纽约时报：关于中美贸易冲突，你应该知道的五个问题|外刊精读

第133篇精读

📖上周有小伙伴留言说阅读经济类的文章，我们今天就来读一读热点话题中美贸易战。这篇文章来自《纽约时报》（20180620），从美国视角出发，讨论了关于中美贸易冲突的五个问题：
1.这是一场贸易战吗？
2.特朗普政府行动背后的逻辑是什么？
3.行动有效果吗？
4.这会让美国经济崩溃吗？

5.这会让物价更高吗？

文章篇幅比较长，我们今天先来看前三个问题。

📖 再叮嘱一下大家：

建议大家先 自主阅读原文，再学习精读笔记。

不用强求自己一口气读完，每次打开， 阅读1-2段 即可，既轻松、记忆效果也更好。

阅读完笔记后，回头再读原文段落，测试自己是否能够流畅阅读，是否能回忆起补充的写作要点，并且从整体上把握文章脉络。

📖 关注本公众号 “独霸上海的妖怪” ，后台回复 “外刊” ，可得 2017年全年及2018年 最新的经济学人原版外刊及音频的获取方式。

外刊原文

（大家可以先自己读一遍原文，遇到生词也不用担心，直接跳过，继续往下读，后面会有详解的讲解）

Trade Skirmish or War? Who Gets Hurt?

In the first year of the Trump administration, the president’s threats to upend the global trade system seemed like mostly bluster — lots of threats, not much action.

Not anymore.

The administration moved forward Friday with a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese imports. In recent weeks, it imposed taxes on imported steel and aluminum, including that from close allies like the European Union and Canada. And those actions both follow earlier measures on washing machines and solar panels.

All of which prompts some important questions: Is the United States engaged in what should be classified as a trade war? And what are the economic consequences likely to be?

Is this a trade war?

Definitely maybe.

A“trade war” refers to measures and countermeasures on import restriction that escalate over time, causing trade between two countries to break down.

But there is no specific definition. Everyone would agree that the Depression-era period of escalating tariffs was a trade war. Everyone would agree that, say, George W. Bush’s 2002 steel tariffs and the retaliation by Europe was not. Butthe exact line between trade skirmish and trade war is subjective.

“Yes,we are now in a trade war,” said Mary Lovely, an economist at Syracuse who studies trade. She emphasizes two factors. First, the Trump administration is signaling that it will meet Chinese retaliation with further retaliation, and second, “the two sides are no longer engaged in productive talks to defuse tensions.”

Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, ismore cautious. Is this a trade war? “In my view not yet,” he said. “My view of a trade war is when all countries start responding unilaterally, and without respect to international rules in terms of the levels of tariff retaliation that they engage in.”

So far, China, the European Union and other trading partners have responded within the confines of World Trade Organization rules.

What’s the logic behind the administration’s action?

For many years, American companies have complained of being treated shabbily as they try to do business in China. They often must partner with Chinese companies to be allowed to do business in the country, and frequently complaint hat their most advanced technologies are being stolen, among other concerns.

The Trump administration’s list of goods to be subjected to the tariffs is aimed atthese high-tech sectors, including aerospace, telecommunications equipment and robotics.

Chinahas said it will place tariffs on $50 billion worth of American imports in retaliation. That’s where things get interesting. The Trump administration is threatening to escalate things further if China retaliates, pulling another$100 billion of goods into the mix. This increases the possibility that the dispute will spiral to encompass ever larger swaths of goods.

Will it work?

China views development of its high-tech industries as core to its economic strategy of the future and won’t want to give up advantages in those sectors lightly. Onthe other hand, the substantial U.S. trade deficit with China means theAmerican side has more potential Chinese imports on which to slap punitivetariffs than the Chinese do, a potential source of leverage.

The Trump administration’s negotiating strategy has been erratic. At one point last month, there seemed to be progress toward an accord in which China would buy more American agriculture and energy products. That would have helped reduce the United States’ trade deficit with China, one of the president’s major goals. But it wouldn’t have done much of anything about the longer-term issues around technology theft, and those talks fell apart.

The United States might have a stronger negotiating position if it were joined by allies like Canada, Japan and the European Union. But given the steel and aluminum tariffs and tensions with Canada, the United States finds itself on its own in talks with China.

（To be continued）

精讲笔记

In the first year of the Trump administration, the president’s threats to upend the global trade system seemed like mostly bluster — lots of threats, not much action.

• upend [ʌpˈend] 本义是“倒着放，颠倒” (to turn something over so that it is upside down) ，常引申为“颠覆”。

• [ 经济学人 .Gender budgeting] Redesigning the budgeting process upends decades of practice. 重新设计预算流程也会颠覆已执行数十年的实践。

• the global trade system 全球贸易体系

• bluster [ˈblʌstər]

• n.[U] loudly boastful or threatening speech 威吓；虚张声势 ◇I wasn't frightened by what he said — it was all bluster. 我没有被他的话吓倒 — 那不过是在吓唬人。

• v. to talk in an aggressive or threatening way, but with little effect 气势汹汹地说话，咄咄逼人，威吓（但效果不大）

在特朗普政府执政的第一年里，总统要颠覆全球贸易体系的威胁似乎大都是虚张声势 —— 雷声大雨点小。

The administration moved forward Friday with a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese imports. In recent weeks, it imposed taxes on imported steel and aluminum, including that from close allies like the European Union and Canada. And those actions both follow earlier measures on washing machines and solar panels.

• impose taxes on sth 向 … 征税 我们还可以用 introduce/levy/put a tax on sth 来表达“向 … 征税”（注意： tax 统指 “ 税 ” ， a tax 是 “ 一项税 ” ， taxes 是 “ 多项税 ” ）

• [ 经济学人 . Maple grief] Last summer Vancouver imposed a 15% tax on foreigners’ house purchases. The city’s property market has since cooled. 去年夏天，温哥华开始对外国人购房加征 15% 的税，楼市自此已经降温。

• close allies 亲密盟友

• ally [ˈælaɪ]

• n.[C] If you describe someone as your ally, you mean that they help and support you, especially when other people are opposing you. 盟友；支持者

• v. If you ally yourself with someone or something, you give your support to them. 与 … 结盟；支持 ◇He will have no choice but to ally himself with the new movement. 他除了与新运动结盟别无选择。

特朗普政府周五宣布，对从中国进口的价值 500 亿美元的产品加征 25% 的关税。政府在最近几周对进口钢材和铝材加征了关税，包括来自欧盟和加拿大等亲密盟友的钢材和铝材。这些行动是在早些时候对洗衣机和太阳能电池板加征关税之后采取的。

All of which prompts some important questions: Is the United States engaged in what should be classified as a trade war? And what are the economic consequences likely to be?

• all of which 指代上一段提到的特朗普加征关税的行动

• be classified as sth 被归类为 … ◇In law, beer is classified as a food product. 在法律上，啤酒归在食品类。

所有这一切引发了一些重要的问题：美国是否卷入了一场应该被归类为贸易战的冲突？其经济后果可能会怎样？

0 1

Is this a trade war? 这是一场贸易战吗？

Definitely maybe. 绝对可能是。

A “trade war” refers to measures and countermeasures on import restriction that escalate over time, causing trade between two countries to break down.

• countermeasures [ˈkaʊntəˌmeʒər] n. [usually plural] an action taken to prevent another action from having a harmful effect 对策 ; 对付措施

• escalates [ˈes.kə.leɪt] v. If a bad situation escalates or if someone or something escalates it, it becomes greater in size, seriousness, or intensity. 使扩大；使恶化；使升级

“ 贸易战 ” 是指国家之间对进口商品不断升级的限制和反制，导致两国之间的贸易崩溃。

But there is no specific definition. Everyone would agree that the Depression-era period of escalating tariffs was a trade war. Everyone would agree that, say , George W. Bush’s 2002 steel tariffs and the retaliation by Europe was not. But the exact line between trade skirmish and trade war is subjective .

• escalating tarrifs 指不断提高的关税 除了指“恶化，升级”外， escalate 还可以指“升高，增加”，比如 ◇the escalating costs of health care 逐渐增加的保健费用

• say 在这里指“比方说”，用于举例，相当于 for example ，比如 ◇ Let's take any writer, say Dickens. 我们随便举一个作家为例，比如说狄更斯。 [熟词僻义]

• [ 经济学人 . Amason’s empire] The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook , say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away. 数字平台原本相对而言享有更多的法律责任豁免 —— 比如在 Facebook 上发布煽动性内容或是审核优步司机这类事件上，但这种特权如今也在逐渐削弱。

• retaliation [rɪˌtæliˈeɪʃən] n. [U] action against someone who has done something bad to you 报复，反击 ◇The shooting may have been in retaliation for the arrest of the terrorist suspects. 枪击事件可能是对逮捕嫌疑恐怖分子进行的报复行动。 retaliate v.

• skirmish 与 war 不同， war 往往是较大的战争，比如第二次世界大战 the Second World War ，贸易战 a trade war 而 skirmish 指小规模的冲突

• subjective [səbˈdʒek.tɪv] adj. Something that is subjective is based on personal opinions and feelings rather than on facts . 主观的；非客观的

但贸易战并没有具体的定义。所有人都会同意，大萧条时期不断提高的关税是一场贸易战。每个人都会同意，比如乔治 ·W· 布什 (George W. Bush)2002 年对钢铁征收的关税、以及欧洲的报复行动不是贸易战。但贸易冲突和贸易战之间的确切界线没有客观的定义。

“Yes, we are now in a trade war,” said Mary Lovely, an economist at Syracuse who studies trade. She emphasizes two factors. First, the Trump administration is signaling that it will meet Chinese retaliation with further retaliation, and second, “the two sides are no longer engaged in productive talks to defuse tensions.”

• signal 既可以作名词指“信号”，也可以作动词表示“发信号;示意”，常引申为 “标志着；预示”比如 ◇ The scandal surely signals the end of his political career. 毫无疑问，这桩丑闻预示他的政治生涯就此结束。

• signal 还经常指用语言或行动“表示，表明”，比如去年伦敦发生恐怖袭击后，特蕾莎·梅表示要加强打击激进伊斯兰主义的斗争，金融时报的报道就用到了 signal 一词 ： She also signalled her intention to step up the fight against radical Islamism, saying, “We cannot and must not pretend that things can continue as they are . . . Enough is enough.” 她还表示要 加强打击激进伊斯兰主义的斗争，称: “ 我们无法，也绝不能假装一切可以保持不 变 ...... 我们已经受够了。 ” [熟词僻义]

• [ 经济学人 ] Some think that changes in how quickly a person swipes a phone’s touchscreen might signal the onset of cognitive problems. 有人认为， 如果一个人滑动手机屏幕的速度有变，可能是出现认知问题的征兆。 [

• defuse [ˌdiːˈfjuːz] v. If you defuse a dangerous or tense situation, you calm it. 化解，缓和，平息（危险或紧张局势） ◇Officials will hold four days of talks aimed at defusing tensions over trade. 官员们将举行为期 4 天旨在消除贸易紧张关系的会谈。

“ 是的，我们现在正在一场贸易战中， ” 研究贸易的雪城大学 (Syracuse) 经济学家玛丽 · 络芜里 (Mary Lovely) 说。她强调了两个因素。第一，特朗普政府已发出信号，它将对中国的报复措施采取进一步的报复行动。第二， “ 双方已不再为缓和紧张局势进行有效益的谈判。 ”

Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is more cautious. Is this a trade war? “In my view not yet,” he said. “My view of a trade war is when all countries start responding unilaterally , and without respect to international rules in terms of the levels of tariff retaliation that they engage in.”

• unilaterally [ˌjuː.nɪˈlætərəli] adv. in a unilateral manner; by means of one part or party 单方面的

彼得森国际经济研究所 (Peterson Institute for International Economics) 高级研究员乍得 · 鲍恩 (Chad Bown) 则持更谨慎的态度。这是一场贸易战吗？ “ 在我看来还不是， ” 他说。 “ 我对贸易战的看法是，所有的国家都开始单方面地做出反应，而且在所采取的报复关税水平上，它们都不遵守国际规则。

” So far, China, the European Union and other trading partners have responded within the confines of World Trade Organization rules.

• confine 作名词一般以复数形式出现，指“边界；界限；范围”， within the confines of sth 指在 … 边界、范围内 (Something that is within the confines of an area or place is within the boundaries enclosing it. ) ◇ The movie is set entirely within the confines of the abandoned factory. 电影的拍摄完全是在这个废弃的工厂厂区内进行。

到目前为止，中国、欧盟，以及美国的其他贸易伙伴作出的反应都是在世界贸易组织规定的范围内。

02

What’s the logic behind the administration’s action?

是什么逻辑在支配特朗普政府的行动？

For many years, American companies have complained of being treated shabbily as they try to do business in China. They often must partner with Chinese companies to be allowed to do business in the country, and frequently complain that their most advanced technologies are being stolen, among other concerns.

• be treated shabbily 受到不公正的对待 ◇I think you were very shabbily treated. 要我说，你真是受大委屈了。

• shabby [ˈʃæb.i] adj. (of behaviour)unfair or unreasonable （行为）不公正的；不讲理的 =shoddy

• shabby 还可以指“破旧的，破烂的” (in poor condition because they have been used a lot) ，比如 ◇ She wore shabby old jeans and a T-shirt. 她穿着一条破旧的牛仔裤和一件 T 恤衫。 shabby 还可以形容人，指“衣衫褴褛的”，比如 ◇a shabby tramp 一个衣衫褴褛的流浪汉

• among other + 复数名词 指“以及其他 … ”或“等等” 比如 ◇At the meeting they discussed, among other things, recent events in Japan. 会上除其他议题外，他们还讨论了日本近来发生的事件。 ◇Beethoven, Mozart and Schubert, among other composers 贝多芬、莫扎特、舒伯特以及其他作曲家。

• [ 经济学人 .Epic Fall] Among other things, this will give users more power to opt out of being tracked online and to stop their information being shared with third parties. 这 会有各种好处，其一是用户会获得更多的权力，选择不被在线追踪，或不与第三方共享 自己的信息。

多年来，美国公司一直抱怨在中国做生意时受到不公正的对待。它们通常必须与中国企业合资，才能获得在中国做生意的许可，美国公司还经常抱怨，它们最先进的技术正在被窃走等等。

The Trump administration’s list of goods to be subjected to the tariffs is aimed at these high-tech sectors, including aerospace, telecommunications equipment and robotics.

• be subjected to sth 经受；遭受 比如受到嘲笑 be subjected to ridicule ，受到严厉的批评 be subjected to severe criticism

特朗普政府将加征关税的产品清单针对的是包括航天、电信和机器人在内的高技术行业。

China has said it will place tariffs on $50 billion worth of American imports in retaliation. That’s where things get interesting. The Trump administration is threatening to escalate things further if China retaliates, pulling another $100 billion of goods into the mix. This increases the possibility that the dispute will spiral to encompass ever larger swaths of goods.

• place tariffs on sth in retaliation 向 … 征收报复性关税

• spiral v. to increase rapidly 急剧增长

• encompass [ɪnˈkʌmpəs] v. to include a wide range of ideas, subjects, etc 包含，包括 ◇The study encompasses the social, political, and economic aspects of the situation. 这项研究包含了这一情况的社会、政治和经济三方面。

• swaths of sth 原义是“一长条，一长片” (a large strip or area of sth) ，比如 ◇ Development has affected vast swathes of our countryside. 发展影响了乡村广大地区。在文中 ever larger swaths of goods 指“越来越多的商品”， ever+形容词比较级 ，表示“越来越”，比如 ◇the ever growing threat of war 日益严重的战争威胁 ◇ the ever worsening unemployment 每况愈下的失业现象。

中国表示将对价值 500 亿美元的美国进口产品征收报复性关税。事情在这里变得有意思了。特朗普政府威胁说，如果中国采取报复行动的话，将让事态进一步升级，政府已将价值 1000 亿美元的更多商品纳入可能加征关税的行列。这就增加了纠纷不断升级、把越来越多的商品包括进来的可能性。

03

Will it work?

会奏效吗？

China views development of its high-tech industries as core to its economic strategy of the future and won’t want to give up advantages in those sectors lightly. On the other hand, the substantial U.S. trade deficit with China means the American side has more potential Chinese imports on which to slap punitive tariffs than the Chinese do, a potential source of leverage.

• view sth as sth 在我们往期的精读文章中已经出现了无数遍了，意思是“将 … 看作”，类似的表达还有 see sth as sth, regard sth as sth , think of sth as sth 等等，可以打包一起记忆。 [写作推荐]

• [ 经济学人 .Not losing it] Banks have been slow to respond, at first seeing these risks as purely a matter for customers. 银行对此一向反应迟钝，起初它们认为这些风险纯粹是客户个人问题。

• [ 经济学人 . Wedding wows] For the first time in the history of Chinese family life, the child—rather than ancestors or parents— is regarded as the centre of the family, says Yan Yunxiang of the University of California, Los Angeles. 加州大学洛杉矶分校的阎云翔说，中国的家庭生活史上，这是第一次，孩子，而不是先辈或父母，被视为家庭的中心。

• give up sth lighly 轻易放弃某物

• XX+of the future 指“未来的