背景介绍:
独角兽,像是被“困”住了。数据显示,从2022年一季度到四季度,全球新晋独角兽的数量下降了85%。去年独角兽的日子看上去也不太妙。美国硅谷银行发生挤兑的同一周,美国自动驾驶卡车独角兽 Embark 宣布倒闭。在 Embark 之前,估值70亿美元的L4自动驾驶公司 ArgoAI 也被福特和大众汽车挥泪放弃,黯然落幕。即使是一些热门赛道,如生物科技,今年以来也有数家明星公司破产。曾经被资本追捧的独角兽们,到底怎么了?
The age of the
unicorn is over
独角兽时代落幕
Don’t expect
AI to bring it back
别指望它借人工智能之势回归
Business has never been better for America’s tech
giants. After slumping in 2022, the combined market value of Alphabet, Amazon,
Apple, Meta and Microsoft has surged by 70%, to over $10trn, since the start of
2023 amid the hype over artificial intelligence (AI).
The technology has also propelled others into the industry’s upper echelons.
美国科技巨头的生意从未如此红火。经过2022年的低迷后,在人工智能(AI)概念大热之下,自2023年初以来,Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta 和微软的总市值飙升70%,突破十万亿美元。
AI 技术还助推其他公司跻身行业前列。
On February 21st Nvidia, an AI-chip champion, reported that its sales rocketed by 265%, year on year, in the quarter to January. Its market value has risen from around $500bn a year ago to $1.7trn, making it America’s fifth-most-valuable firm. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, and other AI builders such as Anthropic have shot to fame, scooping up billions of dollars in funding.
2月21日,AI芯片领军者英伟达发布报告称,截至1月的财季其销售额同比飙升265%,市值从一年前的约5000亿美元上升至1.7万亿美元,成为美国市值第五高的公司。开发 ChatGPT 的 OpenAI 以及 Anthropic 等其他AI公司一举成名,收获数十亿美元融资。
Thousands of smaller AI firms have popped up, too.
Enough that a small Caribbean island called Anguilla, whose internet domain
suffix is “.ai”, now generates around a third of its government’s budget from licensing
it out, according to Rest of World, an online publication.
同时另有成千上万小型 AI 公司涌现。据线上科技媒体 Rest of World 报道,加勒比海上一个名叫安圭拉的小岛因为互联网域名后缀是“.ai”而受益,现在其政府预算约有三分之一来源于授权该域名的收入。
In the latest sign of madness returning to Silicon Valley Adam Neumann, the
ousted
founder of WeWork, an office-sharing firm that declared bankruptcy in November after years of losses, made a bid on February 5th to retake the reins of the firm.
办公室共享公司 WeWork 在多年亏损后于去年11月宣布破产,被赶下台的创始人亚当·诺伊曼于2月5日出价回购该公司——这是硅谷再陷疯狂的最新例证。
Yet it would be a mistake to think America’s startup
scene is returning to its former
exuberance
. For one, the reception from
WeWork’s management and creditors to Mr Neumann’s gambit has been
lukewarm
.
Venture-capital (VC) firms invested only $170bn in the country last year, down
by half from 2021, according to PitchBook, a research firm.
但要是就此以为美国创业圈正恢复昔日盛景,那就错了。首先,WeWork 管理层和债权人对诺伊曼的出价反应冷淡。研究公司 PitchBook 的数据显示,风投公司去年在美国仅投资1700亿美元,比2021年减少一半。
Bar a few high-profile exceptions, such as OpenAI, investors have been especially wary of signing cheques at lofty valuations. Throughout the 2010s the number of unicorns—private companies with valuations above $1bn—soared in America. Fully 344 of them were minted in 2021. Last year’s figure was 45.
除了 OpenAI 等少数几个吸人眼球的例外,投资者对于按高昂估值开出支票尤其谨慎。整个2010年代,美国独角兽公司(估值超过十亿美元的私人公司)的数量激增。在2021年的一年里就新增了足足344家,而去年的数字是45家。
The end of the era of cheap money is largely to blame.
In the go-go years, as investors raced to get a piece of the buzziest startups,
tech firms had little need to tap public markets for capital. Crossover
investors such as Tiger Global and Coatue, which operate in both public and
private markets, flooded into Silicon Valley.
廉价资金时代的终结是主要原因。在那些兴旺的年头,投资者争抢最热门创业公司的股份,科技公司几乎不需要从公开市场融资。老虎环球和 Coatue 等同时在公开市场和私人市场运作的交叉投资者涌入硅谷。
Dharmesh Thakker of Battery Ventures, a VC firm, recalls that founders could “raise money on a Zoom call”. In 2021 crossover investors accounted for over half of startup funding. They have since retreated, last year contributing less than a third.
巴特利风投公司的达梅什·塔克尔回忆说,创始人当时“通过 Zoom 电话就能融到资金”。2021年,交叉投资者为创业公司贡献了超过一半的融资。自那以后,他们的投资减少了,去年只占不到三分之一。
Now investors are mulling how to sell their stakes in
the unicorns of yesteryear. Most VC funds operate on a ten-year clock, backing
startups in the first five and cashing out in the second. With over 700
unicorns, at a combined valuation of $2.4trn, a sizeable amount of money is at
stake.
如今投资者正琢磨如何卖掉昔日买进的独角兽股份。大多数风投基金以十年为一个周期,前五年支持创业公司,后五年变现退出。目前美国有700多家独角兽,总估值达2.4万亿美元,其中牵扯的资金规模很可观。
The first way to exit is through an initial public
offering (IPO). Yet the IPO market remains at a standstill, with 83 VC-backed
listings in 2023, down from 309 in 2021. Many of those that listed last year,
including Instacart, a grocery-delivery business, and Klaviyo, a software firm,
are trading below their initial price.
第一条退出途径是 IPO。但 IPO 市场仍处于停滞状态,2023年只有83家由风投支持的公司上市,相比之下2021年有309家。食品杂货配送公司 Instacart 和软件公司 Klaviyo 等许多去年上市的公司目前股价都低于发行价。
Arm, a chip designer whose share price has more than doubled since its listing in September, is a rare exception. Firms that are planning for an IPO this year are often doing so at a reduced valuation: Reddit, a meme-sharing website, plans to list at $5bn, down from a private valuation of $10bn in 2021.
芯片设计公司安谋是个少有的例外,自去年9月上市以来,它的股价翻了一倍多。计划今年 IPO 的公司大多准备降低估值上市:网络梗分享网站 Reddit 计划以50亿美元的价格上市,低于2021年私人融资时100亿美元的估值。
The second path to an exit—a sale to a corporate
buyer—is also partly blocked. Only 698 VC-backed firms were purchased by
companies last year, according to PitchBook, down from 1,311 in 2021.
Trustbusters have kept big tech, once a serial acquirer, on the sidelines. Last
month Amazon abandoned its bid to acquire iRobot, a maker of
robo-vacuum-cleaners, following scrutiny from European regulators.
第二条退出途径是出售给其他公司,这条路同样不好走了。PitchBook 的数据显示,去年只有698家由风投支持的公司被其他公司收购,低于2021年的1311家。大型科技公司以往收购成风,如今受制于反垄断机构,改持观望态度。今年1月,在受到欧洲监管机构的审查后,亚马逊放弃收购扫地机器人制造商 iRobot。
Selling to another private investor—the third option—is
not too attractive, either. Private valuations in the so-called secondary
market are below those at the latest fundraising round for more than
four-fifths of unicorns, according to Caplight, a data provider. Discord, a
chat service popular with gamers, was most recently valued in the secondary
market at $6bn, down from a nearly $15bn valuation when it last raised funds in
2021.
第三条途径是出售给其他私人投资者,但也不太有吸引力。数据供应商 Caplight 指出,在所谓的二级市场上,超过五分之四的独角兽的私人收购估值低于上一轮融资时的估值。游戏玩家热捧的聊天软件 Discord 最近在二级市场上的估值为60亿美元,低于2021年最近一次融资时近150亿美元的估值。
Amid the drought, some unicorns have simply collapsed.
Convoy, a logistics startup that last raised funds in 2022 at a nearly $4bn
valuation, shut down in October. Veev, a unicorn dedicated to disrupting
home-building, closed its doors in November and is
liquidating
its assets.
Samir Kaji of Allocate, a firm that connects investors with VC funds, believes
that many unicorns will “quietly get acquired for parts”.
资金枯竭之下,一些独角兽直接就崩塌了。物流创业公司 Convoy 在去年10月倒闭,它上一次融资是在2022年,当时估值近40亿美元。致力颠覆住宅建设的独角兽 Veev 于11月关门,正在清算资产。为投资者和风投基金牵线搭桥的公司 Allocate 的萨米尔·卡吉认为,许多独角兽公司将“悄无声息地被分割收购”。
重难点词汇
:
oust
[a
ʊ
st] v. 撤职;驱逐;剥夺;撤销
exuberance
[
ɪ