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美團-W: 收入利潤均超預期,新業務虧損持續收窄

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-07-02 18:06

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Meituan

(3690 HK)


收入利潤均超預期,新業務虧損持續收窄


24Q1E results takeaways: revenue and profit better than expected; losses from new businesses narrowed further


BUY(maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

整體業績:24Q1盈利表現超市場一致預期

美團24Q1收入732.8億元,超彭博一致預期6.0%;EBIT 52.1億元,超彭博一致預期25.2%。調整後淨利潤約74.9億元,超彭博一致預期25.4%。分業務來看,核心本地商業收入546.3億元,超彭博一致預期7.7%;新業務收入186.5億元,超彭博一致預期2.3%。


核心本地商業:24Q1收入端和利潤端均超預期

24Q1收入546.3億元,其中配送服務收入210.7元,佣金收入200.3億元,在線營銷收入103.1億元。24Q1經營利潤97.0億元,超彭博一致預期14.9%。


24Q1E revenue and profit above expectations; new business losses narrowed

Key metrics: Meituan posted unaudited 24Q1E results earlier this month with revenue at RMB73.28bn (6.0% better than Bloomberg consensus (BBG)), EBIT at RMB5.21bn (25.2% above BBG) and adjusted net profit at RMB7.49bn (25.4% above BBG). Segmentally, core local commerce operations generated revenue of RMB54.63bn (7.7% above BBG), while new businesses generated RMB18.65bn (2.3% above BBG).


Core business: core revenue amounted to RMB54.63bn in 24Q1E, including RMB21.07bn from food and grocery delivery services, RMB20.03bn from commissions and RMB10.31bn from online marketing services. Operating profit came to RMB9.70bn, outperforming BBG by 14.9%.


餐飲外賣:年度交易用戶數量和交易頻率均顯著增加。公司在產品、營銷和供應鏈方面優化運營: 1)推出“品牌衛星店”以提升知名連鎖餐廳的效率;2)將“拼好飯”覆蓋範圍擴大到更多城市,“拼好飯”日訂單量在24Q1創下新高;3)改善“神搶手 ”供應,完善網絡營銷策略4)節假日期間開展營銷活動,刺激消費需求,提供多種優惠券套餐和折扣推廣大熱產品。


Segmental perspectives: strategic and operational improvements

F&B delivery: the number of annual transaction users and transaction frequency jumped in the first quarter as Meituan optimized its products, marketing and supply chain:

•It launched a satellite kitchen initiative to help increase the delivery efficiency of well-known chain restaurants.

•Expanded coverage of its Pin Hao Fan group-purchase service to more cities in the mainland and an improved order dispatch system led to a new high in daily order volume in 24Q1E.

•The Shen Qiang Shou initiative expanded supply with more offerings from popular chain restaurants and refined its online marketing strategy.

•The company stimulated demand and maximized holidays with enhanced marketing activities, such as coupon packages and discounts to promote popular products.


美團閃購:24Q1交易用戶數量大幅增加,交易頻率實現高增長。 春節期間,酒水飲料、節日禮品和日用品等品類的 GTV 均錄得顯著增長。商戶在平臺上投放廣告意願增強,公司也與品牌和商戶合作共同推出促銷活動。公司繼續拓展新的供應業態,截至24Q1末,公司擁有約 7,000 家美團閃電倉,訂單佔比進一步提升。美團閃電倉加快在低線市場的線上滲透,品類不斷擴大。


Instashopping: the number of transaction users shot up in 24Q1E and transaction frequency rose sharply. Gross transaction value (GTV) in categories such as wines and other beverages, holiday gifts and daily necessities recorded strong growth during the Chinese New Year holiday period. Merchant willingness to place advertisements on the platform increased as Meituan cooperated with brands and merchants to launch promotional activities. The company continued to expand new supply formats. It currently has about 7,000 Meituan InstaMarts as of end-24Q1, whose orders grew as a proportion of total orders in the quarter. Meituan InstaMarts expanded product categories and accelerated their online penetration in low-tier-city markets.


到店酒旅:到店業務方面,公司提高營銷能力,豐富內容產品。 公司在節假日期間推出了專門的直播活動。美團平臺直播擴展到更多地區,並進一步提高了直播頻率。此外,公司在全國範圍內推行直營模式,進軍低線市場。公司積極吸納低線市場的商戶,包括網絡名店、連鎖店和本地特色店,併爲他們提供高效的運營解決方案和營銷工具。酒店和旅遊方面,24Q1國內酒店客房間夜數和 GTV 均實現強勁的同比增長。公司繼續加強平臺供應、定價、產品能力和營銷策略。小衆目的地的業績表現強勁,增長速度超過行業平均水平。24Q1公司鞏固低星級酒店的市場份額,同時在高星級酒店領域也取得了進展。我們認爲美團到店業務的積累在於強大的商戶數基礎以及與線下流量強相關的找店心智。


In-store, hotels and travel:

•In-store: Meituan improved marketing and enhanced product quality. It launched special livestreams during holidays. Its livestream platform expanded to more regions, along with higher broadcast frequency. The company widened its direct sales model nationwide and entered low-tier-city markets. The merchants it added in low-tier-city markets include online famous stores, chain stores and local specialty stores, where Meituan provides efficient operating solutions and marketing tools. In our view, the in-store business is driven by a strong merchant base and the company’s store-finding strategy based on offline footfall.

•Hotels and travel: hotel room nights and GTV in the Chinese market both achieved strong yoy growth in 24Q1E. The company strengthened platform supply, pricing, product capabilities and marketing strategies. Niche travel destinations did particularly well with growth rates that outperformed the industry average. The company entrenched its market share in low-star hotels and made some progress in the high-star hotel segment.


新業務:24Q1經營虧損同比收窄至27.6億元。

24Q1新業務收入186.5億元;經營虧損27.6億元,好於彭博一致預期14.7%。運營利潤率連續改善,爲負 14.8%。


New businesses: segmental revenue amounted to RMB18.65bn in 24Q1E; with an operating loss of RMB2.76bn, 14.7% better than BBG. Operating margin improved at negative 14.8%.


美團優選:完善業務策略,更加註重運營提升和高質量增長: 提高加價率;加強倉庫運營的同時降低每件商品的平均履約成本;提高營銷效率。運營虧損環比和同比均大幅收窄。展望未來,公司將進一步提高運營效率,加強產品選擇和履行方面的能力。


Meituan Select: operating loss narrowed sharply in both qoq and yoy terms, as the company improved business strategies and focused on operational improvements and better-quality growth:

•It increased goods’ markup rates

•It strengthened warehouse operations while reducing the average fulfillment cost of each item

•It improved marketing efficiency.


Looking ahead, Meituan plans to improve operational efficiency and strengthen its capabilities in product selection and fulfillment.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 美團的核心競爭力在於強大的商戶基礎以及積累數十年的用戶的真實評價,現階段來看自身護城河依然穩固。現階段來看,外賣業務壁壘穩固,外部競爭格局逐步清晰,未來美團核心本地商業盈利能力有望持續加強。考慮到本季度美團收入端和利潤端均超預期,新業務虧損持續收窄下盈利能力提升,我們預測美團2024-2026年收入分別爲3292/3809/4293億元(前值3167/3773/4277億元),淨利潤(Non-IFRS)分別爲364/530/650億元(前值328/472/542億元),維持“買入”評級。


Forecast and risks

We believe that Meituan continues to hold a strong competitive advantage due to a strong merchant base and decades of real user reviews. It has a firm lead in the F&B delivery business, in our view. With macro factors set to become more visible, we expect Meituan’s core local commerce profitability will continue to strengthen in the future. In view of its better-than-expected total revenue and profit in Q1E, and a profitability improvement in new businesses, which narrowed losses, we nudged up our revenue forecast for Meituan to RMB329.2bn/380.9bn/429.3bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB316.7bn/377.3bn/427.7bn) and non-IFRS net profit to RMB36.4bn/ 53.0bn/65.0bn (previously RMB32.8bn/47.2bn/ 54.2bn). We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 外賣增速放緩;本地生活服務競爭加劇;線下消費恢復持續性存在不確定性;新業務減虧節奏存在不確定性。


Risks include: slowing food delivery growth rates; intensifying competition in local services; uncertainty of a sustainable offline consumption recovery; and uncertainty of the loss-reduction trend in the new businesses.



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