By JUSTIN WORLAND
Climate Change Has Already Increased Global Inequality. It Will Only Get Worse
Scientists have long predicted that warmer temperatures caused by climate change will have the biggest impact on the world’s poorest, most vulnerable people. New research now indicates that’s already happened over the last several decades.
长期以来，科学家们一直在预测，世界上最贫穷、最脆弱的人群受全球变暖的影响最大。新的研究表明，这在过去几十年里已经成为现实。
A study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science found that in most poor countries, higher temperatures are more than 90% likely to have resulted in decreased economic output, compared to a world without global warming. Meanwhile, the effect has been less dramatic in wealthier nations—with some even potentially benefiting from higher temperatures.
周一发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》上的一项研究表明，与全球变暖之前相比，大多数贫穷国家因气温上升而导致经济产出下降的可能性超过90%。与此同时，较富裕的国家受气温升高到的影响就没有那么明显，一些国家甚至可能从中获益。
“We’re not arguing that global warming created inequality,” says Noah S. Diffenbaugh, the author of the study and a professor at Stanford University who studies climate change. But “global warming has put a drag on improvement.” The countries most likely to have lost out economically as a result of warmer temperatures have done the least to contribute to the problem, he adds.
“我们并不是要说全球变暖造成了不平等，” 该研究报告的作者、斯坦福大学研究气候变化的教授Noah S. Diffenbaugh说。但“全球变暖的确拖累了经济发展。”他补充道，“那些在经济上损失最大的国家，可能对全球变暖的‘贡献’最小。”
The new study builds on past research. A 2015 study in the journal Nature projected that the average income in the poorest countries will decline 75% by 2100 compared to a world without warming, while some of the richest countries could experience gains in income. And a landmark report released last fall from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN’s climate science body, showed that if global temperatures rise more than 1.5°C by the end of the century, poor countries will likely face critical challenges, including the destruction of entire communities and millions of premature deaths.
这项新研究建立在以往调查的基础上。《自然》杂志在2015年就发表过一项研究，预测到2100年，最贫穷的国家与如若没有全球变暖相比，平均收入会少了75%，而一些最富裕的国家可能会在变暖过程中获得更高的收入；去年秋天，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 发布了具有里程碑意义的一篇报告，显示如果到本世纪末全球气温上升超过1.5°C，贫穷国家可能会面临严重的挑战，包括整个社群的破坏和数以百万计人的过早死亡。
“They will suffer the most, they will suffer disproportionately, as they are already,” said Mary Robinson, a former U.N. Special Envoy on Climate Change and a previous president of Ireland, told TIME after the launch of the IPCC report.
前联合国气候变化特使、爱尔兰前总统玛丽·罗宾逊在IPCC报告发布后向《时代》表示:“他们遭受的打击会是最严重的，与他们的所作所为完全不成比例，而这已经发生了。”
Even before any of that research was published, climate policymakers have tried to address the problem of the poorest countries facing the worst effects of rising temperatures—for which they are least responsible. Early attempts at addressing global warming on the international stage included different expectations for emissions reduction based on each country’s level of development. Poorest countries received more leeway while the richest bore extra responsibility.
虽然在上述研究发表之前，气候政策制定者已经在努力解决在全球变暖问题上责任最小的贫穷国家受影响最大这一问题。在国际舞台上解决全球变暖问题的早期尝试包括根据各国发展水平对减排制定不同预期。贫穷的国家获得了更多回旋的余地，而富有的国家需要承担额外的责任。
But in some ways, that approach backfired in the U.S., and by extension the rest of the world, as it helped feed the popular conservative narrative that Washington is overpaying for climate change mitigation, while poorer countries are getting away with doing less. That Republican talking point has had real effects. Hardline distinctions between requirements for rich and poor countries have been softened in recent years, in favor of a lighter version of what climate change policymakers refer to as “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
That principle, embedded in climate agreements dating back to 1992, including the landmark Paris Agreement, suggests that richer countries should bear a greater burden in addressing climate change, but remains vague about what that means for concrete policy.
但在某种程度上这种做法适得其反，美国声称自己为减缓气候变化付出了过高的代价，较贫穷的国家却付出甚少，而其他国家也逐渐发出了这种保守派论调。共和党的这一观点已经产生了切实的影响。近年来，在减排方面强硬区分富国穷国的要求有所放松，各国开始更倾向于气候变化政策制定者口中“共同但有区别的责任”这一轻描淡写的说法。这样的原则从1992年《联合国气候变化框架公约》开始就有所体现，延续至今天具有里程碑意义的《巴黎协定》。该原则表明，发达国家应该在应对气候变化方面承担更大的责任，但具体政策意味着什么，该原则仍然含糊其词。
Many of the world’s developing countries have called foul. “This problem is created somewhere else,” Abdur Rouf Talukder, Bangladesh’s Finance Secretary, told TIME earlier this month. “We are spending more on adaptation because we have to live.”
世界上许多发展中国家都对此表示不满。“气候变化的主要原因不在我们这里，”孟加拉国财政部长Abdur Rouf Talukder本月早些时候告诉《时代》，“而我们却要为改善环境投入更多，因为这关系到我们的生存。”
Bangladesh’s GDP per capita was 12% lower due to global warming than it would have been otherwise in the two decades preceding 2010, according to the study published Monday. The effect is more dramatic elsewhere, particularly in sub-Saharan African countries including Sudan, Burkina Faso and Niger, where climate change has driven GDP per capita more than 20% lower that it would have been absent climate change.
周一发表的研究报告显示，由于全球变暖，孟加拉国的人均GDP比2010年之前的20年低了12%。这种影响在其他地方更为显著，尤其是在撒哈拉以南的非洲国家，包括苏丹、布基纳法索和尼日尔。这些国家的人均GDP因受气候变化的影响而比正常情况低了20%以上。
Higher temperatures affect economic output in a variety of ways. For example, labor productivity decreases with extreme heat, crops produce lower yields and cognitive functioning declines. “There are a number of pathways by which temperature affects building blocks of economic activity,” says Diffenbaugh. What’s clear is that, for poor countries, the news is all bad.
气温升高会以多种方式影响经济产出。例如，极端高温会降低劳动生产率，降低农作物产量，人们的认知功能也会下降。迪芬鲍格说:“气温会从方方面面影响经济活动的基础。很明显对于贫困国家来说，所有的消息都是负面的。”
