FY24Q4收入同增32%，Non-GAAP歸母淨利受短期因素影響同減41%
公司發佈新一期財報，FY24Q4（2024/3/1-2024/5/31）收入11.4億美元同增32.1%，其中出國備考同增17.7%，出國諮詢同增17.3%，成人及大學生備考業務同增16.4%；教育新業務保持強勁增長，同增50.3%，其中非學科類教培報名人次88萬，智能學習系統季度內活躍付費用戶達18.8萬。
FYQ4E revenue up 32%; non-GAAP net profit down 41% yoy on short-term drag
FY24Q4E revenue profile:
New Oriental Education & Technology released unaudited FY24Q4E (fiscal quarter ended May 2024) results on 31 July with revenue at USD1.14bn, up 32.1% yoy. A business breakdown in yoy terms shows:
•Preparation for foreign college entrance exams
increased 17.7%
•Consultations on studying overseas
increased 17.3%
•Adult classes and local exam prep
increased 16.4%
•New education business initiatives
maintained strong growth at 50.3%, with:
-880,000 non-academic training course enrollments and
-188,000 active paying users of the company’s smart learning system and devices.
FY24Q4公司Non-GAAP經營利潤0.4億美元同減53.8%，Non-GAAP OPM3.2%同減5.9pct；歸母淨利0.3億美元同減6.9%，Non-GAAP歸母淨利0.4億美元同減40.5%，Non-GAAP歸母淨利率3.2%同減4pct。
FYQ4E profit profile:
non-GAAP operating profit was USD40m, down 53.8% yoy, with non-GAAP OPM at 3.2%, down 5.9ppt yoy; net profit at USD30m, down 6.9% yoy; and non-GAAP net profit at USD40m, down 40.5% yoy, with non-GAAP net margin at 3.2%, down 4ppt yoy.
FY24全年公司收入43.1億美元同增43.9%；Non-GAAP OPM爲11%同增1.6pct；歸母淨利潤3.1億美元同增74.6%，Non-GAAP歸母淨利3.8億美元同增47.2%，Non-GAAP歸母淨利率8.8%同增0.2pct。
FY24E key metrics:
•Revenue amounted to USD4.31bn, up 43.9% yoy
•Net profit was USD310m, up 74.6% yoy
•Non-GAAP net profit was USD380m, up 47.2% yoy; with non-GAAP net margin at 8.8%, up 0.2ppt yoy
•Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 11%, up 1.6ppt yoy.
我們認爲，FY24Q4利潤同比減少主要系：1）公司投資加速擴展教育空間及新整合的文旅業務；2）提升管理層及員工的薪酬獎勵；3）東方甄選Q4的短期影響。伴隨後續短期因素不再、網點利用率及經營效率提升，利潤壓力或將快速減輕。
Our takeaways:
we attribute the yoy profit decline in FYQ4E mainly to:
•Investments plowed into education to speed up growth as well as the newly integrated cultural tourism business
•Higher remunerations and incentives for management and other employees
•The short-term impact of subsidiary East Buy’s divestment of the Walk with Hui livestream ecommerce business.
Our outlook for FY25E:
absent of the FY24E drag factors, improving utilization rates at the learning centers and higher operating efficiency would help relieve margin pressure.
公司指引FY25Q1收入（剔除東方甄選自營產品直播電商業務）爲12.5-12.8億美元，同比增長31-34%；利潤率或同比改善2pct。FY25各業務線收入增速指引分別爲：出國備考增速20-25%，出國諮詢業務增速15%左右，教育新業務增速45-50%，高中業務增速25-30%。
Company guidance for FY25E:
New Oriental guided revenue of USD1.25bn-1.28bn in FY25Q1E, up 31-34% yoy (excluding East Buy’s own-label products and livestream ecommerce), expecting profit margin to improve 2ppt yoy. It projects the following revenue growth profile in FY25E by business category:
•Overseas college exam prep: up 20-25%
•Overseas study consultations: up 15%
•New education initiatives: up 45-50%
•Senior high school business: up 25-30%.
FY24網點數量同增37%，新財年擴張速度預計爲20-25%
截至5月末，公司學校及學習中心數量合計爲1025間，其中學校81間；Q4即3-5月期間淨增114間，Q4末數量環比增長12.5%，同比增長37%，擴張速度較快；公司計劃FY25網點擴張20-25%。
我們認爲，較快的網點擴張速度反映了當前教培行業需求強勁及高景氣度，未來伴隨新開網點招生、利用率爬坡及規模效應的釋放，公司業績或將迎來快速增長。
Learning center network expanded 37% in FY24; plans 20-25% rise in FY25E
Fast ramp-up:
New Oriental’s total school and learning center network stands at 1,025 as of end-May, including 81 schools. It net added 114 outlets in FYQ4 (March to May), representing rapid growth at 12.5% qoq and 37% yoy as of end-FYQ4. The company plans to further expand its physical network by 20-25% in FY25E.
Our view:
we believe the rapid rise in the number of outlets reflects strong current demand and a booming education and training industry. We expect New Oriental’s profitability will grow fast in the future, boosted by enrollments at newly opened centers, higher utilization rates and the scale effect.
東方甄選系短期影響因素，文旅業務或逐步貢獻業績
新東方FY24H2利潤影響主要因素之一系東方甄選業績表現及與輝同行剝離產生的影響，後者或將在FY25Q1繼續產生一次性費用，但後續相關業績表現有望趨於平穩。
文旅業務暫處虧損狀態，FY24收入約3.8億人民幣，FY25公司預計收入或達12億人民幣；FY26或可達成盈虧平衡狀態，逐步爲新東方貢獻可觀收入業績。
Up ahead: East Buy impact subsides; cultural tourism set to kick in profit share
East Buy:
one key drag on New Oriental’s profit performance in FY24H2E was the East Buy divestment of Walk with Hui, which could still incur one-off expenses in FY25Q1E, after which we expect profitability will stabilize.
Cultural tourism:
we believe the current loss-making phase of the business is temporary. Following RMB380m revenue in FY24E, the company expects it will generate revenue of RMB1.2bn in FY25E, and the business could break even in FY26E. We anticipate the cultural tourism business will grow gradually and could contribute substantially to total revenue in the future.
