【经济学人】VR已死？没错，库克也这么认为

VR已死？没错，库克也这么认为

译者：黄倩霞

校对：倪凌晖

策划：倪凌晖

Unimpressed, consumers embrace the relevance of augmented reality instead

VR缺乏吸引力，用户转向AR

本文选自 The Economist | 取经号原创翻译

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LIKE the rest of the consumer-electronics industry, video-game makers would be lost without the traditional binge buying that happens between mid-November and the late December. This year’s gift-giving season will be as much a treat for makers of video-gaming gadgets as for their happy recipients. Prices of the headsets, sensors and controllers that let game-players explore the artificial world of virtual reality (VR) have been slashed to levels most families can now afford. Stockings could be bulging with VR headsets from Samsung, Dell, Sony, HTC, Oculus (a division of Facebook) and others. For those willing to wait until early 2018, costs could fall still further—as a new, even cheaper generation of VR headsets hits the market.

电子游戏开发商和其它消费电子产品公司一样，如果没有每年十一月中旬和十二月末的圣诞购物狂潮，这些公司的业绩可能会十分惨淡。今年的送礼促销季，对收到礼物的人来说是一件好事，对电子游戏设备生产商更是如此。现在对大部分家庭来说，VR头戴设备、VR感应器和VR手柄的价格已经低到可以负担得起了，有了这些他们便可在VR创造出的虚拟世界中尽情探索。圣诞节的长筒袜可以塞满三星、戴尔、htc、Oculus（Facebook旗下现实头戴设备制造商）及其它品牌相继推出VR头戴设备。如果有耐心等到2018年初，新一代更低价的VR头戴设备会进入市场，人们可以买到更便宜的设备。

Despite the merry ho, ho, ho, however, there is a distinct whiff of urgency in the air. Virtual reality has failed to live up to its hype, and mainstream consumers never really bought into the technology. Even ardent gaming fans have been slow to embrace VR. No-one can blame them. The content has been underwhelming , and the gear needed to do the job properly has been too cumbersome and expensive. Apart from a head-mounted display, with its high-resolution OLED (organic light-emitting diode) screen, other necessary bits include a pair of handheld controllers (for signaling the user’s intentions) along with a couple of wall-mounted sensors (for tracking the user’s movement).

尽管圣诞节购物狂欢带来了销售热潮，但是VR的形势明显不容乐观。VR的实际功能并没有宣传片中那么强大。主流消费者从未真正被这项技术吸引。游戏狂热粉对VR也持观望态度。这无可厚非。首先，VR的内容并 不那么惊艳 。其次，VR设备也过于笨重昂贵了。除了头戴设备，VR装备还包括高清OLED屏，一对手柄（使用者通过手柄操控）以及几个安装在墙面上的感应器（追踪使用者的运动轨迹）。

underwhelming [,ʌndə’hwelmɪŋ] not very impressive or exciting 未能给人留下深刻印象的

Then there is the powerful gaming computer needed for generating the virtual 3D space. The latest versions of Microsoft Xbox or Sony PlayStation will suffice , and will certainly save a bundle if the user already owns such a video-game console. Otherwise, a PC fitted with a high-end graphics card capable of refreshing the screen at a minimum of 90 hertz (cycles per second) rather than the usual 60Hz is essential if the user is to avoid motion sickness and nausea. Adding that can double the cost of getting into VR.

此外，还需要一台性能强大的游戏主机来生成虚拟3D场景。最新版的微软Xbox和索尼PS游戏机 就是不错的选择 。当然，如果用户已经拥有一台类似的游戏主机，那就能省下一大笔钱。如果还想减少用电脑运行VR时的眩晕和恶心感，就需要一台配置了高端显卡，能够以最少90赫兹的频率刷新屏幕的电脑。普通电脑只能做到60赫兹。要配备这样一台高性能电脑，成本就翻翻了。

suffice [sə’faɪs] let …… be enough to achieve a purpose or to fulfill a need  使满足、能够

The good news is that the Oculus Rift—regarded by many gamers as the best of the VR headsets—can now be had for as little as $400, including two handheld controllers and a pair of desktop tracking sensors. When launched in 2016, the headset alone cost $600 and the controllers $200 apiece. To stay competitive, Oculus VR’s main rivals have also cut prices. A comparable bundle for the HTC Vive now costs just under $600, down from $800 several months ago. Meanwhile, Sony’s PlayStation VR has fallen from $500 to $400.

好消息是Oculus Rift——被很多游戏玩家认为是最好的VR头戴设备——目前售价低至400美元，包含一对手柄和一对桌面感应器。2016年刚推出时，单单一台VR头戴设备的售价就高达600美金，而单个手柄的价格也高达200美元。为保持市场竞争力，Oculus VR的主要竞争对手也相继降价。HTC Vive售价从几个月前的800美元下降至600美元。同时，索尼PS VR从500美元下降至400美元。

That is just a start. The latest version of Microsoft’s Windows 10 software (Fall Creator’s Update) includes tools that let headset makers use the company’s “mixed reality” platform. Microsoft has teamed up with device-makers such as Acer, Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo and Samsung to produce headsets based on its software. By not having to develop the operating software themselves, or license it from elsewhere, Microsoft’s partners are able to sell VR headsets for $300 to $400.

这只是个开始。在最新的Windows10秋季创意者更新中，微软为VR头戴设备制造商提供了“混合现实”平台的相关工具。微软同宏碁、华硕、戴尔、惠普、联想、三星等制造商达成合作，基于微软的软件开发VR头戴设备。这样一来，生产商就省去了开发操作软件或从别处购买的成本，VR头戴设备的售价就可以低至300～400美元。

Not to be outdone, Oculus VR recently unveiled a standalone headset called the Oculus Go, which is expected to sell for $200 when launched next year. Facebook’s boss, Mark Zuckerberg, believes (optimistically) that Oculus Go could garner a billion users over the next year or so. Meanwhile, HTC has announced a similar standalone VR headset, called Vive Focus, for the Chinese market. As yet, no mention has been made as to whether it will be sold elsewhere.

为了不被超越，Oculus VR近期推出了一款名为Oculus Go的 一体式 VR头戴设备，预计明年上市，售价在200美元。脸书总裁马克.扎克伯格乐观地相信Oculus Go将在一两年的时间里拥有十亿用户。同时，HTC也发布了一款类似的一体式VR头戴设备Vive Focus，主要针对中国市场。目前，该产品是否会在其他地区销售还犹未可知。

standalone [‘stændə,ləʊn] one machine 一体式

Entry-level offerings like the Oculus Go and Vive Focus are not to be confused with bargain-basemen t headsets such as Samsung’s Galaxy Gear VR or Google’s Cardboard and Daydream—which require a smartphone to be inserted in an otherwise empty strap-on box, to serve as screen and processor. These do-it-yourself kits can be had for anything from $15 for a cardboard cutout to $90 or so for a more substantial model. Be warned, though: their limited resolution and freedom of movement provide little more than a taste of what VR has to offer.

Oculus Go和Vive Focus作为入门级产品，和三星Galaxy Gear、谷歌Cardboard and Daydream此类 廉价 产品不同，后者需要接入手机充当屏幕和处理器。如果不与手机连接，这些廉价产品就是一个个捆绑式的空盒子。这些用户DIY的设备可以是15美金就可以买到的看板也可以是价值90美金左右更耐用的模型。但有一点需要注意的是：这些配件的 清晰度 有限，移动不便，只能让使用者体验到VR技术的一小部分。

bargain-basement cheap and not of very good quality 廉价劣质的

resolution [‚rezə'luːʃ ə n]  The resolution of an image is how clear the image is. 分辨率

Headsets like the Oculus Go and Vive Focus rely on technologies developed originally for smartphones. These include system-on-a-chip processors, and also miniature gyroscopes and motion sensors. Unlike the do-it-yourself models, the components in these new standalone VR models are fully integrated into the headset. Even so, compromises have had to be made to keep them light enough for people to wear on their heads. And, while Qualcomm’s Snapdragon series of smartphone processors are impressive, they are no match, when it comes to producing fluid graphics with realistic lighting and shadows within the VR space, for the Intel or AMD powerhouses used in gaming computers .

Oculus Go和Vive FocusVR依赖的技术原本是为智能手机开发的。包括系统芯片处理器、微型陀螺仪和移动传感器。与这些用户DIY的模型不同，新款VR头戴设备将所有组件都融为一体。当然，为了减轻眼镜佩戴时的重量，开发商会对设备做出些许调整。虽然高通骁龙系列手机处理器功能强大，但要用在Intel或AMD的游戏主机处理器中，在虚拟空间用逼真的光影制造动态图片，高通骁龙的性能还不够强大。

Other cost-cutting measures hobble performance further. The forthcoming Oculus Go, for instance, relies on an inexpensive LCD panel instead of a pricier OLED display. The latter updates the image much faster, reducing the blur caused by the user’s movements. To cut costs still more, the Oculus Go will be shipped without the external sensors needed to track the user’s movements within the room—though the standalone device can at least track head movements, thanks to its internal accelerometers. It also comes with a fairly simple controller, rather than a pair of the powerful handheld “Touch” devices found in the Oculus Rift package.

其它降低成本的措施也都使得VR设备的运行效果下降。比如，即将推出的Oculus Go就装备了成本较低的LCD面板，而不是价格高昂的OLED面板。但OLED面板刷新画面更快，能够减少用户移动造成的视线模糊。为了进一步降低成本，Oculus Go将放弃用于追踪室内运动轨迹的外设传感器，而是在其内部安装了加速计，追踪头部的运动轨迹。另外，Oculus Go的手柄也做了一定的简化，不再是Oculus Rift配备的功能强大的Oculus Touch手柄。

For the time being, people wanting to experience virtual reality at its most immersive will have to cough up and continue to stumble over a cumbersome cable that ties them to a PC powerful enough to do all the visual computation, while minimizing the effects of “latency”—ie, the lag between the user doing something and seeing the action occur in the virtual scene. Untethered headsets that offer a richly immersive experience are still a way off. Over the past year, Oculus has provided glimpses of its project Santa Cruz, a mobile VR headset that needs neither external sensors nor a tethered PC. All the company will say about when it might appear is that early units will be shipped to game developers sometime next year.

目前，用户想要最大程度上体验VR带来的沉浸感，仍然需要依靠繁重的电缆接入一台性能强大的电脑，通过它来做视觉计算，最大程度上减少“运算延迟”的影响，也就是用户行动和虚拟影像呈现之间出现的延迟。要开发能为用户带来完全沉浸式体验的无线VR头戴设备仍前路漫漫。去年，Oculus向公众稍稍透露了它的Santa Cruz项目。Santa Cruz是一台既不需要外置传感器也不需要外接电脑的可移动VR头戴设备。就所有公司目前所知，明年初期设备就能向游戏开发者 发布 了。

ship [ʃɪp] to make sth. available to be bought  上市

Where is Apple in all this? Practically every other smartphone maker has plunged into virtual reality, but Apple has remained aloof. Tim Cook, the company’s chief executive, says the display technology is still not good enough to provide a satisfactory VR experience. He also believes that virtual reality (even more than a mobile phone) is too isolating and anti-social. Mr Cook’s preference is for augmented reality (AR), a technology for overlaying digital information on objects in the real-world seen via a smartphone camera or headset. Augmented reality amplifies human performance instead of isolating people, he says. Investing in AR also makes more business sense. Unlike VR, which is essentially a game-playing technology, AR has many potential uses. It is expected to make big impacts in industry, education, training, heath care and travel, as well as sports and entertainment.

在这场VR竞争中，苹果公司在哪呢？几乎所有手机公司都投身到VR的研发上，唯独苹果公司无动于衷。苹果公司总裁蒂姆·库克称，目前的显示技术还不够成熟，不能为用户带来愉快的VR体验。他认为VR把人孤立起来了，缺乏在社交场合中的互动。（VR带来的孤立感甚至比手机更严重 ）。他更偏向于AR（增强现实）。AR对现实世界物品进行数字编码，再通过摄像头或头戴设备呈现到虚拟空间。库克说，AR更注重人的参与，而不是将人隔离起来。投资AR更有商业前景。VR是一项针对游戏的技术，AR则不同，有更大的潜在价值。AR将会对工业、教育、培训、医疗、旅游、运动、娱乐等方面产生巨大的影响。

Though famously tight-lipped about its product-development process, Apple is believed to have “several hundred engineers” laying the foundations for an AR ecosystem. For instance, the latest version of the company’s mobile operating system (iOS 11) includes a set of tools known as ARKit for building augmented reality applications for the iPhone and iPad. Some 1,000 or so AR applications can now be downloaded from the company’s App Store.

虽然苹果向来对产品开发进度 守口如瓶 ，但据说有数百名工程师正在为打造AR生态系统做前期准备。比如，苹果公司最新版的移动操作系统（iOS11）就添加了名为ARkit的工具链，能够支持iphone和ipad中AR软件。目前，Apple Store已有大约1000个AR应用可供用户下载使用。

tight-lipped [‚taɪt ‘lɪpt◂]  unwilling to talk about something 守口如瓶的

Over the past few years, Apple has also bought a string of startups working on AR. One of its latest is Vrvana, a Canadian headset maker it bought for $30m. Apple is expected to launch an AR headset (or spectacles) within a year or two. Rivals should worry. Apple has been late to market before, only to lay waste to the competition by delivering an exquisitely refined device.

过去几年中，苹果收购了一系列开发AR技术的创业公司。最近苹果以三千万美金的价格收购了加拿大头戴设备制造商Vrvana。预计一两年内，苹果会发布一款头戴式AR头戴设备（或眼镜）。竞争对手应该为此感到担忧。苹果虽然进入市场较晚，但它将以一款精致、完善的设备 打破 原来的市场竞争格局。

lay waste to devastate or ravage 摧毁

Microsoft is clearly thinking along similar lines. Not for nothing is the toolkit released with the latest Windows 10 update referred to as its mixed-reality platform. The headsets currently being launched by Microsoft’s partners come bundled with motion controllers and work only with VR content. But the mixed-reality platform can work equally well with AR devices, including Microsoft’s own HoloLens—or, indeed, with gear capable of merging both augmented and virtual realities.

微软也有同样的想法。微软最近发布了Windows10秋季创意者创新，并且同时发布了微软“混合现实”平台工具箱——这是有原因的。目前，微软合作伙伴研发的头戴设备都配有手柄且只能和VR兼容。但混合现实平台还能同AR设备兼容，包括微软自己的HoloLens。该平台甚至还可以与AR、VR融合装置兼容。