事件：隆平高科發佈2024年半年度業績預盈公告，預計2024年上半年歸母淨利潤盈利0.9億元至1.2億元，扭虧爲盈（去年同期虧損1.61億）。
2024年上半年扣除非經常性損益後的淨利潤虧損2.9億元至2.2億元，虧損加大（去年同期扣非後虧損0.64億）。
Stable China market buildout: GMO corn seeds boost growth; rice revenue spike
H1E preview:
Long Ping High-Tech released a preview of its 24H1E earnings with net profit at RMB90m-120m, a turnaround from the RMB161m loss a year ago, while ex-nonrecurring net loss deepened to RMB290m-220m from the RMB64m loss a year ago.
國內市場佈局紮實領先，轉基因助推玉米種子增量，水稻收入較快增長
1）玉米：轉基因玉米推廣，公司表現強勢。在首批轉基因玉米品種公示品種中，隆平高科獲批品種數量位列第一，在2024H1進行產業化推廣。公司轉基因玉米品種表現優異，在主推品種基礎上形成一定的市場增量，是公司玉米板塊較強的重要原因。
2）水稻：保持行業領先，上半年較快增長。2024H1水稻產業營業收入較上年同期增長超過 20%，淨利潤較上年同期增加約 0.65 億元。
3）此外，公司通過股權轉讓方式爲隆平生物引進具有資源性優勢的戰略性股東，將持有隆平生物的 10.94%股權轉讓給中央企業鄉村產業投資基金，本次交易預計增加公司當期投資收益約 3.4 億元（屬於非經常性損益）。
我們認爲，公司國內種業龍頭地位明確，收入佔比最大的玉米和水稻業務均展現良好的發展勢頭。
Takeaway: we believe Long Ping has a clear lead in China’s seed industry in view of stable growth in its core revenue drivers of corn and rice.
Corn:
Long Ping’s push for the genetically modified (GMO) corn business has yielded strong results. It publicized the first batch of transgenics and obtained the highest number of approved varietals for commercialization and promotion in 24H1. Its success in GMO varietals increase the potential to contribute incrementally to the main varietals business, which would strengthen total corn business prospects.
Rice:
Long Ping leads the rice production market and business grew quickly in H1, with revenue up by over 20% yoy and net profit increasing by about RMB65m yoy.
Strategic stake cut:
the company reduced its stake in Long Ping Biotech (LP Bio) to 5% by transferring 10.94% to the Centrally Managed SOEs’ Rural Industry Investment Fund, which simultaneously expanded the fund’s stake in LP Bio to 45%. We reckon Long Ping High Tech’s strategic move boosted current investment income by about RMB340m (a non-recurring impact).
巴西公司匯兌損失較多，玉米種植低景氣度，拖累24H1業績
1）匯兌損失增加較多。24H1受美聯儲持續加息週期影響，境外匯率波動較大，公司境外子公司中長期外幣貸款產生的匯兌損失同比增加約 2.8 億元，使得財務費用較上年同期大幅增加，影響24H1利潤。
2）巴西玉米種子價格下降，巴西公司業績或承壓。巴西的玉米種子價格自2018年起開始上漲，到2022年達到頂峯，隨後在2023年呈現下降趨勢，公司種子價格波動受糧食價格的影響，預估對巴西種子利潤產生影響。
2024年上半年，公司已經開始公司利用人民幣跨境直貸和NRA賬戶放款機制，幫助子公司進行貸款置換，減少未來的外匯風險。我們認爲，隨着公司對外匯資產管理方面的成熟與進步，公司海外業務發展有望更爲堅實。
Brazil: heavy FX losses; weak corn seed market dragged profit; NRA direct loans
Volatile FX:
foreign exchange losses deepened in 24H1 with volatile FX rates, a result of the US Federal Reserve’s continuous interest rate hike cycle. FX losses worsened by about RMB280m yoy for Long Ping’s foreign subsidiaries’ medium and long-term foreign currency loans, increasing financial expenses on a yoy basis, which hurt 24H1 profits.
Corn seed price fall:
falling corn seed prices in Brazil have put Brazilian companies’ earnings under pressure. Corn seed prices started to rise in 2018 and reached a peak in 2022, after which they sloped off in 2023. Long Ping’s seed price volatility is due are affected by food prices, which is expected to have an impact on Brazil’s seed profits.
NRA direct loans:
Long Ping started to use cross-border RMB direct loans in 24H1 through non-resident account (NRA) lending facilities, which helped its subsidiaries refinance their loans and reduce FX risks. As the company’s FX and asset management ability matures, we believe its foreign business growth will stabilize.
