事件:
公司發佈2024年一季報,24Q1實現營收1186.9億元,yoy+12.09%;實現歸母淨利潤41.85億元,yoy+33.77%;實現扣非歸母淨利潤42.72億元,yoy+33.22%。
24Q1E: better-than-expected unaudited results with increasing AI profit elasticity
Key metrics:
Foxconn Industrial Internet (Fii) released unaudited 24Q1E results last week with revenue at RMB118.69bn (up 12.09% yoy), net profit at RMB4.19bn (up 33.77% yoy) and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB4.272bn (up 33.22% yoy). Gross margin was 7.64%, up 0.28ppt yoy.
點評:24Q1業績超預期,AI業績彈性持續釋放。
24Q1實現營收1186.9億元,yoy+12.09%;實現歸母淨利潤41.85億元,yoy+33.77%;實現扣非歸母淨利潤42.72億元,yoy+33.22%。AI環比持續增長,收入佔比持續提升,24Q1雲計算業務收入佔整體收入近五成;AI 服務器佔服務器整體收入近四成,AI 服務器收入同比增長近兩倍,環比呈現近雙位數比率增長;生成式 AI 服務器同比增加近三倍,環比亦呈雙位數比率增長,通用服務器較去年同期實現雙位數比率增長,同時實現個位數比率環比增長。24Q1公司銷售毛利率爲7.64%,yoy+0.28pct。
Segmental snapshot:
Fii’s AI-driven business is growing qoq, while the segment continues to expand revenue share. A revenue breakdown for the quarter shows:
•Cloud computing accounted for nearly 50% of total revenue
•AI server revenue nearly doubled yoy with an almost double-digit growth rate qoq, accounting for close to 40% of total server revenue
•Generative AI servers shot up nearly 3x yoy and rose by a double-digit rate qoq
•General-purpose servers lifted by a double-digit rate yoy and a single-digit rate qoq.
持續看好公司在AI領域的核心卡位和業績彈性釋放:
雲計算業務:1)行業層面:隨着全球經濟景氣回溫,據市場研究機構IDC預測,2024年全球雲服務商資本支出將大幅增加,尤其在AI資本支出方面將維持近一倍的成長,且AI佔整體資本支出的比例將由原先的25%提高至39%。全球前四大雲服務商在2024年的資本支出皆有兩位數以上成長;2)雲服務業務:持續受益於服務器白牌化+公司份額領先(雲計算服務器出貨量持續全球第一,主要客戶涵蓋北美前三大CSP服務商+國內頭部CSP服務商及互聯網應用服務企業)+一條龍服務優勢明顯(產品設計、技術開發、關鍵零組件、系統組建、運籌管理到彈性調配交付),雲服務佔比進一步提升,23年雲服務商產品在雲計算收入中佔比快速提升,23年佔比近五成;3)AI服務器業務:持續受益於ChatGPT等新興AI產品對算力、帶寬、GPU、高容量儲存、先進散熱與節能需求激增+綁定行業頭部客戶(多年來一直是數家第一梯隊雲服務商AI服務器(加速器)與AI存儲器供應商)+產品持續迭代具備技術領先性(相關AI服務器、AI存儲器產品持續迭代已開發至第四代),23年雲計算產品中佔比提升至約30%;
AI and cloud computing: Fii’s pole position in the market and profit elasticity
Rising industry momentum:
as the global economy picks up, market research firm IDC projects global cloud service providers’ capex will rise strongly in 2024E, with AI capex in particular set to nearly double so that its capex share would rise from 25% to 39%. The top four global cloud service providers are likely to post double-digit capex growth in 2024E.
Cloud services:
we expect the rising white labeling of servers will continue to fuel Fii’s business and we believe the global market leader will see its cloud service business share expand. We like its pole position in the industry: Fii’s cloud computing server shipments are the world’s highest; its major customers include the top three cloud service providers (CSPs) in North America, as well as leading Chinese CSPs and internet application service companies. Its one-stop service competitive advantage covers product design, technology development, key components, system construction, operational management, as well as flexible deployment and deliveries. Fii’s CSP product business is growing fast and it contributed nearly 50% of cloud computing revenue in 2023.
AI servers:
emerging AI products such as ChatGPT have driven a demand surge for computing power, bandwidth, GPU, high-capacity storage, advanced heat dissipation and energy savings. Fii has strong partnerships with industry-leading customers (having supplied AI servers (accelerators) and AI memory to first-tier CSPs for years). In light of its tech leadership and product iterations (such as the development and iteration of related AI servers and AI memory products to the fourth generation), the proportion of cloud computing products expanded to about 30% in 2023.
網絡通信業務:
1)行業層面:數據流量增長,高帶寬業務的開展和部署對網絡設備要求增多。根據IDC數據,2023年交換機市場規模爲446億美元,較上年成長21%。;2)網絡設備:持續受益於企業數字化基礎設施建設升級和雲端應用快速增長+企業網絡設備擁有佔全球市場份額超75%以上的領先客戶羣體,23年路由器業務同比實現雙位數成長,200G、400G交換機出貨顯著提升,800G交換機也已進入NPI階段,預計24年可貢獻營收。
Network communications: strong growth in routers, and 200G and 400G switches
Industry potential:
growing data traffic is driving the development and deployment of high-bandwidth services, and increasing requirements for network equipment. The switch market amounted to USD44.6bn in 2023, IDC data shows, an increase of 21% from the previous year.
Network equipment:
Fii continues to benefit from enterprise digital infrastructure upgrades and rapid growth of cloud applications and enterprise network equipment. In terms of global market share, the company covers over 75% of the leading customer base. Its router business is growing at an annual double-digit pace, while shipments of 200G and 400G switches have increased handsomely; meanwhile, its 800G switches entered the new product introduction stage and will likely contribute revenue in 2024E.