北京時間 2024 年 3 月 6 日，京東集團（ 9618.SW ）發布 2023 年第四季度及全年報告。2023年第四季度，公司實現營業收入 3061 億元，同比增長 3.6 %，超彭博一致預期；其中，商品收入 2465億元，同比增長 3.7 %；服務收入 596 億元，同比增長 3.0% 。從費用端來看，2023年第四季度研發/銷售/管理/履約費用率分別為 1.42%/ 4.28%/ 0.78%/ 5.65%, 22年同期為1.48%/ 4.06 %/1.23 %/ 5.71 %，分別變化 -0.06 /+ 0.23/- 0.46/- 0.06 pct 。
利潤端表現超預期：
2023 年第四季度 Non-GAAP 凈利潤為 84 億元，同比增加 9.9 %；凈利潤率為 2.7 %，同比優化 0.1 pct 。
運營數據方面，公司聚焦價格競爭力和平臺生態建設 。
2023 年第四季度， 京東雙11成交額、訂單量、用戶數均創歷史新高。同時，四季度活躍用戶數實現加速增長，用戶平均購物頻次繼續提升。
23Q4 results: revenue up 3.6% yoy and non-GAAP net profit up 9.9% yoy
JD.com’s unaudited 23Q4 and full-year results, which it recently released, showed:
• Revenue
in the last quarter of the year rose 3.6% yoy to RMB306.1bn, above the Bloomberg consensus expectation (BBG): merchandise generated RMB246.5bn, up 3.7% yoy, and services brought in RMB59.6bn, up 3.0% yoy.
• Expenses:
R&D/ sales/ management/ contract fulfillment expense ratios were at 1.42/4.28/0.78/5.65% in 23Q4, vs 1.48/4.06/1.23/5.71% in 22Q4, changing -0.06/ +0.23/ -0.46/ -0.06ppt.
• Profitability:
outperforming expectations, non-GAAP net profit in the quarter was RMB8.4bn, up 9.9% yoy; with net margin at 2.7%, up 0.1ppt yoy.
• Operations:
the company focused on price competitiveness and built up its platform ecosystem in the quarter. Its Double-11 shopping promotions posted record high numbers in terms of transaction and order volumes, as well as the number of users. Active user numbers escalated in Q4 with higher average user shopping frequency.
京東零售：收入與去年同期基本持平，平臺生態建設穩步推進。
2023年第 四 季度，京東零售收入達 2676 億元，同比增長 3.4%, 超市場預期 。其中，電子產品及家用電器品類收入 1504 億元，去年同期收入 1417 億元，同比提升 6.1 %，增速高於同行業，核心優勢進一步鞏固 ；日用百貨品類收入 961 億元，同比 提升 0.2%, 2023 年首次實現正增長。在免傭降費等大力扶持中小商家運營的舉措下，公司四季度服務收入實現 596 億元，同比提升 30%，主要由物流及其他服務驅動；全年服務收入達 2134 億元，同比提升 17.8% 。
Retail: Q4 revenue levels roughly flat; platform ecosystem buildup in progress
JD.com’s retail revenue came to RMB267.6bn in 23Q4, up 3.4% yoy, above market expectations. A revenue profile breakdown shows:
• Electronic products and household appliances
generated RMB150.4bn, vs RMB141.7bn in 22Q4, up 6.1% yoy. JD grew faster than its peers and consolidated its core advantages.
• Daily necessities
generated RMB96.1bn in revenue, up 0.2% yoy, a quarterly growth turnaround from the decline trend earlier in 2023.
• Services:
with measures in place to support SME operations, such as commission exemption and fee reduction, JD’s service revenue reached RMB59.6bn in Q4, up 3.0% yoy, driven mostly by logistics and other services. Notably, full-year service revenue leapt 17.8% to RMB213.4bn.
整體來看，在降價、補貼等舉措下京東零售收入保持穩健，核心帶電品類助力業務增長。2023 年初公司 「春曉計劃 啟動，聚焦開放生態建設，豐富消費者商品選擇。截至 2023 年底，京東三方商家數量已近百萬，三方商家的商品 SKU 數量較年初增長了近一倍。我們認為，隨著下沈策略的推進，各價格帶商品豐富度提升助力市場份額的獲取 。
Price cuts and subsidies:
JD.com’s retail revenue stability was the result of price cuts, subsidies and other measures, while core appliance categories boosted business growth. Its Spring Dawn third-party merchant support program, which launched at the beginning of 2023, built up an open ecosystem that boosted consumer product choices. Its 3P merchants had increased to nearly 1m by the end of 2023, with their product SKUs nearly double from the start of the year. As JD’s lower-tier-city penetration strategy progressed, we believe that the enhanced product options across all price bands will help it gain market share.
3 月 13 日，國務院印發《推動大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新行動方案》。同日 ，京東 3C 數碼正式對外發布了三大計劃舉措，其中「以舊換新」專項扶持計劃將以整合 30 億元加碼補貼，預計未來三年以舊換新或撬動新品銷售超 1000 億元。在核心品類的驅動下，京東零售收入有望重回良性增長通道。
2024E outlook:
China’s State Council issued an action plan on 13 March calling for large-scale equipment iteration and the trade-in of consumer goods. That same day, JD.com’s 3C Digital business announced three major initiatives, including a trade-in support program with an additional subsidy of RMB3bn. The company estimates trade-ins of old products would drive new product sales of more than RMB100bn over the next three years. We believe JD.com’s retail revenue will return to a healthy growth trend on the strength of its core product categories.
京東物流：營收、凈利潤再創新高 ，高質量增長趨勢鞏固 。
2023年第四季度，京東物流收入達 472 億元，同比增長 9.7 %，低於市場預期。2023 年全年，實現營收1666億元，同比提升 21.3%；全年經調整 (Non IFRS ）凈利潤實現 27.6 億元，同比提升 218.8% 。其中，一體化供應鏈客戶收入同比增長 5.2% 至 815 億元，其他客戶收入同比增長 42.0% 至 852 億元。截至 2023 年 底 ，外部一體化供應鏈客戶數量達約 7.5 萬名，ARPC 同比增長 15.2%至 42.0 萬元。
Logistics: Q4 revenue and net profit hit new highs on quality growth trends
Business growth:
JD Logistics generated revenue of RMB47.2bn in 23Q4, up 9.7% yoy, below market expectation. For the full year, revenue arrived at RMB166.6bn, up 21.3%; with non-IFRS adjusted net profit at RMB2.76bn, up 218.8%. Integrated supply chain customers increased revenue by 5.2% to RMB81.5bn, while other customers increased revenue by 42.0% to RMB85.2bn. The number of external integrated supply chain customers grew to about 75,000 by the end of 2023, while average revenue per customer increased 15.2% to RMB420,000.
我們認為，隨著與德邦網絡融合的推進 ，快運業務收入規模繼續擴大，規模效應下有望進一步降本。同時，公司以海外倉為核心， 進一步構建全球供應鏈網絡。截止 2023 年底，公司擁有近 90 個保稅倉庫、直郵倉庫和海外倉庫，總管理面積接近 90 萬平方米。
Network expansion:
as JD integrates its network with subsidiary Deppon Logistics, we believe the scale of its express business revenue will expand and we anticipate more cost reductions on the scale effect. The company is also building a global supply chain network with foreign warehouses at the core. It has nearly 90 bonded warehouses, direct mail warehouses and foreign warehouses, with a total management area of nearly 900,000 sq m as of end-2023.
驅動因素: 擬收購 Currys 謀求海外市場 加碼股東分紅及回購 。
2024 年 2 月 19 日，公司發布聲明稱，正考慮向 Currys（CURY.UK）提出收購要約，其中可能包括對Currys 全部已發行股本的現金收購要約。我們認為， 在供應鏈出海整體能力提升的基礎上，公司擬收購英國電子產品頭部零售商進一步拓展歐洲市場，同時 Ochama 已將上門配送服務拓展至 24 個歐洲國家，一體化供應鏈物流服務的鋪開有望漸次打開海外市場規模。
Europe expansion:
JD announced on 19 Feb 2024 it is considering making an offer to acquire Currys (CURY.UK) and the plan could include a cash offer to acquire the entire issued share capital of Currys. We believe JD aims to enhance capacity of its foreign supply chain, by which the acquisition of a leading British electronic product retailer could springboard its European market expansion. JD subsidiary Ochama recently expanded door-to-door delivery services to 24 European countries, so JD’s rollout of its integrated supply chain logistics services would increase the company’s access to foreign markets.
此外，3 月 6 日，公司公告稱，董事會已批準年度現金股利，總額約為 12 億美元，股息率約為 3.0%（對應 3 月 11 日收盤市值約為 401 億美元）；同時計劃在未來 36 個月內回購價值不超過 30 億美元的股份。我們認為，隨著回購計劃的有序推進，公司或迎來估值的重估。
USD1.2bn dividend:
subsequently, JD announced on 6 March its board of directors has approved an annual cash dividend amounting to about USD1.2bn, with a dividend ratio of about 3.0% (corresponding to USD40.1bn market cap at the close on 11 March). It also plans to repurchase up to USD3bn of shares over the next 36 months. As the buyback plan progresses, we see a potential revaluation ahead for JD.com.
