TOP5及TOP刊上“Retirment”文章合集, RDD和DID方法让你大显身手

接着“很遗憾, 该学术话题“群发失败”，别四处寻找了，以下是2010至2024年间TOP5刊上发表的关于retirement主题的论文汇总。

随着China延迟retirement政策的实施，我们有机会深入了解retirement对经济行为的影响，以及它可能带来的各种潜在效应。例如，通过断点回归设计（RDD）研究retirement如何影响消费、幸福感、健康和支出等方面。

在这个研究框架中，retirement政策（X变量）保持不变，而研究的焦点（Y变量）则可以多样化，这类似于将空气污染作为X变量，探索其对各种不同事物的潜在影响。

当然，这一突然的冲击也是一个绝好的实验，可以做DID。

“1.RDD断点回归, Stata程序百科全书式的宝典"，“2.最强断点回归RDD方法资料主页！提供replication数据, 编写和注释完整的codes！”，“3.政策评估里的断点回归设计RDD是什么, 如何做？如何简单的理解？”，“4.复现经典RDD断点回归设计文献保姆级教程, 直接上手！” "5.她极度近视, 却凭该TOP5文掌控着关于RDD使用的话语权！"

其他TOP经济学刊上关于Retirement话题的最新文章汇总如下：

1️⃣Rabaté, S., et al. (2024). "Increasing the Retirement Age: Policy Effects and Underlying Mechanisms." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16(1): 259-291.

2️⃣Bi, H. and S. Zubairy (2023). "Public Pension Reforms and Retirement Decisions: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 15(4): 142-182.

3️⃣Clark, A. E. and R. Zhu (2024). "Taking Back Control? Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Retirement on Locus of Control." The Economic Journal 134(660): 1465-1493. We use Australian panel data to examine the impact of retirement on individual locus of control, a socio-emotional skill with substantial explanatory power for a broad range of life outcomes. Exploiting the eligibility age for the Australian Age Pension, we find that retirement leads to increased internal locus of control. This greater internal control explains around one-third and one-fifth of the positive effects of retirement on health and subjective well-being, respectively. We also show that locus of control is much more malleable at retirement than the other socio-emotional skills of the Big-Five personality traits, risk and time preferences, and trust.

4️⃣Deshpande, M., et al. (2024). "How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the United States?" The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(2): 370-383.

We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit-claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement, and we find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers’ responses to the FRA.

5️⃣Fan, X., et al. (2023). "Estimation of a Life-Cycle Model with Human Capital, Labor Supply, and Retirement." Journal of Political Economy 132(1): 48-95.

We estimate a life-cycle model of consumption, human capital investment, and labor supply. The interaction between human capital and labor supply toward the end of the life cycle is most novel. The estimates replicate the main features of the data, in particular the large increase in wages and small increase in labor supply at the beginning of the life cycle and the small decrease in wages but large decrease in labor supply toward the end. We show that incorporating human capital is critical when analyzing changes to Social Security.

6️⃣French, E., et al. (2023). "Why Do Retired Households Draw Down Their Wealth So Slowly?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(4): 91-114.

García-Miralles, E. and J. M. Leganza (2024). "Joint retirement of couples: Evidence from discontinuities in Denmark." Journal of Public Economics 230: 105036. We study joint retirement and its underlying determinants. First, we use full-population data from Denmark and a discontinuity design to document joint retirement at the early pension eligibility age. For every 100 individuals who retire when they reach pension eligibility, around 8 of their spouses adjust their behavior to retire at the same time. Next, we investigate mechanisms. We begin by arguing that our estimates are explained primarily by leisure complementarities. We then explore heterogeneity and pathways couples take to retire together. We find that age differences are a fundamental determinant of joint retirement, which is driven by older spouses waiting to retire and claim pension benefits until their younger partners reach pension eligibility as well. We also show that females respond more than males and that secondary earners respond more than primary earners. Finally, we show that a reform increasing eligibility ages induced similar joint retirement spillovers.

7️⃣Hut, S. (2024). "Impact of Raising the Retirement Age on Firms." Journal of Human Resources: 0821-11820R11822. This paper studies the impact of raising the retirement age on firms. I rely on a policy change in the Netherlands that sharply increased the effective retirement age for workers born after 1950. For every additional retained older worker due to the reform, firms employ 0.6 fewer younger workers and reduce investments by 6,000 EUR annually. Adjustments are concentrated in low free cash flow firms, and only these firms experience declines in revenue and profitability. Lastly, I show that more time to respond to the policy implementation helps firms smooth adjustments and reduce negative profit effects.

8️⃣Mohnen, P. (2023). "The Impact of the Retirement Slowdown on the U.S. Youth Labor Market." Journal of Labor Economics. Olafsson, A. and M. Pagel (2024). "Retirement puzzles: New evidence from personal finances." Journal of Public Economics 234: 105103. Using comprehensive transaction-level panel data, we document that individuals repay their consumer debt and save more after they retire. These findings are puzzling because, in principle, people should save more before, rather than after, the expected decrease in income upon retirement. We discuss several potential explanations for our findings, including reductions in work-related expenses and increases in medical health risks around retirement, which are the leading explanations of the so-called retirement-consumption and retirement-savings puzzles. We thereby inform the larger question of whether individuals save enough for retirement.

9️⃣Pardo, O. (2023). "Mandatory retirement savings in the presence of an informal labor market." Journal of Population Economics 36(4): 2857-2888.

This paper shows how mandating workers to save more for retirement can lead them to work informally and save less. Consider a worker who is more productive in the formal sector but works informally to avoid mandatory retirement contributions. Lowering the contribution rate (the share of wages mandated to be saved) will paradoxically increase her retirement savings. The reason for this is that working informally acts as borrowing against mandatory savings. The implicit cost of such borrowing, and hence the opportunity cost of working informally, rises as the contribution rate drops. This creates a substitution effect favoring formal work, driving the worker towards the formal sector. As her formal income increases, the base for her mandatory contributions rises, expanding her retirement savings. Therefore, the optimal contribution rate is no greater than the highest contribution rate under which the worker prefers to work exclusively in the formal sector.

🔟Stuart, E. and V. L. Bryant (2024). "The impact of withdrawal penalties on retirement savings." Journal of Public Economics 232: 105083.

Tax-benefited retirement accounts have features designed to encourage saving, including a penalty for withdrawing before age 5912. Account holders also face a penalty for failing to take required minimum withdrawals after age 72. Using a bunching analysis, we estimate that these penalties cause over 17% of traditional IRA holders to change their withdrawal timing each year, shifting almost $60 billion of distributions annually. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model to analyze the effect of changing these penalties. For both penalties, we find alternative combinations of age threshold and penalty rate that lead to increased average welfare and lifetime tax remittances.

⑪Tanaka, T., et al. (2024). "Barriers to Saving for Retirement: Evidence from a Public Pension Program in Mongolia." Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics.

⑫Teresa Ghilarducci, Andrew Samwick, Work, Retire, Repeat: The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy , Journal of Economic Literature (Forthcoming)

⑬Melvin Stephens Jr. Desmond Toohey, Changes in Nutrient Intake at Retirement, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (Forthcoming)

可前往社群下载上述TOP5和其他TOP刊retirment全文PDF。

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