整體業績：收入增長修復，盈利繼續向好。我們預計2Q24收入同比+8%，毛利同比+20%，Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤同比+36%
我們預計2Q2024騰訊收入約1619億元，同比+8%，增速較1Q2024有所恢復
。遊戲增長開始修復，廣告繼續維持較高同比增長，FBS收入增速環比有所下滑。
我們預計2Q2024公司整體毛利約850億元，同比+20%；整體毛利率爲52.5%，同比提升5.1pct，環比基本持平。
高毛利率的增量業務（包括小遊戲分成、視頻號廣告、金融科技高毛利率產品、帶貨技術服務費等）的佔比有望持續提升。
我們預計2Q2024公司Non-IFRS經營利潤約573億元，同比增長25%；Non-IFRS經營利潤率約35.4%，同比提升4.6pct，環比下降1.3pct。
考慮到二季度上線了重量級新遊《地下城與勇士：起源》，我們預計2Q2024銷售費用投放環比有所增長，整體或仍低於4Q2023水平（彼時《元夢之星》上線）。
我們預計2Q2024公司Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤約511億元，同比增長36%；Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤率約31.6%，同比提升6.4pct，環比微增0.1pct。
我們預計2Q2024Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤增長快於經營利潤增長，主要系：1）預計部分重點投資企業盈利提升下，2Q2024分佔聯合營公司損益繼續同比提升。2）預計2Q2024公司Non-IFRS所得稅率高基數下同比下滑，或逐步迴歸常態區間。
24Q2E preview: revenue up 8% yoy and non-IFRS net profit up 36% yoy
This report presents a preview of Tencent’s 24Q2E earnings prior to its results release scheduled for 14 Aug 2024. We believe revenue growth resumed in Q2E, which have boosted earnings.
Key metrics:
•Revenue:
we expect Tencent generated about RMB161.9bn in revenue in 24Q2E, up 8% yoy as growth sped up vs Q1. Segmentally, we reckon game revenue resumed growth, ads maintained high yoy growth, and fintech and business services (FBS) growth likely slowed qoq.
•Gross profit:
we expect about RMB85bn in gross profit, up 20% yoy.
•Non-IFRS net profit:
we expect an increase of 36% yoy.
Profitability:
•Gross margin:
we expect 52.5% in the second quarter, 5.1ppt wider yoy and flattish qoq. We believe that the incremental growth proportion of high-gross-margin businesses will keep expanding, including mini-games, video account ads, fintech products and tech service fees.
•Non-IFRS operating profit
of about RMB57.3bn in 24Q2E, a yoy increase of 25%; with non-IFRS operating margin at about 35.4%, up 4.6ppt yoy and down 1.3ppt qoq. We expect the launch of Dungeon & Fighter: Mobile in the second quarter would have raised sales expenses qoq in Q2E, but total sales expenses would have fallen vs 23Q4 (DreamStar was launched).
•Non-IFRS net profit
of about RMB51.1bn in 24Q2E, up 36% yoy, with non-IFRS net margin at about 31.6%, up 6.4ppt yoy and a 0.1ppt uptick qoq. We expect non-IFRS net profit growth to overtake operating profit growth, mainly due to:
-JV earnings’ yoy growth in 24Q2E on better profitability at some key companies;
-Tencent’s non-IFRS income tax rate would have declined yoy on a high base in 23Q2 and gradual normalization.
網絡遊戲：我們預計國內/海外遊戲收入均有望迎來數個季度環比加速
我們預計1Q2024公司網絡遊戲收入同比+10.5%，其中國內市場收入同比+9.6%，海外市場收入同比+13%。
展望後續，我們預計騰訊遊戲業務收入將進入連續多個季度的環比加速，有望帶動市場盈利增長預期和風險偏好持續增強。
- 國內遊戲，《地下城與勇士：起源》5月21日上線後73天內共有63天IOS遊戲暢銷榜排名第一。參考《王者榮耀》流量量級，我們預計其增量貢獻顯著，騰訊國內遊戲收入將處於3-4個季度的環比加速。
- 海外遊戲，《荒野亂鬥》優異表現推動1Q2024海外遊戲流水同比+34%，4月至今其在主要市場的IOS暢銷榜排名較一季度進一步提升，疊加Supercell新遊戲《Squad busters》5月末全球上線，考慮到海外遊戲流水遞延週期，我們預計騰訊海外遊戲收入同樣將迎來數個季度的環比加速。
Online games: both China and foreign revenue growth likely sped up qoq
We expect Tencent’s online game revenue grew 10.5% yoy in 24Q1E as the China market rose 9.6% yoy and the foreign market grew 13% yoy. Up ahead, we expect game revenue growth will accelerate qoq for several consecutive quarters, which would raise the market’s earnings growth expectations and expand its risk appetite.
China market:
•Dungeon & Fighter:
Mobile
topped iOS bestselling games listings on 63 of the 73 days since it was launched on 21 May.
•Honor of Kings:
we believe user traffic volumes contributed to the game’s strong incremental growth.
•Market outlook:
we expect Chinese market game revenue will accelerate qoq in the next 3-4 quarters.
Foreign market:
•Brawl Stars:
a strong performance by Brawl Stars likely boosted Tencent’s foreign market turnover growth at 34% yoy in 24Q1. The game’s current ranking on iOS bestseller lists in major markets has improved since April vs Q1.
•Squad Busters
Supercell launched the new game worldwide at end-May.
•Market outlook:
we expect Tencent’s foreign game revenue will accelerate qoq over the next several quarters.
網絡廣告：我們預計收入同比+19%，勢頭延續；預計毛利率提升至57%
我們預計2Q2024廣告收入同比+19%，環比+12%，主要由於視頻號流量繼續健康增長、廣告擴容有序進行、AI技術平臺提升投放效果。
我們預計2Q2024廣告業務毛利率提升至57.3%，主要由於二季度電商旺季，高毛利率的視頻號廣告佔比有望進一步提升。
Online ads: revenue growth maintained at 19% yoy in Q2E; 57% gross margin
We expect 24Q2E advertising revenue would have grown 19% yoy and 12% qoq, mainly due to healthy user traffic growth at video accounts, smooth expansion of the advertising business, along with improved delivery of the AI technology platform. We expect advertising gross margin would have increased to 57.3% in Q2E, mainly because it was ecommerce peak season. We expect the proportion of high-gross-margin video account ads will keep expanding.
金融科技及企業服務：我們預計收入同比+6%，宏觀消費或小幅影響金融科技增速
我們預計2Q2024金融科技及企業服務收入同比+6%，增速較1Q2024略有回落，主要由於宏觀消費放緩下，我們預計2Q2024金融科技服務收入數下增速回落至低個位數數水平。公司金融科技及企業服務毛利率由4Q2021的27.1%持續提升至1Q2024的45.6%，其中包括宏觀需求回暖帶動的經營槓桿恢復、雲業務重組帶動毛利率提升、以及視頻號帶貨技術服務費的快速發展。我們預計業務毛利率提升趨勢有望在中期內延續。
FBS: revenue rose 6% yoy in Q2E partially due to rising macro consumption
•Revenue:
we expect fintech and corporate services generated revenue growth of 6% yoy in 24Q2E, slightly down from 24Q1, mainly due to a slowdown in macro consumption as revenue growth declined to a low-single-digit.
•Gross margin
increased from 27.1% in 21Q4 to 45.6% in 24Q1, as operating leverage improved on a macro demand recovery and gross margin expanded with a cloud business restructure, on top of fast-growing video account tech service fees. We expect the gross margin uptrend to be maintained in the medium term.
