500篇经典文献（1）
1、The Market for “Lemons”: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
1970, 84(3):488-500
George A. Akerlof
,
McCourt School of Public Policy
This paper relates quality and uncertainty. The existence of goods of many grades poses interesting and important problems for the theory of markets. On the one hand, the interaction of quality differences and uncertainty may explain important institutions of the labor market. On the other hand, this paper presents a struggling attempt to give structure to the statement: "Business in under-developed countries is difficult"; in particular, a structure is given for determining the economic costs of dishonesty. Additional applications of the theory include comments on the structure of money markets, on the notion of "insurability," on the liquidity of durables, and on brand-name goods.
原文链接：
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1879431
2、The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities
Journal of Political Economy,
1973, 81(3):637-654
Fischer Black,
University of Chicago
Myron Scholes,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
If options are correctly priced in the market, it should not be possible to make sure profits by creating portfolios of long and short positions in options and their underlying stocks. Using this principle, a theoretical valuation formula for options is derived. Since almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as combinations of options, the formula and the analysis that led to it are also applicable to corporate liabilities such as common stock, corporate bonds, and warrants. In particular, the formula can be used to derive the discount that should be applied to a corporate bond because of the possibility of default.
原文链接：
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1831029
3、Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Econometrica,
1979, 47(2):263-292
Daniel Kahneman,
University of California, Berkeley
Amos Tversky
,
Stanford University
This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low probabilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling.
原文链接：
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914185
