事件：
上海電影於2024年10月30日披露2024年第三季度報告。2024年三季度，公司實現營業收入1.79億元，同比下滑30.52%%；歸母淨利潤0.38億元，扣非歸母淨利潤0.01億元。2024年前三季度，公司實現營業收入5.60億元，同比下滑11.07%；歸母淨利潤1.07億元，同比下滑13.74%；扣非歸母淨利潤0.44億元，同比下滑33.76%。公司2024年中期利潤分配預案擬每10股派0.96元（含稅），合計派發現金紅利4303萬元，佔2024年前三季度歸母淨利潤的40.06%。
Q3E revenue fell 31%; 24M9E net profit down 14%; RMB0.96 interim dividend
24Q3E:
Shanghai Film Company (SFC) released unaudited 24Q3E results on 30 Oct with revenue at RMB179m, down 30.52% yoy; net profit at RMB38m; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB1m.
24Q1-3E:
revenue amounted to RMB560m over the first 3 quarters, down 11.07% yoy; with net profit at RMB107m, down 13.74% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB44m, down 33.76% yoy.
Interim dividend:
the company’s interim profit distribution plan proposes a cash dividend of RMB0.96 (tax included) per 10 shares, amounting to a total payout of RMB43.03m, which is 40.06% of 24Q1-3 net profit.
電影主業受大盤影響短期承壓，經濟刺激有望改善公司Q4經營情況。
根據燈塔專業版數據，截至2024年9月底，全國電影總票房347.71億元，同比下降23.8%，較2021—2023年同期平均值（353.88億元）減少1.7%，國內電影市場整體尚未完全恢復到疫情前的水平，或系優質影片供給不足。分板塊來看，1）院線業務：2024年前三季度，公司聯和院線累計實現票房26.67億元，同比下滑28.4%；市佔率為7.67%，同比下滑0.49pct。2）影院業務：2024年前三季度，公司直營影院累計實現票房3.66億元，同比下滑29.6%，市佔率為1.05%，同比下滑0.09pct。3）內容製作方面，《愛情神話》平行篇《好東西》定檔11月22日，《拼桌》等項目有望於後續陸續上映。10月受益於政策利好陸續落地，電影市場數據呈邊際改善跡象。根據燈塔專業版數據，10月全國電影總票房實現36.25億元，同比降幅收窄至2.1%。其中，上海市場實現票房1.99億元，同比提升15.7%，關注此輪經濟刺激對公司四季度經營情況的改善。
Film market under macro pressures; policy aids could help Q4E operations
Total box-office receipts across China amounted to RMB34.77bn in 24Q1-3, down 23.8% yoy and down 1.7% from the 3-year average of RMB35.39bn in Q1-3 during 2021-23, according to data from taopiaopiao.com. The Chinese film market has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, which we attribute to an insufficient supply of quality films.
We look at key business segments:
•Film distribution:
the company’s United Cinemas generated box-office receipts of RMB2.67bn over 24Q1-3, down 28.4% yoy. Its market share dipped 0.49ppt yoy to 7.67% in the period.
•Cinema chains:
SFC’s directly-operated cinema business generated box-office takings of RMB366m in 24Q1-3, down 29.6% yoy, with its market share dipping 0.09ppt to 1.05%.
•Content productions:
Her Story, a parallel production to the 2021 Myth of Love, is scheduled for release on 22 Nov 2024. Other projects in the pipeline for future releases include A Table for Two.
Policy stimulus:
benefiting from the rollout of favorable policies, film market data marginally improved in October. Data from taopiaopiao.com shows China’s box-office receipts at RMB3.63bn in October, as the yoy decline trend softened to 2.1%. Of this, the Shanghai market raked in box-office receipts of RMB199m, up 15.7% yoy. We would keep an eye on improvements in SFC’s operating data in Q4E given this round of economic stimulus.
大IP開發業務有序推進，有望助力經營業績增長。
2024年上半年，上影元實現營業收入0.64億元，淨利潤為0.21億元。上海國際電影節期間，上影元亮相首個自主開發的線下演藝產品《奇譚遊樂“元”上影IP奇趣派對》，同步官宣大電影《小妖怪的夏天：從前有座浪浪山》定檔2025年暑期檔，《中國奇譚》第二季預計2025年上線，“奇譚宇宙”進一步豐富。IP授權聯名合作方面，1）商業授權：2024年上半年，公司與光明乳業、星巴克、必勝客、寶馬、瑞幸、古茗、華萊士、中國郵政、京東、雀巢等知名品牌在食住行玩等領域展開IP授權聯名合作。並於10月開啟與摩比世界（德國最大玩具生產商旗下品牌）的深度合作，有望共同進行全球市場的開拓。2）遊戲合作：2024年上半年，公司與《光遇》《決戰平安京》《永劫無間》《超能世界》《時光旅行社》《球球英雄》等多款多類型遊戲開展聯動，總傳播曝光量超過30億。並與愷英網絡股份有限公司達成戰略合作後，雙方將共同推出首個IP合作項目《黑貓警長》授權遊戲。
Major IPs undergoing development; gearing up to release incremental profits
Film and TV pipeline:
SFC’s subsidiary Shanghai Film Infinity (SFI) generated revenue of RMB64m and net profit of RMB21m in 24H1. At this year’s Shanghai International Film Festival in June, SFI unveiled a major offline market project as well as film releases in the pipeline:
•Folktales Park: Shanghai Film IP Fun Party: SFI unveils its first independently developed performance arts show for the offline market.
•Nobody: Lang Lang Ago: the new film continues the story of Piggy monster and Lang Lang Hill and is slated for release in the summer of 2025.
•Yao-Chinese Folktales 2: this extension to the well-received first anime series is set to be released in 2025.
Commercial IP franchises:
•24H1:
SFC launched a slew of IP licensing projects and co-branding collaborations in diverse markets such as food, accommodation, transportation and entertainment. Its partners included well-known brands Bright Dairy, Starbucks, Pizza Hut, BMW, Luckin Coffee, Gu Ming, Wallace, China Post, JD.com and Nestlé.
•October 2024:
it established deep ties with Playmobil, Germany’s largest toy manufacturer, to jointly explore the global market.
Gaming collaborations:
SFC cinched collaborations with games across multiple genres in 24H1, including Sky: Children of the Light, Onmyoji Arena, Naraka: Bladepoint, Super World, Time Voyager and Orb Master, where total target audience exposure could exceed 3bn views. Under its strategic cooperation with Kingnet Network, both parties will co-launch their first project, an IP mobile game, Black Cat Sheriff, which will feature tower defense gameplay.
積極推進AI+IP 助推內容創制。
2024年2 月，公司發佈全新“iNEW”戰略，積極推進IP與互動影遊、AI、MR產業等新興科技娛樂領域領先企業的合作。年初至今先後與Rokid、生成式AI平臺Tiamat、國內頭部AI公司上海階躍星辰智能科技有限公司等展開合作。
AI-driven IP content creation:
the company launched its iNEW strategy in February 2024, which drives IP collaborations with leading companies in emerging technology and entertainment fields like interactive film and games, and the artificial intelligence and mixed reality markets. Collaborations it has formed this year include those with Rokid, generative AI platform Tiamat and leading Chinese AI player Shanghai Jieyue Star Intelligent Technology.
