惠誉预计，由于巴西和澳大利亚今年晚些时候的产量增加，以及经济增长放缓，铁矿石价格将在
2020
年下半年下降。不过，该公司对中国铁矿石价格的预期依然不变，预测
2020
年
62%
品位铁矿石价格为
75
美元
/
吨
cfr
中国，
2021
年为
60
美元
/
吨。
Fitch expects iron ore prices to fall inthe second half of 2020 as a result of increasing output in Brazil andAustralia later in the year, as well as slower economic growth. Its iron oreprice assumptions, however, remain unchanged at $75/tonne cfr China for 62% Fein 2020 and at $60/t in 2021.
同时，由于巴西和澳大利亚在
2019
年期间供应中断，库存水平下降，且中国钢铁产量尽管受到新冠肺炎疫情影响，仍相对较高，因此价格迄今依然坚挺。长期来看，铁矿石价格预计将跌至
55
美元
/
吨，这将使高成本的生产商退出市场。
This comes as prices are resilient so far,with supply disruptions in Brazil and Australia during 2019 lowering inventorylevels and Chinese steel production remaining relatively high despite thecoronavirus. Over the longer term, iron ore is expected to decline to $55/t,which will squeeze out high-cost producers.
优质硬焦煤价格预期也保持不变，预测
2020
年价格为
140
美元
/
吨
fob
澳大利亚，
2021
年为
140
美元
/
吨。今年迄今，价格受到澳大利亚和中国供应中断以及蒙古对华煤炭出口禁令的支撑。
Premium hard coking coal price assumptionsalso remain unchanged at $140/t fob Australia in 2020 and at $140/t in 2021.Year-to-date prices are supported by supply disruptions in Australia and China,as well as by the Mongolian coal export ban to China.
“这可能会在
2020
年晚些时候被钢铁库存高企和经济走弱所抵消，”
惠誉在发给
Kallanish
（开阑商务信息咨询）的一份报告中表示。“中期而言，全球需求将保持相对平稳，而供应增长将来自最近投产的矿山和棕地扩张项目，主要是在澳大利亚和俄罗斯。
”
“This is likely to be offset later in 2020by high steel inventories and the weaker economy,” Fitch says in a note sent to
Kallanish
. “Global demand will remain relatively flat in the mediumterm, while supply growth will come from recently commissioned mines andbrownfield expansion, mostly in Australia and Russia.”
由于需求增长放缓和镍库存增加，对
2020
年的镍价预测从
14,000
美元
/
吨下调至
12,500
美元
/
吨，对
2021
年的价格预测从
14,000
美元
/
吨下调至
13,500
美元
/
吨。
Nickel price assumptions for 2020 have beencut to $12,500/t from $14,000/t on lower demand growth and increased nickelinventories. The assumption for 2021 has been cut to $13,500/t from $14,000/t.
惠誉表示：“中、长期
(
镍
)
价格保持不变，反映出供应可能吃紧，因为目前被政府禁止的印尼矿石出口，可能无法完全被其它镍供应商取代，而我们预计长期需求将更为强劲，尤其是考虑到镍在电动汽车电池中的应用。
”
“The unchanged medium-to-long-term [nickel]prices reflect a potential tightness in supply as Indonesian ore exports, nowbanned by the government, may not be fully replaced by other nickel suppliers,while we expect stronger long-term demand, particularly due to nickel use inbatteries for electric vehicles,” Fitch says.
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Asia Steel Markets 2020
（已延期）
22 Apr 2020, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
