宏觀經濟平穩增長，24Q1預計收入同比提升。從宏觀環境來看，24Q1消費品零售恢復態勢良好，恢復至19年同期的123%。根據國家統計局數據，2024年1—3月份，社會消費品零售總額120327億元，同比增長4.7%，消費整體呈現平穩增長態勢；從線上消費來看，全國網上零售額33082億元，同比增長12.4%；實物商品網上零售額同比增長11.6%，高於整體社零總額增速。
24Q1E: macro consumption growth likely drove JD revenue uptrend yoy
This report provides our preview of JD.com’s business performance for 24Q1E. Macro data in the first quarter show a steady growth trend as consumer spending increased in China, which we believe led a revenue uptrend for the ecommerce giant:
Macro data:
consumer retail sales in China recovered well in 24Q1, equivalent to 123% of 19Q1. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the country’s consumer goods retail sales amounted to RMB12.03tr over the first quarter in 2024, up 4.7% yoy, which indicates the consumption market as a whole drove stable growth.
Online retail:
Chinese online retail sales came to RMB3.31tr in Q1, up 12.4% yoy, within which physical goods grew 11.6% yoy. This was higher than the total consumer retail sales growth rate.
分品類來看，京東三大品類家用電器和音像器材類/通訊器材類/日用品類分別實現行業零售額2053 / 1767 / 1951億元，同比5.8% / 13.2% / 0.7%。根據國家統計局數據，2024年1—3月份，全國房地產開發投資22082億元，同比下降9.5%（按可比口徑計算），整體來看房地產市場在去年高基數影響弱化下，跌幅有望縮窄。我們預計，京東集團24Q1收入同比上升6.8%至2594億元，收入保持高於社零增速增長，主要系1）整體來看，終端消費整體平穩修復，地產市場有望企穩回升；2）分品類來看，京東3C家電等核心品類在地產市場修復進程中景氣度有望持續擡升，日百品類在3P生態的繁榮下有望進入良性增長通道；我們認爲，憑藉公司較強的供應鏈能力及內部效率優化，未來隨着宏觀經濟向好，居民消費需求或逐步釋放，驅動公司業績向好。
Key categories:
we looked at Q1 national industry growth rates in the three retail sales categories that are JD.com’s major markets:
•Household appliances and AV equipment: RMB205.3bn, up 5.8% yoy;
•Communication equipment: RMB176.7bn, 13.2% yoy; and
•Daily necessities: RMB195.1bn, 0.7% yoy.
Real estate:
NBS data shows China’s real estate development investments amounted to RMB2208.2bn in Q1, 9.5% lower yoy (on a comparable basis). We attribute the softening downtrend for the total real estate market to last year’s high base.
JD.com:
we expect JD’s revenue in 24Q1E would have increased 6.8% yoy to RMB259.4bn, higher than China’s consumer retail growth, for the following reasons:
•Real estate pickup: in view of the steady overall end-market consumption recovery, we believe the real estate market would have stabilized and rebound; and
•Key categories growth: the real estate recovery in turn would have driven growth in JD’s core categories like computer, communications and consumer appliances (3C), while the growing third-party merchant ecosystem would have jumpstarted growth in the daily necessities category.
Outlook:
as consumer demand picks up gradually, we believe JD.com’s strong supply chain capabilities and internal efficiency optimization will continue to improve the company’s business performance.
業務調整影響有望於24Q1結束，24Q1預計淨利潤同比提升
從公司業務來看，公司組織架構調整影響有望於2024年第一季度出清，POP生態建設穩步推進，公司將投入最大力度激活新老商家動銷的轉化。2023年年初，京東通過推出“春曉計劃”吸引大量新商家加入。截止2024年3月，京東三方商家有效店鋪數突破百萬。4月18日，京東618商家生態夥伴大會上，京東集團CEO許冉表示，京東將投入最大力度的資源，在流量生態、AI技術、服務能力三大核心領域升級，通過一系列扶持舉措，實現超15萬中小商家在京東618銷售同比增長超50%的目標，同時讓銷售過百萬的商家數量同比增長超100%。我們認爲隨着中國消費市場的持續復甦，平臺的低價供給豐富度的提升或爲後續下沉市場的攻堅及老用戶的激活打下基礎。我們預計，24Q1公司non-GAAP歸母淨利潤達74.4億元，同比提升2.9%，non-GAAP歸母淨利潤率同比小幅下滑，主要系：1）作爲2024總檯春晚獨家互動合作平臺拉高營銷費用。2）京東自2024年年初提升採銷、客服等員工的薪酬激勵和福利保障帶來人力資源支出提升。長期來看，用戶拉新（用戶數提升）及轉化留存（單用戶GMV）有望持續貢獻京東零售業務的業績彈性。
Business restructure impact likely subsided and net profit likely up yoy in 24Q1E
We believe the business impact of the company’s organization restructure would have cleared in 24Q1E. The POP ecosystem buildout is progressing steadily and JD plans to invest as much as it can to help new and old merchants with sales conversion. It had wooed many new merchants to join its Spring Dawn 3P merchant support program at the beginning of 2023 and the effective number of stores by 3P merchants grew to more than 1m as of March 2024.
JD.com CEO Sandy Ran XU, speaking at JD’s 618 Merchant Ecosystem Partner Conference on 18 April, revealed that the company will invest maximum resources to upgrade three key areas of its ecosystem: user traffic flows, AI technologies and service capabilities. It will roll out support initiatives with the goals of helping over 150,000 SME merchants achieve sales growth of over 50% yoy at the 618 shopping festival, and drive up by over 100% yoy the number of merchants with sales of more than RMB1m.
As China’s consumer market continues to recover, we believe the JD.com platform’s abundance of low-priced supplies will provide a sound launch pad for future efforts to penetrate the lower-tier-city market, while it stimulates current dormant users. We expect 24Q1E non-GAAP net profit will come to RMB7.44bn, up 2.9% yoy, although non-GAAP net margin could decline slightly yoy. Our rationale is based on these factors:
•JD.com was the “exclusive interactive partner” for this year’s Spring Festival Gala: this means marketing expenses would have been heavier than usual.
•JD.com increased salary incentives and welfare programs for employees from the beginning of 2024, including purchases, sales and customer services, implying heavier human resource expenditures.
Outlook:
we expect better user acquisitions (i.e. more users) and conversion retention (per-user GMV) will improve JD.com’s retail profit elasticity for the long term.
24Q1累計回購約21億美元，公司或迎來估值的重估
截至2024年第一季度，公司已回購合計87.5百萬股A類普通股（相當於43.8百萬股美國存托股），總額爲12億美元。公司於2024年第一季度回購的股份總數爲截至2023年12月31日其發行在外普通股總數的約2.8%。根據公司於2024年3月17日屆滿的先前股份回購計劃，截至2024年3月17日，公司已回購合計約21億美元。根據公司新股份回購計劃（有效期至2027年3月18日），截至2024年3月31日，公司已回購合計約5億美元，剩餘金額爲25億美元。我們認爲，隨着回購計劃的有序推進，公司或迎來估值的重估。
24Q1E cumulative buybacks at ~USD2.1bn; potential revaluation of JD’s stock
JD.com repurchased 87.5m class A ordinary shares (equivalent to 43.8m US depositary shares) for a total of USD1.2bn in 24Q1E. The repurchased shares were equivalent to about 2.8% of total common shares outstanding as of 31 Dec 2023. The company bought back shares amounting to about USD2.1bn as of 17 March 2024 (the share repurchase program through 17 March 2024). For its new share repurchase plan (through 18 March 2027), JD has so far repurchased about USD500m as of 31 March 2024, which leaves a remainder of USD2.5bn. Anticipating smooth implementation of the company’s buyback plan, we believe the company’s stock could potentially see a revaluation.
