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美联储理事沃勒：
不排除3月降息的可能
，如果数据配合，今年或降息3-4次
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经济观察报称万科总裁祝九胜被带走，后者凌晨更新朋友圈
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美国新能源汽车销量首次占五分之一，特斯拉市场份额下滑
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美债涨，10年期美债收益率一度跌破4.6%，中债震荡
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日评
今日美债收益率走出三波小跌势，
零售数据/首申公布后第一波下行
，
沃勒鸽派论调后第二波下行
，贝森特
听证会问答过程中第三波下行
（详见笔记）。
笔者聆听了90多分钟贝森特的听证会，以下为一些笔记（有删节，请在C-span或油管浏览原视频与实录）
If we do not renew and extent, then we will be facing an
economic calamity
and as always with financial instability.
We call it
animal spirits
, and I think we are seeing animal spirits. A nascent move up,
but permanency and forward guidance gives people certainty
. We get capital and investment. We get hiring. We get real wages.
如果我们不延续现有政策，我们将面临一场经济灾难，并如以往一样伴随金融动荡。
我们称之为
“动物精神”
，我认为我们正在(因TCJA)见证这种“动物精神”的复苏。市场正在初步回暖，但
只有持久的政策和前瞻性的指引才能给人们带来确定性
，才能带来资本投入、投资增长、就业机会增加和实际工资的提高。
Traditionally, we see that… if we were to say, use a number that has been thrown around in the press of 10%,
then traditionally the currency appreciates by 4%, so the 10% is not passed through
. Then we have various elasticities, consumer preferences may change. And finally, foreign manufacturers, especially China...
they will continue cutting prices to maintain market share.
President Trump hasn't taken office yet, but if confirmed, I look forward to working with him on various strategies, some that could be specifically aimed
toward carbon
, as you say, others that could be aimed toward unfair trade practices, unfair financing practices.
You know, I think you and the American people should think about tariffs in three ways under the Trump administration.
One will be for remedying
... unfair trade practices... two,
maybe for a more generalized tariff as a revenue raiser
... and three, President Trump... has added a third use of tariffs... as a skilled negotiator...
tariffs can be used for negotiations.
通常来说，假设媒体报道的10%关税落地，
传统上来说，本币会升值4%
，因此这10%的关税并不会完全转嫁到消费者身上。此外，我们还要考虑各种价格弹性，消费者的偏好也可能发生变化。最后，外国制造商，尤其是中国的制造商，会持续降低价格以维持市场份额。
特朗普总统尚未就职，但如果我的任命获得确认，我期待与他合作制定各种战略，其中一些可能专门针对碳排放问题，正如您提到的，另一些则可能针对不公平贸易行为和不公平融资行为。
我认为，美国人民应该从三个方面理解特朗普政府的关税政策：
第一，关税可以用来纠正不公平贸易行为；第二，可以将关税普遍化，作为一种增加政府收入的途径；第三，特朗普总统增加了关税的第三种用途——作为一名谈判高手，他可以利用关税作为谈判的筹码
。
China will build 100 new coal plants this year.
There is not a clean energy race. There is an energy race.
中国今年将新建100座燃煤电厂。
这与其说是一场清洁能源竞赛，不如说是一场能源竞赛。
And as part of his strategy to end the Ukraine war, that I will be 100% on board for taking sanctions up, especially on the Russian oil majors to levels that would
bring the Russian Federation to the table
.
I believe that the sanctions were not fulsome enough. I believe that... the previous administration was worried about raising US energy prices during an election season.
作为结束乌克兰战争战略的一部分，我将全力支持加大对俄罗斯的制裁力度，
尤其是对俄罗斯主要石油公司的制裁，直到施压促使俄罗斯联邦回到谈判桌前。
我认为目前的制裁力度不足。我认为上届政府担心在选举期间提高美国能源价格。
That historically for the past 40 or 50 years revenues, federal government revenues have averaged about 17 to 17.5% of GDP, and spending has been slightly over that, leading us
to a 3.5% budget deficit
, which is manageable because we have roughly 3.8% nominal growth, 1.8% real growth, 2% inflation.
The federal government has a significant
spending problem
, driving deficits that have averaged a historically high 7% of GDP during the past four years. We must work to get our fiscal house in order and adjust federal domestic discretionary spending that has grown by an astonishing 40% over the past four years.
Productive investment that grows the economy must be prioritized
over wasteful spending that drives inflation.
We do not have a revenue problem in the United States of America.
We have a spending problem.
过去四五十年来，联邦政府的收入平均约占GDP的17%到17.5%，而支出略高于这一水平，
