金融时报：中国如何应对贸易战？|外刊精读

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外刊原文

Beijing keeps soyabean measures in reserve

Beijing’s decision not to retaliate against US soyabean imports following President Donald Trump’s most recent trade measures has kept in reserve a measure that would be sure to hurt American farmers and Chinese consumers alike.

Beijing’s counter-tariffs announced on Friday included sectors from nuts to pork and steel pipe that were carefully calibrated towards sectors that are unlikely to hurt domestic consumers. Indeed many of the sectors, such as pork, are already oversupplied in China.

Retaliating against soyabean shipments would have a big impact on US farmers, many of whom hail from states that voted for Mr Trump. China is one of the biggest markets for US soyabeans, with the country importing $14bn-worth of the foodstuff last year. More than a third of the soyabeans consumed in China are imported from the US.

“Soy is the last resort. You don’t start with your biggest bullet,” said Ma Wenfang, an analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants. “If a true trade war were to erupt, they would roll out soy. That would really hurt the US.”

Beijing is mindful that the imposition of tariffs or import disruptions on soyabeans would raise the cost of cooking oil and other household basics in China. Liu Yonghao, head of New Hope Group, China’s largest soyabean importer, said any long-term action against soyabean imports would feed through to higher inflation in China. “A higher price for ingredients impacts the feed price and ultimately impacts all the people” in China, he said.

Beijing’s ability to play a waiting game is helped by the seasons. At this time of the year, China mostly imports the South American soyabean harvest, giving Beijing a six-month window in which it does not rely on shipments from the US. This could present the opportunity to wring the maximum symbolic value from retaliation on US soyabean shipments.

Ultimately, however, it will have to buy again. “The reality is there would be a lot of posturing, a lot of toys thrown out of prams,” Gary McGuigan, president of global trade at Archer Daniels Midland, the US grains trader, said before the US tariffs were announced. “But the beans will still come out of the US at some point.”

China has the option of raising its imports from Brazil, which has had a bumper harvest this year, although a drought in Argentina has reduced some of its normal supply. Mr McGuigan said: “They [China] will not be able to buy all the beans they need. They will still have to go to the US.”

This is where China’s second advantage could come in.

Beijing’s botched grains stockpiling strategy has left it holding more than half of the world’s grain reserves, purchased at above-market prices. Domestic feed companies prefer to buy freshly harvested imports but higher tariffs on US grain could force these companies to use existing stocks, giving China a little more time in a tariff face-off.

It could also mean that Beijing can frame any intervention in grains imports as a response to a trade provocation, when in reality it would also be an attempt to keep excess supply out of its own market.

The risk for Mr Trump is that his trade measures provoke retaliation that ends up hurting farmers in states that overwhelmingly backed him in the 2016 presidential election.

Ironically for the US, it was China’s previous policy of buying excess grains for its state reserves that pushed prices up. That spurred US farmers to expand production, and has left them more vulnerable to any fall in demand in their most important market.

精讲笔记

Beijing keeps soyabean measures in reserve

Beijing’s decision not to retaliate against US soyabean imports following President Donald Trump’s most recent trade measures has kept in reserve a measure that would be sure to hurt American farmers and Chinese consumers alike.

• keep sth in reserve 留出 … 以备用 ◇We always keep some money in reserve , just in case. 我们总是存起一些钱以防万一。

• 我们在往期文章中讲过， Beijing 在这里指的是不是 “ 北京 ” 这个城市，而是 “ 中国政府 ” ，运用了新闻英语常见的修辞手法 Metonymy ( 借喻 / 借代 )。 报刊中经常使用这一修辞手法，常用各国首都指代所在国及其政府（如 Beijing-> 中国，中国政府）、 重要机构的总部所在地喻指该机构（ Downing Street 唐宁街 -> 英国首相或首府；英国政府或内阁）、用战争地指代战争（ the Gulf-> 海湾战争）。

• retaliate (against sb / sth)|  (by doing sth / with sth) to do sth harmful to sb because they have harmed you first 报复；反击；复仇 = take revenge ◇to retaliate against an attack 对攻击进行还击 ◇The boy hit his sister, who retaliated by kicking him. 男孩打了他妹妹，妹妹则回敬了他一脚。

• most recent 最近的 ◇Irving’s most recent book 欧文最新的书

• be sure to do sth certain to do sth or to happen 一定，必定，无疑（会做或会发生） ◇The exhibition is sure to be popular. 这一展览肯定受欢迎。 ◇It's sure to rain. 一准会下雨。

• alike adv. used after you have referred to two people or groups, to mean 'both' or 'equally' 两者都；同样地

• [ 经济学人 . Quantum leaps] As our Technology Quarterly in this issue explains, big tech firms and startups alike are developing software to exploit these devices’ curious abilities. 正如本期《科技季刊》所释，大型科技公司和创业公司都在开发软件，探索这些设备不同寻常的能力。

• 写作中可以使用这一单词表示用一类事物的两方，替换 both 和 equally ，比如 ◇ 男人和女人： men and women alike ◇ 老师和学生： teacher and students alike ◇ 雇主和雇员： employers and employees alike ◇ 父母和孩子： teens and parents alike [写作推荐]

• [语法] 宾语后置

这句话很长，大家注意提炼句子的主干结构：

Beijing’s decision (not to retaliate against US soyabean imports / following President Donald Trump’s most recent trade measures) （主语） //has kept （谓语） in reserve a measure( 宾语 ) (that would be sure to hurt American farmers and Chinese consumers alike.)

此句主语的核心词是 Beijing’s decision ，其后是两个比较长的修饰成分：

1. not to retaliate against US soyabean imports 是不定式作 Beijing’s decision 的后置定语，意思是“不对美国输华大豆进行报复”的中国政策。

2. following President Donald Trump’s most recent trade measures 是现在分词作时间状语。

主语部分整体指： “在唐纳德 • 特朗普 总统采取最近的贸易措施之后” 中国政府做出的 “不对美国输华大豆进行报复”的 决定。

谓语和宾语部分是我们在标题中遇到的短语 keep sth in reserve ，但因为这里 keep 后面的宾语 太长 (a measure that would be sure to hurt American farmers and Chinese consumers alike) ，放在中间会给人一种头重脚轻的感觉，所以将其后置，以保持句子的平衡。试比较一般语序的句子和宾语后置后的句子：

… has kept a measure that would be sure to hurt American farmers and Chinese consumers alike in reserve

… has kept in reserve a measure that would be sure to hurt American farmers and Chinese consumers alike.

学过新概念英语 3 的同学可能会记得第一课 A puma at large 中有这么一个句子：

Wherever it went, it left behind it a trail of dead deer and small animals like rabbit.

这里也用到了 宾语后置 的方法来保持句子的平衡，如果还原为一般语序是：

Wherever it went, it left a trail of dead deer and small animals like rabbit behind it.

在唐纳德 • 特朗普 (Donald Trump) 总统采取最近的贸易措施之后，北京方面决定不对美国输华大豆进行报复，使这一措施被留作后备手段；如果中国动用这一手段，那将肯定会伤害美国农民和中国消费者。

Beijing’ s counter-tariffs an nounced on Friday included sectors from nuts to pork and steel pipe that were carefully calibrated towards sectors that are unlikely to hurt domestic consumers. Indeed many of the sectors, such as pork, are already oversupplied in China.

• calibrate [ˈkælɪbreɪt] v. If you calibrate something, you measure it accurately. 精确测量；准确估量 ◇a way of calibrating the shift of opinion within the Labour Party 准确衡量工党内部观点转变的方法 ◇Pesticide levels in food are simply too difficult to calibrate. 食品中杀虫剂的含量很难精确测定。

北京方面在上周五宣布的报复性关税（涵盖的类别包括坚果、猪肉和钢管等）经过仔细斟酌，力求使其不太可能损害国内消费者的利益。的确，猪肉等许多产品在中国已经供过于求。

Retaliating against soyabean shipments would have a big impact on US farmers, many of whom hail from states that voted for Mr Trump. China is one of the biggest markets for US soyabeans, with the country importing $14bn-worth of the foodstuff last year. More than a third of the soyabeans consumed in China are imported from the US.

• have a big/major impact on 对 … 产生巨大影响 ◇Higher mortgage rates have already had a major impact on spending. 较高的抵押借款利率已经对消费产生了巨大的影响。 我们还可以在 impact 前面加上 economic, environmental, political 等形容词，表示某方面的影响，比如 Tourism has a big environmental impact. 旅游事业对环境产生了巨大影响 [写作推荐]

• [注意] influence 是细水长流的，而 impact 比 influence 强烈，而且是一下子的，所以 impact 往往可以译成 “ 冲击 ” 。

• hail from sth Someone who hails from a particular place was born there or lives there. （人）生于，来自 ◇I hail from Brighton. 我来自布赖顿。

• vote for… 投支持票；支持 vote against… 投反对票；反对

• foodstuff [ˈfuːdstʌf] n.[C usually plural, U] food – used especially when talking about the business of producing or selling food 食品〔尤用于谈论食品生产或销售〕 ◇a shortage of basic foodstuffs 基本食品短缺

针对美国输华大豆发起报复，将对美国农民产生重大冲击，这些人有很多居住在投票支持特朗普的几个州。中国是美国大豆的最大市场之一，去年进口了价值 140 亿美元的这种农产品。中国消费的大豆有三分之一以上是从美国进口的。

“Soy is the last resort . You don’t start with your biggest bullet,” said Ma Wenfang, an analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants. “If a true trade war were to erupt, they would roll out soy. That would really hurt the US.”

• last / final resort what you will do if everything else fails 〔其他一切都失败后〕最后的手段 as a last resort ◇ Drug treatment should only be used as a last resort. 药物治疗只能作为最后的办法。 of last resort ◇ a weapon of last resort 最后使出的武器 in the last resort ◇Economic sanctions will be used only in the last resort. 实在没有别的办法时，才会采取经济制裁。

• roll sth ↔ out to make a new product available for people to buy or use 在市场上推出某物 =launch ◇The company expects to roll out the new software in September. 公司希望在九月份推出这款新软件。

“ 大豆是最后的手段。你不会从你最大的一颗子弹开始， ” 北京东方艾格农业咨询公司 (Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants) 的分析师马文峰表示。 “ 如果爆发真正的贸易战，他们会推出针对大豆的措施。那真的会刺痛美国。 ”

Beijing is mindful that the imposition of tariffs or import disruptions on soyabeans would raise the cost of cooking oil and other household basics in China. Liu Yonghao, head of New Hope Group, China’s largest soyabean importer, said any long-term action against soyabean imports would feed through to higher inflation in China. “A higher price for ingredients impacts the feed price and ultimately impacts all the people” in China, he said.

• head of sth the person in charge of a group of people or an organization … 的领导人； … 的负责人 ◇She resigned as head of department. 她辞去了部门主管的职务。

• mindful [ˈmaɪnd.f ə l] adj. ~ of sb / sth | ~ that... (formal) remembering sb / sth and considering them or it when you do sth 记着；想着；考虑到 =conscious ◇mindful of our responsibilities 意识到我们的责任 ◇Mindful of the danger of tropical storms, I decided not to go out. 想到热带风暴的危险，我决定不出门。

• imposition of sth on sth 对 … 征收 … ◇resisting the imposition of VAT on fuel 抵制征收燃料增值税

• imposition [ˌɪm.pəˈzɪʃən] n.

• 1.[U] the introduction of something such as a rule, punishment, tax etc 〔规章 、惩罚、税种等的〕实施 ◇the imposition of martial law 戒严的实施

• 2. [C,usually singular] (formal) something that someone expects or asks you to do for them, which is not convenient for you 无理要求 ◇I know it's an imposition, but could I use your bathroom? 实在不好意思，我可以用你的浴室吗？

• household basics 家庭基本用品
  

• basics n. Basics are things such as simple food, clothes, or equipment that people need in order to live or to deal with a particular situation. 必需品；基本需求 ◇supplies of basics such as bread and milk 面包和牛奶等必需品的供应 ◇items that are the basics of a stylish wardrobe 时尚衣柜的必备品

• long-term adj. [usually before noun] that will last or have an effect over a long period of time 长期的；长远的；长期有效的 short-term◇the long-term effects of fertilizers 肥料的长远影响

• [ 经济学人 .Utopia of reason] Empathy is biased:It is limited in scope, often focusing attention on the one at the expense of the many, or on short-term rather than long-term consequences. 同理心带有偏向性：人们倾向于同情与自己相像的人。它具有局限性，往往只见树木不见森林，或者只关心短期效果而忽视长期后果。

• action against sth 针对 … 的行动 ◇action against drug dealers 针对毒贩的行动

• feed through (to sb/sth) to reach sb/sth after going through a process or system 最终得以提供给 ◇It will take time for the higher rates to feed through to investors. 需要时日投资者才能最终得到较高的回报率。

• feed n.[U] food for animals 饲料 ◇fish feed 鱼食

• ultimately [ˈʌltɪmətli] adv. finally, after everything else has been done or considered 最 后，最终 ◇Ultimately, the decision rests with the child's parents. 最终，决定权是在这孩子的父母身上。 ◇a long but ultimately successful campaign 漫长但最终取得了胜利的战役

北京方面意识到，对大豆征收关税或限制进口，会提高中国的食用油和其他家庭基本用品的成本。中国最大的大豆进口商 —— 新希望集团 (New Hope Group) 负责人刘永好表示，针对大豆进口的任何长期行动都会导致中国通胀上扬。他说，原料价格上涨会影响饲料价格，最终影响到中国的所有人。

Beijing’s ability to play a waiting game is helped by the seasons. At this time of the year, China mostly imports the South American soyabean harvest, giving Beijing a six-month window in which it does not rely on shipments from the US. This could present the opportunity to wring the maximum symbolic value from retaliation on US soyabean shipments.

• play a waiting game If you play a waiting game, you deal with a situation by deliberately doing nothing, because you believe you will gain an advantage by acting later, or because you are waiting to see how other people are going to act. 玩拖延战术 ◇He's playing a waiting-game. He'll hope to hang on as long as possible until the pressure is off. 他玩的是拖延战术。他希望尽可能地拖，直到压力消除为止。

• symbolic value 象征意义 ◇It's a non-binding resolution, so really is a symbolic value more than anything meaningful. 这是个没有约束力的决议，没有什么 实际的意义，象征性更大些。

• present the/an opportunity (for sb) to do sth 提供（给某人）做某事的机会

• [ 经济学人 ] The case has presented an opportunity for Yemenis to score a point against the Saudis, who want the Yemeni authorities to return Ms Niran.

• wring sth from / out of sb [rɪŋ] to obtain sth from sb with difficulty, especially by putting pressure on them 从 … 处费力弄到；从 … 压榨出 ◇They are always trying to wring additional funds from the government. 他们总想从政府手中争取到额外资金。 ◇I managed to wring the information out of him. 我总算从他那里弄到了这些信息。

北京方面之所以能够留有后手，在一定程度上是由于季节关系。在每年的这个时候，中国主要进口南美的大豆收成，使北京方面获得无需依赖美国大豆出口的六个月时间窗口。这可能提供了一个机会，让中国从针对美国大豆的报复行动中获取最大象征价值。

Ultimately, however, it will have to buy again. “The reality is there would be a lot of posturing , a lot of toys thrown out of prams,” Gary McGuigan, president of global trade at Archer Daniels Midland, the US grains trader, said before the US tariffs were announced. “But the beans will still come out of the US at some point. ”

• posturing [ˈpɒstʃərɪŋ] n.

• 1. when someone pretends to have a particular opinion or attitude 〔指观点上〕假装的姿态，装腔作势 ◇He dismissed the Senator's comments as ' political posturing '. 他认为参议员的这番话只是一种 “ 政治姿态 ” 而不予考虑。

• 2. when someone stands or moves in a way that they hope will make other people notice and admire them 扭捏作态，做作的举止

• a lot of toys thrown out of prams 来自于 throw one's toys out of the pram ，字面义是将玩具扔出童车，喻指“任性、幼稚的行为” (Behave in a childish and petulant way; have a tantrum.)

• at some point at some moment in time that is not made specific 在某个时刻

但最终而言，中国将不得不再次购买。 “ 现实是会有很多摆姿态的动作，很多玩具被抛出童车， ” 美国谷物交易商阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰 (Archer Daniels Midland ，简称 ADM) 的全球贸易总裁加里 • 麦奎根 (Gary McGuigan) 在美国宣布对华关税之前表示。 “ 但在某个时候，美国仍会输出这些豆子。 ”

China has the option of raising its imports from Brazil, which has had a bumper harvest this year, although a drought in Argentina has reduced some of its normal supply. Mr McGuigan said: “They [China] will not be able to buy all the beans they need. They will still have to go to the US.”

• a bumper harvest/crop 丰收

中国可以选择增加从今年大豆丰收的巴西进口，尽管阿根廷的旱灾减少了该国的一些正常供应。麦圭根说： “ 他们（中国）将买不到他们需要的所有大豆。他们仍将不得不来找美国。 ”

This is where China’s second advantage could come in.

Beijing’s botched grains stockpiling strategy has left it holding more than half of the world’s grain reserves, purchased at above-market prices . Domestic feed companies prefer to buy freshly harvested imports but higher tariffs on US grain could force these companies to use existing stocks, giving China a little more time in a tariff face-off.

• botch 作动词指“把 … 搞糟；笨手笨脚地做” (to spoil sth by doing it badly) ，这里过去分词 botched 相当于一个形容词，指“糟糕的；一塌糊涂的；差劲的”，在这里形容中国的谷物储备战略。

• [ 经济学人 ] This "differentiation" began when Mr Clegg seized an unmissable chance to rough up the Tories over a botched health reform. 当克雷格抓住千载难逢的机会攻击托利派将健康改革搞砸时，这个区别就已经开始了。

• stockpile [ˈstɒkpaɪl]
  n.[C] a large supply of things that is kept ready for use in the future 〔物资的大量〕储备 =store ◇a stockpile of nuclear weapons 核武器储备
  v. to keep adding to a supply of goods, weapons etc that you are keeping ready to use if you need them in the future 贮存，积聚〔物资、武器等〕 ◇An enormous volume of explosives was stockpiled inside one of the buildings. 其中一栋大楼内贮存了大量的炸药。

• above-market prices 高于市场的价格 above-market wages 高于市场的工资

• face-off n.[C ](informal, especially NAmE) an argument or a fight 辩论；搏斗 ◇a face-off between the presidential candidates 总统候选人之间的辩论

这就把话题引到了中国的第二个优势。

北京方面糟糕的谷物储备战略，使其拥有世界谷物储备的一半以上，这些谷物是以高于市场的价格买下来的。国内饲料企业更愿意购买新鲜收割的进口产品，但是针对美国谷物的更高关税可能会迫使企业使用现有库存，这使中国能够在关税对峙中坚持更久。