partnerships with the Chinese automakers involve multiple models with plans to roll out start-of-production (SOP) versions in 2024E.


產品進展: 24年1月公司推出旗艦級激光雷達AT512,計劃於2025年進行大規模生產。AT512在各項關鍵指標上具有行業領先的性能,在10%反射率下的探測範圍超過300米,每秒有1230萬的點頻刷新。


Products: Hesai unveiled AT512, the next generation of its flagship lidar device, which is slated for mass production by 2025E. The cutting-edge AT512 offers key specifications like a detection range of above 300m under 10% reflectivity and a point rate of 12.3m/sec.


產能進展: 上海Maxwell中心正式落成,專注於新產品研發和測試。截至23年底,公司已實現超過80萬臺的年化生產率。


Manufacturing capacity: Hesai inaugurated its Shanghai Maxwell Center to focus on new product development and testing. The company’s current annualized production rate stands at more than 800,000 units as of end-2023.


後續展望: 公司預計受AM業務增速放緩及春節需求暫時性下降等影響,24Q1收入將有所下降,爲3.2億~3.5億元。24Q2將新增13個SOP車型,預計將促進Q2激光雷達出貨量環比增長約3倍。24年起,公司收入構成將轉變爲ADAS爲主導。全年來看,ADAS收入佔比將達60%,交付量預計達60萬臺,收入預計爲4-4.5億美元,yoy+50-70%。公司預計25年底前將累計交付超過200萬顆的激光雷達。


Outlook: Hesai enforces ADAS lidar leadership with growing partnerships

24Q1E: attributing a slowdown in autonomous mobility (AM) growth and a brief demand decline during the Chinese New Year, Hesai expects a decline in 24Q1E revenue to RMB320m-350m.


24Q2E: the company’s OEM customers plan to release 13 new SOP models in 24Q2E, which could push up Q2E lidar shipments by about 3x qoq.


2024-25E: starting in 2024E, Hesai has tweaked its revenue structure to be ADAS-dominant. Hence, it expects ADAS will account for 60% of revenue in 2024E, with delivery volume rising to 600,000 units and generating revenue of USD400m-450m, which implies a 50-70% growth spike. Next year, Hesai expects to deliver over 2m lidars by the end of 2025E.


禾賽已確立多項合作和量產定點,國內包括理想、零跑、長城等,海外獲得兩頂級OEM定點,目前累計獲得16家OEM和Tier 1的定點合作,合作車型超過60種,我們認爲這證明了其ADAS產品的技術領先性和市場認可度。看好禾賽在國內外市場持續獲得定點項目,有望進一步鞏固其在ADAS激光雷達的領先地位。


Major collabs affirm ADAS positioning: Hesai’s ADAS market leadership has gained further traction with designated supplier partnerships and mass production collaborations, including with Li Auto, Leapmotor and Great Wall in the Chinese market, as well as designated supplier to two top global OEMs. Hesai also obtained design business with 16 OEM and Tier 1 clients covering more than 60 models. These collabs collectively demonstrate market recognition of its ADAS products and attest to Hesai’s tech prowess. We expect Hesai will continue to obtain designated supplier projects in the Chinese and foreign markets, which would entrench its ADAS lidar market leadership.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 禾賽有望顯著受益於自動駕駛行業發展下L2+/L3滲透率提升,目前激光雷達進一步滲透至15萬元左右的車型。看好禾賽領先的技術/工程能力和已驗證的大規模交付能力,以及更多OEM合作及相關車型發佈。同時看好目前禾賽客戶理想的頭部效應和持續銷量增長帶來的出貨量快速增長,建議關注。


Valuation and risks

In light of autonomous driving advancements, we expect Hesai will leverage increasing L2+ and L3 market penetration. Lidar has currently penetrated car models priced at about RMB150,000. We are bullish about its leading tech and engineering prowess, on top of its evident large-scale delivery capability. We also have an eye on its future OEM collaboration and model releases. The partnership with Li Auto augments Hesai’s market leadership, along with its fast shipment growth and stable sales growth. We forecast revenue at RMB2.97/4.15bn in 2024/25E, a yoy increase of 58%/40%. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示: 行業競爭加劇;L2+/L3滲透率不及預期;公司經營風險


Risks: intensifying competition; weaker-than-expected L2+ and L3 penetration; and operating risks.


Email: [email protected]

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