谢谢关注缓慢思考！
Michael Mauboussin是我比较喜欢的投资人，也是很多本书的作者，除了这本More Than You Know，还有Think Twice， Success Equation等。 他以前是Credit Suisse的首席投资官，写过很多不错文章，有兴趣可以去看看。本文是对More Than You Know一书的采访，核心关键词是：多学科和心理学。你没有发现芒格的影子吗？ Enjoy！
Question:
More Than You Know
comes at the world of investing from a very different perspective than the average book. Can these nonconventional ideas really help an investor succeed?
问："More Than You Know"这本书看待投资的角度和其他普通书籍截然不同。 这些非传统观念能够真正帮助投资者获得成功吗？
Michael Mauboussin:
This book celebrates the notion that a multidisciplinary approach is best for solving complex problems, including those in investing. Too much of our learning narrows perspective. We can gain great insight by learning the important ideas from various disciplines and appropriately applying them to investing. Almost everything you can read—from science to literature to psychology—can make you a better investor if you’re willing to make connections.
Michael Mauboussin：这本书提倡的观点是，多学科方法最适合解决复杂问题，包括投资方面的问题。我们很多学习缩窄了我们视野。通过学习各个学科的重要思想，并将其适当应用于投资，我们可以获得巨大的洞察力。所有你可以阅读的东西 - 从科学到文学到心理学 - 都可以使你成为更好的投资者， 只要你愿意建立彼此的联系。
Here’s a quick example: Professor Robert Sapolsky’s book about stress,
Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers
, notes that most animals get stress from physical risks. Humans, on the other hand, now get most of their stress from psychological factors. With animals, stress dissipates when the physical threat passes. Humans, on the other hand, are often chronically stressed because the psychological issues don’t go away. This perpetual stress influences our abilities and behavior—including, of course, how we run investment portfolios.
这里有一个简单的例子：Robert Sapolsky教授关于压力的书“为什么斑马不得溃疡”指出，大多数动物的压力都来自于身体的风险。但是，人类不同，人类现在从心理因素中获得了大部分压力。对于动物来说，当物理威胁消失了，压力就会消散。对人类而言， 压力常常是长期的，因为心理问题不会消失。这种永久性的压力会影响我们的能力和行为 - 当然包括我们如何管理投资组合
Q: Is this book only for investors, or would non-investor types enjoy it as well?
问：这本书只针对投资者，还是非投资者也会喜欢它？
MM:
My target audience is investors. That said, I think anyone who is intellectually curious and who makes decisions will find this book fun and useful. For example, after reading “Everything I Need to Know I Learned at a Tupperware Party,” my wife now recognizes why it is so hard to go to a Tupperware party and not buy lots of useless stuff. The essay explores the tendencies of human behavior, explored by Professor Robert Cialdini, that get people to say yes. As it turns out, Tupperware parties take advantage of four of the six tendencies—reciprocity, social validation, commitment, and liking—creating a powerful impetus to buy. Knowing why you are going to feel compelled to buy is pretty handy knowledge.
MM：我的目标受众是投资者。尽管如此，我认为任何对知识好奇的人和那些需要做决策的人也会发现这本书很有趣也很有用。例如，读完“我需要知道的关于特百惠直销会的一切”后，我的妻子现在知道为什么去参加特百惠而不拿回来一堆没用的东西是多么的困难。这篇文章探讨了Robert Cialdini教授研究的各种让人说“yes”的行为倾向。事实证明，特百惠直销会利用了六个行为倾向中的四个 - 互惠，社交认同，承诺和喜欢 - 来创造强大的购买动力。了解你为什么会被迫购买是非常容易的知识。
Q: This book has a whole section on psychology. Why is that so important for decision making in markets?
问：本书有很多关于心理学的内容。为什么这对在市场上做决策非常重要？
MM:
Even though psychology is self-evidently important for the stock market, business schools didn’t teach students anything about it until fairly recently. In the name of analytical convenience, most finance models treat investors as rational and all-knowing. All you have to do is pay attention to your own thoughts and decisions for a little while to recognize that that assumption is wildly off the mark. This book not only considers individual cognitive pitfalls—the errors you and I routinely make—but also looks at the wisdom (and whims) that result from collective behavior.
MM：尽管心理学对股票市场来说显然非常重要，但商学院直到最近才向学生教授有关它的知识。为了便于分析，大多数金融模型都将投资者视为理性的和全知的。你花点时间观察自己的想法和决定，你就会发现这种假设和实际不符。本书不仅考察了个人认知缺陷 - 比如你和我经常犯的错误 - 还考察了集体行为导致的缺陷。
Q: If the multidisciplinary approach is so valuable, why don’t all investors use it?
问：如果多学科方法如此宝贵，为什么不是所有投资者都使用它？
MM:
The multidisciplinary approach requires lots of time and an appropriate temperament. You have to allocate a lot of time to reading and learning across various disciplines, with no clear assurance that what you learn will be directly applicable to investing—at least not immediately. Also important is temperament and a willingness to make connections or draw analogies across apparently disparate topics. Most investors get caught up in busy work such as excessive trading or trying to absorb the torrent of information that the financial community produces.
MM：多学科方法需要大量时间和适当的性格。你必须分配很多时间来阅读和学习各个学科，然而这并不能明确保证你学到的东西可以直接适用于投资 - 至少不会立即。同样重要的是性格和意愿，喜欢在不同的学科间建立联系或者做类比。大多数投资者都忙于繁忙的工作，如过度交易或试图吸收金融界产生的信息洪流。
Q: The book stresses the importance of the investment process over outcome. Aren’t outcomes the real bottom line?
问：本书强调投资流程甚于结果的重要性。结果不是真正的底线吗？
MM:
Over time, outcomes are what matters. Outcomes are objective and measurable. The real question is: What’s the best way to assure satisfactory long-term outcomes?
MM：随着时间的推移，结果是重要的。成果是客观和可衡量的。真正的问题是：确保令人满意的长期结果的最佳方式是什么？
Investing is a probabilistic exercise. In any probabilistic field, you have to recognize that even great decisions won’t work out all of the time, and sometimes poor decisions will work out well. It’s like sitting on a seventeen at the blackjack table—if you ask for a hit, you may get a four and win the round. But probabilistically, that’s a bad move. Do it enough and you’re assured of a loss. Judging the virtue of the hit based on a one-time outcome clearly doesn’t make sense.
投资是一个概率的游戏。在任何概率领域，你必须认识到，即使是伟大的决定也不会在任何时候都有好结果，有时候糟糕的决定也会有好的结果。这就像坐在德州扑克桌上拿着十七点 - 如果你要求一张牌，你可能会得到一个四，并赢得一轮。但概率上说，这是一个不好的决定。如果经常这么做，你肯定会输钱。根据一次性结果判断要牌的这一举动的价值显然没有意义。
What’s also interesting is that the elite performers in all probabilistic fields— gamblers, sports team managers, handicappers—all think in terms of process versus outcome. So while our society may be conditioned to focus on outcomes, an emphasis on process makes the most sense for the long haul.
另外有趣的是，所有概率领域的精英玩家 - 赌徒，运动队经理人，残疾人 - 都从流程而不是结果的角度来思考。因此，尽管我们的社会可能会习惯以结果为重，但对流程的重视长远来说是最有意义的。
Q: You suggest that you can’t understand markets by tuning into investment experts. Why not?
问：你建议不能听从投资专家来了解市场。为什么不行？
MM:
Market prices represent an aggregation of a lot of information from many diverse investors. The interaction of investors is the key, and it assures that the market knows much more than any particular individual.
MM：市场价格是来自许多不同投资者的大量信息的集合。投资者的互动是关键，它确保市场比任何特定的个人都知道得多。
I often offer the example of an ant colony. Study the colony, and you’ll find it’s robust, adaptive, and has a life cycle. The colony is almost like an organism itself. But then zoom in on an individual ant. Ants operate with local information and local interaction. They have no clue what’s going on at the colony level, yet the interaction of the ants is what makes the colony work.
我经常提供蚁群的例子。研究蚁群，你会发现它是强大的，适应性的，并有一个生命周期。蚁群几乎就像一个有机体本身。但是，放大某一只蚂蚁。蚂蚁通过当地信息和当地互动进行工作。他们不知道蚁群层面发生了什么，但蚂蚁的相互作用是使蚁群正常运转的原因。
You’d never dream of interviewing an ant to understand the colony. Likewise, it’s important to recognize that investment experts aren’t much better off than ants. They come with their own perceptions and biases. If you want to understand the market, look at the market itself.
你永远不会想采访一只蚂蚁来理解蚁群。同样，重要的是要认识到投资专家并不比蚂蚁好得多。他们带着自己的看法和偏见。如果你想了解市场，看看市场本身。
Q: Behavioral finance has become very popular in recent years. You advocate some skepticism. Why?
问：行为金融学近年来变得非常流行。你提倡要抱有一些怀疑。为什么？
