FY23前瞻：AI佈局及劇目上線推遲或致收入承壓
我們預計FY23閱文集團收入為69億元，yoy-9%；Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤為10.6億元，yoy-21%，主要系《與鳳行》推遲及AI投入的影響。《與鳳行》由趙麗穎、林更新主演，系古裝小說IP改編而成，將在央視、江蘇衛視、騰訊視頻首播，目前騰訊視頻平臺預約人數超470萬。2023年7月，閱文發佈行業首個大模型“閱文妙筆”以及基於此的應用端產品“作家助手妙筆版”，主要服務於作家創作輔助、運營數據等方面，AI投入或帶動作家創作效率提升。
2023E preview: AI business buildout; drama release delays may pressure revenue
Drama holdup:
we estimate China Literature (CL) would have generated revenue of RMB6.9bn in 2023E, down 9% yoy, with non-IFRS net profit at RMB1.06bn, down 21% yoy mainly because of the delayed release of The Legend of Shen Li as well as AI investments. The Legend of Shen Li, adapted from a historical novel IP and starring Zanilia Zhao and Lin Gengxin, is to premiere on CCTV, Jiangsu Satellite TV and Tencent Video. More than 4.7m users on Tencent Video have reserved to watch the show when it premieres.
The first writers’ LLM:
the company made AI investments to boost writers’ creative efficiency. CL released the writing industry’s first large language model, Yuewen Miaobi, in July 2023, along with related app Writer’s Assistant Miaobi, whose digital aids boost writers’ creativity and operational data.
FY24：關注重點劇目、電影情況
我們認為閱文集團2024年或有多部重點劇目值得關注：1）電影：關注《熱辣滾燙》表現。新麗傳媒出品、賈玲導演的《熱辣滾燙》官宣定檔春節初一（2月10日）上映，根據貓眼專業版APP，截至2月11日，預測票房37億左右。此前，新麗傳媒已出品40部影片，票房累計超360億元，12部電影票房超過10億，其中《你好李煥英》總票房54.1億；《西虹市首富》總票房25.5億；《這個殺手不太冷靜》總票房26.3億；2）劇目：2024年或有多部大劇上映。《慶餘年2》由王倦任編劇，孫皓執導，張若昀領銜主演。前作《慶餘年》是閱文集團白金作家貓膩的早期作品，也是其成名作，在騰訊視頻的播放量達93億。截止2月11日，《慶餘年2》預約已突破1000萬，熱度攀升。《大奉打更人》預約超200萬。《大奉打更人》是一部穿越英雄成長類古裝劇，是2023閱文全球華語IP盛典中24年“年度最受期待改編IP”。閱文集團24年多部古偶IP待播備受矚目，或拉開24年爆款序幕。《與鳳行》預約超470萬，《狐妖小紅念月紅篇》預約超300萬。
2024E pipeline: monitor data points around major dramas and movies
CL has several major dramas in its 2024E pipeline that are worth monitoring, in our view:
Movies:
YOLO, produced by New Classics Media and directed by Jia Ling, premiered at Chinese New Year (10 Feb) and is expected to garner box-office takings of about RMB3.7bn, according to Maoyan app pro edition (as of 11 Feb). New Classics Media has produced 40 films with a total box-office of more than RMB36bn, including 12 that raked in over RMB1bn, such as Hi, Mom (RMB5.41bn), Hello Mr Billionaire (RMB2.55bn) and Too Cool to Kill (RMB2.63bn).
Dramas:
the company has a strong line-up of dramas for 2024E. Joy of Life 2, written by Wang Juan and directed by Sun Hao, stars Zhang Ruoyun. The first Joy of Life, based on a famous early work by CL’s platinum-rated writer Mao Ni, had been viewed 9.3bn times on Tencent Video. The upcoming Joy of Life 2 has chalked up over 10m user reservations as of 11 Feb and the hype is running high. Meanwhile, Guardians of Dafeng, a time-travel coming-of-age historical drama, has over 2m reservations, having earned the label for the Most Anticipated IP Adaptation in 2024 at CL’s 2023 Global Chinese IP Festival. Two highly-anticipated historical idol IPs in the company’s pipeline could kick off 2024E on a roll: The Legend of Shen Li (over 4.7m reservations) and Fox Spirit Matchmaker 1 (over 3m reservations).
收購騰訊動漫，有望豐富IP儲備，提高IP變現效率。
12月11日閱文發佈公告宣佈收購騰訊動漫，其中包括騰訊動漫APP平臺、其作品知識產權與相關專利、以及動畫和影視項目等等，擬6億人民幣現金。騰訊動漫Top 30暢銷榜作品中約有50%來自閱文，孵化包括《一人之下》《狐妖小紅娘》《大王饒命》等多個頭部IP。此次交易可豐富閱文上游頭部IP儲備，補充動畫產能的同時為小說漫改的合作產線鞏固基礎，有望為閱文業務增長帶來新驅動。閱文集團通過此次收購，有望完善動漫IP上下游鏈路體系，提高IP可視化和變現效率。
CL’s acquisition of Tencent A&C boosts IP resources and IP monetization ability
CL announced in December it is acquiring Tencent Animation & Comics (Tencent A&C) for RMB600m in cash. The purchase covers the app platform, IP rights and patents, as well as its animation film and TV projects. About 50% of Tencent A&C’s top 30 bestselling products originated from CL, which had incubated major IP like The Outcast, Fox Spirit Matchmaker and Your Majesty, Forgive Me. The transaction enriches CL’s leadership in upstream IP reserves, supplements its animation production capacity, and firms the foundation for future collaborations to produce novel and comic adaptations. We expect this business will become a new growth driver for CL. It improves CL’s upstream and downstream system linkage for animation IP, while improving IP visualization and monetization efficiency.
