专栏名称: 天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
目录
相关文章推荐
不正常人类研究中心  ·  鼠鼠我呀,也是被初音未来看上了 ·  昨天  
英式没品笑话百科  ·  德国百年传统“鹿鸣模仿大赛”战况激烈 ... ·  昨天  
英式没品笑话百科  ·  1518年古罗马的舞蹈瘟疫,从7月到9月,有 ... ·  2 天前  
冷丫  ·  测试自己男友忠诚度的服务。 ·  5 天前  
英式没品笑话百科  ·  这恶作剧在国内估计行不通 ... ·  4 天前  
51好读  ›  专栏  ›  天风国际

周大福: 金價上漲致同店承壓,全年謹慎樂觀

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-06-25 18:00

正文

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

(1929 HK)


金價上漲致同店承壓,全年謹慎樂觀


Post FY24 uptrends, we view full-year FY25E with cautious optimism amid the rising gold price impact on SSS


BUY(maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈FY24年報

FY24全年營收1087億港幣,同增15%,剔除匯率因素後同增19%;歸母淨利65億港幣,同增21%。


FY24 revenue up 15% and net profit up 21%; mainland gold product sales up 23%

Key financial metrics: Chow Tai Fook (CTF) released results for FY24 (fiscal year ended March 2024) last week with revenue at HKD108.7bn, up 15% or up 19% excluding FX; while net profit came to HKD6.5bn, up 21%.


分地區看, FY24內地營收897億港幣,同增9.9%(佔總83%),港澳及其他營收190億港幣,同增46%(佔總17%);分產品看,FY24黃金類營收同增22.5%(佔總82%);鑲嵌類營收同減13.3%(佔總13.4%)。


Markets:

•China mainland generated revenue of HKD89.7bn, up 9.9% (accounting for 83% of total revenue)

•Hong Kong, Macau and foreign markets generated revenue of HKD19bn, up 46% (17% of total revenue).


Product categories:

•Gold jewelry and products (thereafter: “Gold jewelry”) revenue increased 22.5% yoy (accounting for 82% of total revenue)

•Inlaid, platinum and K-gold jewelry (thereafter: “Inlaid jewelry”) revenue fell 13.3% yoy (13.4% of the total).


分渠道看(內地) ,FY24批發營收同增15.1%(佔總47%);零售同增3.6%(佔總35.5%),其中電商量價齊升,銷售值同增18.8%,均價2080港幣,同增210港幣,對總零售銷售值貢獻4.8%,對總零售銷售量貢獻11.6%。


Channel breakdown (mainland market):

•Wholesale revenue increased 15.1% yoy (accounting for 47% of total revenue)

•Retail revenue increased 3.6% yoy (35.5% of the total): the ecommerce division drove both volume and price increases, with sales value up 18.8% and ASP up by HKD210 to HKD2,080, contributing 4.8% of retail sales value and 11.6% of retail sales volume.


毛利率及費用率: FY24全年毛利率22.8%,同減0.9pct,其中零售業務中各產品的毛利率優化帶來1.4pct增長,但產品組合變動導致1.5pct下降;OPM11.2%,同增1.2pct,其中內地同增0.9pct,港澳及其他同增3.7pct;SG&A比率12.2%,同減2.3pct,成本管理取得成效,運營效率提升。


Profitability perspectives:

•Gross margin narrowed 0.9ppt to 22.8% (the 1.5ppt margin dip on product mix changes negated the 1.4ppt widening from margin optimization efforts in various retail products).

•Operating margin expanded 1.2ppt to 11.2%; with mainland up 0.9ppt and non-mainland up 3.7ppt.

•SG&A ratio reduced 2.3ppt to 12.2% on better cost management and operational efficiency.


零售點: 截至240331,中國內地有7403個(同增143個)零售點,其中加盟店5678個,同增122個,加盟店零售值同增23.4%(佔總70%);直營店1725個,同增21個,直營店零售值同增5.8%(佔總30%)。


Retail outlets (mainland): CTF currently has 7,403 retail outlets in mainland of China as of end-March 2024, 143 more than in the previous fiscal year. They comprise:

•5,678 franchised stores (122 more yoy): retail sales value increased 23.4% in FY24 (accounting for 70% of the total).

•1,725 directly-operated stores (21 more yoy): retail sales value increased 5.8% in FY24 (30% of the total).


同店銷售: 中國內地直營同店銷售同增1.8%,同店銷售量同減4.8%;中國內地加盟店同店銷售同增7.4%,同店銷售量同減4.2%。分產品看,黃金類同店銷售同增6.4%,同店銷量同減0.6%,均價5600港幣;鑲嵌類同店銷售同減14.4%,同店銷量同減20.5%,均價8100港幣;


Same-store sales (mainland):

•Direct sales: SSS value at directly-operated mainland stores increased 1.8%, while SSS volume reduced 4.8%.

•Franchises: SSS value at franchised stores in mainland of China rose 7.4%, while SSS volume fell 4.2%.

•Product categories:

-Gold jewelry: SSS value increased 6.4% yoy and SSS volume fell 0.6%; with ASP at HKD5,600.

-Inlaid jewelry: SSS value fell 14.4% and SSS volume fell 20.5%, while ASP came in at HKD8,100.


港澳及其他同店 銷售同增42.4%,同店銷量同增32%,分產品黃金類同店銷售同增67.7%,同店銷量同增43%,均價8100港幣;鑲嵌類同店銷售同減4.8%,同店銷量同減4.4%,均價16700港幣。


Same-store sales (non-mainland):

•SSS value increased 42.4% and SSS volume increased 32%.

•Product categories:

-Gold jewelry: SSS value rose 67.7% and SSS volume increased 43%, with ASP at HKD8,100.

-Inlaid jewelry: SSS value fell 4.8% and SSS volume fell 4.4%, with ASP at HKD16,700.


2024年4-5月零售值同減20%,其中內地零售值同減19%(佔總88%),港澳及其他零售值同減29%(佔總12%);


April to May 2024 update: total RSV down 20% yoy; mainland SSS down 28% yoy

Retail sales value fell 20% yoy during the first 2 months of the current fiscal year in April and May, as revealed by CTF’s business update. A breakdown shows:

•Mainland: retail sales value fell 19% yoy (accounting for 88% of the total).

•Non-mainland: retail sales value fell 29% yoy (accounting for 12% of the total).


同店方面: 內地同店銷售同減28%,同店銷量同減40%,港澳同店銷售同減32%,同店銷量同減37%。分產品來看,港澳黃金類同店銷售同減35%,鑲嵌類同店銷量同減31%。


Same-store sales:

•Mainland: SSS value fell 28% yoy and SSS volume fell 40% yoy.

•HK and Macau: SSS value fell 32% yoy and SSS volume fell 37% yoy. A breakdown of product categories shows:

-Gold jewelry: SSS value fell 35% yoy.

-Inlaid jewelry: SSS value fell 31% yoy.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預期,維持“買入”評級

公司於24年4月開展轉型之旅:推出面向消費者的全新品牌標誌、品牌網站和標誌性的周大福傳福系列,品牌轉型穩步取得進展,維持增長趨勢。考慮到金價高位震盪下終端需求承壓,我們預計FY25-27收入分別爲1157億港幣、1240億港幣、1330億港幣(FY25-26前值爲1262 億港幣、1463億港幣),歸母淨利潤分別爲70億港幣、78 億港幣、87億港幣(FY25-26前值爲88 億港幣、100億港幣),EPS分別爲0.70港幣、0.78港幣、0.87港幣(FY25-26前值爲0.88 港幣、1.00港幣),對應PE分別爲12、11、10X。


Valuation and risks

CTF rolled out a branding and business revamp on 24 April with new consumer-oriented brand logos as well as Chow Tai Fook brand website with its signature Rouge collection. The revamp has paced steadily as the company maintained its growth uptrend. Taking into consideration potential end-market demand pressures and sharp volatility in gold prices, we lower our forecast for FY25/26/27E to revenue of HKD115.7bn/124bn/133bn (previously HKD126.2bn/146.3bn for FY25/26E) and net profit of HKD7bn/7.8bn/8.7bn (previously HKD8.8bn/10bn for FY25/26E). Our EPS moves to HKD0.70/0.78/0.87 (previously HKD0.88/1.00 in FY25/26E), with PE at 12x/11x/10x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示: 拓店不及預期、新店銷售不及預期、金價波動風險等。


Risks include: a slower-than-expected store opening pace; weaker-than-expected new store sales; and gold price volatility.



Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

(pls scan the QR code)








文件







请到「今天看啥」查看全文