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興業科技: 理想(核心客戶)超預期,24業績表現可期

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-03-11 21:35

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Xingye Leather Technology

(002674 CH)


理想(核心客戶)超預期,24業績表現可期


Key customer Li Auto’s results outperform expectations, raising hopes of a strong 2024E ahead for Xingye

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

宏興皮革爲理想L7、L8、L9內飾皮革供應商,伴隨理想L系列交付量增長迎來增量訂單。


理想23Q4營收同增136%,24Q1展望創同期新高,或主要系24年款L7/8/9新款將在3月推出面市支持,同時伴隨售價較低的L6將在4月上市降低購車門檻,交付量有望再創新高。2023年11月,理想L系列累計交付量突破35萬輛。


Supplier to Li Auto’s L7, L8, L9 models; order upticks on further L-series launches

Xingye’s automaker customer Li Auto’s 23Q4 revenue spiked 136% yoy and its 24Q1E guidance sets a new high; likely because it will launch new L7, 8 and 9 models for 2024 in March. With the lower-priced L6 model to launch in April, the lower price threshold expands the market and could lead to record delivery volumes. The L-series surpassed delivery of 350,000 cars cumulatively as of November 2023.


此外,宏興攜手頭部新能源汽車品牌,業務規模持續增長。 目前的主要客戶有理想汽車、蔚來汽車、問界汽車、哪吒汽車等國產新能源廠企,以及馬自達、吉利等傳統汽車品牌。未來宏興將持續加強與原有客戶的合作,積極競標原有客戶的新車型,同時也將積極開拓新客戶,如比亞迪、廣汽、上汽、極氪等品牌。


Business scale rises in tandem with premium customers’ performance trends

Subsidiary Hongxing Leather’s partnerships with leading new energy vehicle (NEV) brands continue to lift its business scale. The main customers include Chinese NEV automakers Li Auto, NIO, AITO and Nezha, as well as traditional brands like Mazda and Geely. Hongxing intends to strengthen ties with current customers and make bids for their new models, as well as add new customers like BYD, GAC, SAIC and Zeekr.


綁定優質客戶業績兌現,業務規模持續增長

汽車內飾用皮革供應商驗證週期長,審覈門檻高,客戶粘性強。宏興依靠公司製造平臺及原材料資源優勢迅速實現擴產,保證品質/交期穩定。


Suppliers of automotive leather interiors face long validation cycles, and they typically have high audit thresholds and deeply sticky customers. Hongxing leverages Xingye’s manufacturing platform and raw material resource advantages to expand production quickly, and provide stable quality and deliveries.


鞋包帶主業需求復甦,寶泰業務拓展積極盈利

終端消費復甦,下游客戶的採購積極性提升,以及供應端集中度的提升,帶動公司鞋包帶皮革銷量的增長。另一方面,新產品研發緊跟市場需求,產品品類齊全,客戶渠道優質,提振主業毛利率。目前公司積極佈局海外市場,與海外品牌建立合作進入其供應商系統,同時也與品牌加工廠建立聯繫,爲後續海外訂單的回暖提前做準備。


公司通過控股二級子公司福建寶泰成功切入二層皮革領域以及膠原蛋白原材領域,後續隨着福建寶泰的業務拓展,有望對公司的盈利產生積極的作用。


Core demand recovers in shoes, bags, belts; Baotai growth boosts Xingye’s profit

Industry catalysts: sales of the company’s leather shoes and bags have grown with a recovery in end-market consumption, rising purchase willingness by downstream customers and increasing supply market concentration. The company has firmed core business gross margins by keeping new product R&D in close correlation with market demand trends and a full range of product categories, along with premium customer channels. Xingye is building up its global markets by establishing ties with foreign brands and entering their supplier networks, while keeping contact with OEM brands ahead of a future pick-up in foreign orders.


Baotai: Xingye entered the split leather and collagen raw material markets by way of its secondary subsidiary Fujian Baotai Leather. We expect Xingye’s profitability will improve in the impact of Baotai’s business expansion.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

公司傳統主業銷量穩步增長,同時投資設立福建寶泰,成功切入二層皮革領域以及膠原蛋白原材領域。新能源汽車銷量增長,帶動汽車內飾用皮革需求,看好宏興持續放量。考慮到鞋包帶主業需求復甦及寶泰釋放利潤仍需時間,我們預計公司23-25年收入分別爲27/34/43億,歸母淨利分別爲2/2.7/3.4億(前值爲2.3/3.2/4.4億),EPS分別0.7/0.9/1.2元/股(前值爲0.8/1.1/1.5元/股),對應PE分別爲15/12/9X。


Valuation and risks

Xingye’s core traditional business continues to post sales growth, while it invested into establishing Baotai, which facilitated entry to new markets for split leather and collagen raw materials. We believe Hongxing will maintain a sales uptrend as rising NEV sales drives automotive leather interior demand. Our estimates for Xingye consider that Baotai’s sales are still in a recovery phase and a demand pick-up in the core business of shoes, bags and belts would add incremental profits. Hence, we forecast Xingye will generate revenue of RMB2.7bn/3.4bn/4.3bn in 2023/24/25E, while we lower our net profit to RMB200m/270m/340m (previously RMB230m/320m/440m). Our EPS moderates to RMB0.70/0.90/1.20 (previously RMB0.80/1.10/1.50), with PE at 15x/12x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 環保政策的風險;產品創新與技術進步的風險;主要原材料價格波動的風險;匯率風險;流行趨勢變化致使天然皮革在鞋面用皮革使用量減少的風險等。


Risks include: adverse environmental protection policies; slower-than-expected product innovation and technological progress; major raw materials’ price volatility; adverse FX price trends; declining use of natural leather in shoe uppers on changes in fashion trends.



Email: [email protected]

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