作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 陈宇灏
本报告完成时间 | 2024年9月10日
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Background:
Common statistics such as port throughput volume or
export data are typically lagging indicators for container volume.
Thus, we are giving some simple thoughts how to create a
rough estimation for container volume using the public information we have at
hand.
Since a container volume statistics should
always equal capacity deployed times utilization. We are giving an illustration
on this idea for China-North Europe service in the period of August 2024 and
September 2024.
Proclaimer: We calculate the
capacity deployed based on the originally planned ETD. There will be some
differences from the actual capacity due to the chaos in service schedule,but it still works as a parameter to show our
ideas.
Step 1. Estimation on Container Volumes in
Previous month
We use the “Belt and Road Container Volume Index
(BRCVI)-China's(Shanghai) export container volume to the nations
on Silk Road at sea” by Shanghai Shipping Exchange as a measure of container
volume in the previous months.
From Figure1, we have 1. For the summer peak season of
2024, BRCVI confirms the export figure issued by GACC; 2. BRCVI leads most
statistics that only covers July 2024 for now.
Step 2. Estimation on Capacity Deployed and
Utilization
The
capacity deployed in September is actually close to that in August, which is
around 4.3% lower MOM. If we take the delayed extra service of ONE Maneuver
into account, this gap estimation may be even smaller.
Assumptions
on the parameters made to simplify the model:
Utilization in August
is 100%.
Average utilization in
September is 90%.
Now, we have an
estimation of BRCVI(an indicator of container volume) of 132.67. This
estimation for September is 13.7% lower MOM, but still 4.4% higher YOY.
For
those who have a more reliable data of utilization, a more accurate result can
be expected:
For example, if
average utilization in August is 95%, than the model output will be 139.65, 9.3%
lower MOM, but still 9.9% higher YOY.
Step 3. Outlook of October
From Figure3, taking the standalone services into
account, the capacity deployed in October 2024 may not necessarily be higher
than 2023.
For the volume in October, if we assume it is 0% YOY,
than it should be 124.32 in BRCVI, which means a further 6.3% decline MOM for
the conservative estimation of 132.67(September’s BRCVI, see previous
discussions).
Considering the overall strong performance
of export in 2024, we believe it is likely to have a positive YOY.
In conclusion, we are not expecting a too
loose supply-demand balance in October, since the liners are somewhat actively
controlling the capacity.
Step 4. Some reflections
While all the liners have a more detailed data, we believe
our model may provide a different perspective of view for the freight market.
Blaming a weakening demand when some liners start to actively
or even radically cut their freight rates and drag other liners into a price
war has become a stereotype of the freight market.
However, even with a more conservative estimation of the
volume in September, we found that the export demand itself may not be as bad
as the FAK rates shows.
研究员：陈宇灏
期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0019939
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