截至2024年2月17日，春節檔實現票房80.51億元，刷新歷史記錄。
根據初步統計，2024年春節檔期間（2月10日-2月17日）累計實現票房80.51億元，較2023年同期的67.65億元同比+19.01%，較2021年同期的78.42億元同比+2.67%。
累計觀影人次1.63億，創歷史新高，春節檔期間平均票價49.1元。我們認爲，春節檔票房創歷史新高的原因在於：1）今年春節檔放映時間從初一持續至初八，較往年多出2天，且包含情人節，按前6日統計，今年春節檔累計票房64.65億元，略低於去年同期。2）春節檔頭部新片雖然預售不及去年同期影片，但通過口碑質量及熱點營銷，疊加低票價優勢拉動觀影人數回升，票房超出預期。根據貓眼專業版預測，頭部影片《熱辣滾燙》、《飛馳人生2》、《第二十條》和《熊出沒：逆轉時空》預計實現票房38.84/33.98/24.30/20.59億元，整體票房高於媒體預測。
All-time high for CNY: China film industry reels in RMB8.05bn box-office in 2024
The Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday period this year raked in box-office takings of RMB8.05bn, up 19.01% yoy (RMB6.77bn in 2023) and up 2.67% from CNY 2021 (RMB7.84bn), based on preliminary data as of 17 Feb 2024. Cumulative moviegoers reached a peak of 163m and the average ticket price was RMB49.10. We attribute the record-breaking performance to these factors:
•2 days longer:
the CNY holiday screenings in 2024 lasted from the lunar new year first day to eighth day, two days longer than in previous years, as they encompassed Valentine’s Day. Data from the first six days showed a cumulative box office of RMB6.47bn, a slight dip yoy.
•More moviegoers:
pre-sales of the major new films had not performed as well yoy. However, word-of-mouth and marketing promotions, including low ticket prices, drove a rebound in moviegoer numbers, such that China’s total box-office in the period exceeded expectations. Maoyan Pro Edition’s higher-than-other-media forecasts had pegged major films YOLO/ Pegasus 2/ Article 20/ Boonie Bears: Time Twist as collecting RMB3.88bn/3.40bn/2.43bn/2.06bn at the box office.
供給端-類型：影片數量基本持平，題材類型以喜劇爲主，細分類型多樣。
2024年春節檔共有9部影片定檔，其中8部於大年初一上映，數量上較往年基本持平。題材類型方面，9部影片中6部爲喜劇電影，但細分類型各不相同。《熱辣滾燙》主打女性勵志，由賈玲自導自演，根據貓眼數據專業版 “想看數據”，女性“想看”人數佔比77.4%；《飛馳人生2》以賽車爲主題，由沈騰主演；《第二十條》聚焦正當防衛，以喜劇結構沉重話題；《熊出沒：逆轉時空》作爲系列動畫電影，主要面向親子家庭消費者；《紅毯先生》是一部極簡主義荒誕喜劇，由劉德華主演，主題爲批判娛樂圈現狀。
Supply: strong content-driven headliners with mostly comedies in 2024 line-up
Comedy dominated 2024 genres:
the line-up this year has nine films, about the same as in previous years, of which eight premiered on the first day of CNY, and six are comedies with the rest presenting a variety of subgenres. The headliners include:
•YOLO
has an inspirational female theme and is directed by Jia Ling, who also stars in the film. Maoyan data shows that 77.4% of those who added the film to their Want to Watch list were women.
•Pegasus 2
is about racing and stars Shen Teng.
•Article 20
filters the heavy topic of justifiable legal defense through a comedic lens.
•Boonie Bears:
Time Twist, the latest of a Chinese animation hit series about forest animals, targets a parent-children audience.
•The Movie Emperor,
a minimalist absurdist comedy starring Andy Lau, takes a critical look at the entertainment industry.
供給端-票房：頭部影片競爭激烈，集中度提升，內容質量優於往年同期。
根據貓眼專業版，2019-2024年（除2020年）Top4影片票房佔比分別爲86.12%/91.82%/85.37%/88.95%/97.65%，頭部影片競爭加劇。2024年春節檔除頭部4部影片外，其餘5部影片票房均不足1億元，由於競爭激烈，《我們一起搖太陽》、《紅毯先生》、《黃貔：天降財神貓》和《八戒之天蓬下界》相繼退出春節檔。頭部影片《熱辣滾燙》、《飛馳人生2》、《熊出沒：逆轉時空》和《第二十條》分別實現票房27.24/24.04/13.92/13.42億元，票房佔比33.83%/29.86%/17.29%/16.67%。內容質量方面， 2019-2024年（除2020年）Top4影片加權豆瓣評分分別爲7.0/6.3/6.9/7.4/7.6，我們認爲，優質內容是推動影視板塊復甦的關鍵驅動之一，高口碑影片將吸引更多觀影人羣進入影院。
Content pulled up 2024 vs previous years:
competition was especially intense this year, with more headline films and better content than in previous years’ CNY releases. Yearly trends reflect the intense competition posed by headline films: the top four films collectively accounted for 86.12%/ 91.82%/ 85.37%/ 88.95%/ 97.65% of box-office takings across China at CNY 2019/21/22/23/24 (excluding Covid-hit 2020), according to Maoyan. Reflecting the rise in quality content over the years, the top four films in 2019/ 21/ 22/ 23/ 24 (excluding 2020) had weighted Douban scores of 7.0/ 6.3/ 6.9/ 7.4/ 7.6.
CNY 2024:
this year’s top four productions, YOLO/ Pegasus 2/ Boonie Bears: Time Twist/ Article 20 generated box-office takings of RMB2.72bn/2.40bn/1.39bn/1.34bn, accounting for 33.83%/ 29.86%/ 17.29%/ 16.67% of China’s box-office receipts. The remaining five films in the CNY line-up presented a stark contrast with box-office takings of each less than RMB100m. The competitive heat led to their subsequent withdrawal from CNY screening one after another: Viva La Vida, The Movie Emperor, God of Money and Bajie.
Our take:
we believe quality content to be a major driver of the film and TV industry recovery, and highly-reputed films are the crowd-pullers at movie theaters.
需求端：高質量供給刺激觀影需求，下沉市場票房佔比擴大。
我們認爲，豐富的題材以及高質量的內容是刺激消費者需求的核心驅動力，也是此次春節檔觀影人數創歷史新高的關鍵。2024年春節檔觀影人次達1.63億，突破歷史新高，若調整可比口徑（除今年外之前春節檔僅爲6天），今年按前6日統計，觀影人次達1.30億，略高於去年春節檔的1.29億，但仍低於2021年的1.60億。前6日平均票價49.6元，低於去年同期的52.3元， 2019-2024年，平均票價CAGR爲2.13%。此外，春節檔電影市場下沉趨勢明顯，根據中國電影報，三四線城市份額超過54%，高於去年同期的50%，電影受衆持續下沉。
Demand: quality supply pulls moviegoers; rising lower-tier-city box-office takings
Moviegoing catalysts:
we reckon that meaningful themes and quality content are key demand catalysts that stimulate consumer demand, as well as factors that pull record numbers of moviegoers at CNY. This year’s CNY holiday set a new record of 163m moviegoers. Adjusted to six days (to be on par with the CNY holiday in previous years), CNY 2024 would have had 130m moviegoers, slightly above the 129m last year, but lower than the 160m in 2021.
Ticket prices
averaged RMB49.60 over the first six days of CNY this year, lower than the RMB52.30 last year. The yearly trend shows ticket prices averaged a CAGR of 2.13% from 2019 to 2024.
Rising lower-tier-city markets:
the CNY film market is showing a trend shift toward the lower-tier city markets. The market share of third and fourth-tier cities combined rose above 54% at CNY 2024, higher than the 50% last year, according to China Film News.
