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Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
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The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19
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Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
1、Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
NBER Working Paper No.
26934
Òscar Jordà
,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Sanjay R. Singh,
University of California at Davis
Alan M. Taylor,
University of California
How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 15 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
原文链接：
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26934
2、The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19
NBER Working Paper No.
26945
Scott R. Baker
,
Kellogg School of Management
Nicholas Bloom
,
Stanford University
Steven J. Davis
,
Booth School of Business
Kyle J. Kost
,
University of Chicago
Marco C. Sammon
,
Department of Financce
Tasaneeya Viratyosin
,
University of Pennsylvania
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as powerfully as the COVID-19 pandemic. We use text-based methods to develop this point with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. We also argue that policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic provide the most compelling explanation for its unprecedented stock market imact.
原文链接：
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26945
3、Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
NBER Working Paper No.
26950
Laura Alfaro
,
Harvard Business School
