(本文选自《经济学人》20210417期)
背景介绍：
4月16日，国家统计局公布了我国2021年一季度经济数据，初步核算，一季度国内生产总值（GDP）接近25万亿元，同比增长18.3%，两年平均增长5.0%。在16日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局国民经济综合统计司司长、新闻发言人刘爱华表示，数据表明我国经济稳定恢复。
Is growth in China soaring or slowing?
The answer depends on how you calculate growth
The excited headlines were predictable. When China reported its GDP for the first three months of the year on April 16th, growth soared to 18.3% compared with a year earlier. It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.
这些激动人心的头条新闻都在意料之中。4月16日，中国公布了今年前三个月的GDP数据，相比去年同期增长了18.3%。这成为了中国有史以来最大的一次增幅，凸显了中国经济复苏的强势势头。不过，这也说明了GDP报告方式的奇怪之处。
China’s recovery should be old news. Since last March, when the country emerged from its covid-19 closures, a wide range of indicators, from metro ridership to export orders, have pointed upwards.
中国的经济复苏已经不是什么新闻了。自去年3月中国成功控制住疫情以来，从地铁客运量到出口订单等一系列指标都呈上升趋势。
But because the
convention
in China is to report GDP in year-on-year terms, it is only now that the recovery makes a dramatic appearance in its most-watched data series.
但由于中国过去习惯于以年为单位公布GDP数据，因此直到现在，经济复苏才在其最受欢迎的一系列数据中脱颖而出。
The nearly normal first quarter of 2021 is being compared with the largely locked-down first quarter of 2020. (If anything, the latest number was slightly below economists’ expectations).
与几乎停摆的2020年第一季度相比，2021年第一季度基本上恢复了正常。（如果说有什么不同的话，那就是最新的数据略低于经济学家的预期。）
America and Japan instead focus on growth in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms: what growth would be if the quarter’s pace were maintained for a full year, adjusted for seasonality.
而美国和日本则将重点放在了季度环比的年化增长上：即假设该季度的增速能够保持一整年，那么根据季节性因素调整后，得出了这一年的增长率。
Seen this way, America’s rebound came in the third quarter of 2020, when annualised growth hit a jaw-dropping 33%. China, by contrast, reported a more modest-sounding rate of 4.9% year-on-year back then.
从这个角度来看，美国的经济反弹发生在2020年第三季度，当时的年化增长率达到了惊人的33%。相比之下，中国当年的同比增长率则较为缓和，仅为4.9%。
Both methods have drawbacks, especially in times of extreme volatility. China’s figures are backwards-looking, reflecting the economy’s horrid state a year ago as much as its relative vigour today. The American figures, by contrast,
exaggerated
the economy’s vigour early in the rebound, when the unemployment rate still topped 10%.
这两种方式都存在缺陷，尤其是在经济剧烈波动的时期。中国的数据是回头看的，既反映了一年前经济的低迷，又反映了如今经济的活力。相比之下，美国的数据则夸大了经济反弹初期的活力，而美国当时的失业率仍高达10%。
Annualised rates can mislead when output suddenly jumps or plunges; they implicitly assume that a one-off event repeats every quarter for a full year. In annualised terms China’s rebound was even bigger than America’s, with growth of 55% in the second quarter of 2020.
当产出突然暴增或暴跌时，由此换算的年化增长率可能具有误导性；因为他们潜在假设，一个一次性事件在一年之内的每个季度都重复发生。按年化率计算，中国的经济反弹幅度甚至比美国还要大，其在2020年第二季度的增长率达55%。
There is a third way, which is to present quarter-on-quarter growth, without annualising it. This is what most European countries emphasise. China does in fact publish quarter-on-quarter rates, but never puts them in the spotlight, partly because they are so
volatile
. Growth in the first quarter of 2021 is, for instance, slowed to about 0.6% from 3.2% in the preceding quarter (the latter figure was revised up from 2.6%).
此外，还有第三种方式，即不换算成年化率的季度环比增长。欧洲大多数国家都喜欢用这一数据。事实上，中国也公布了季度环比率，但从未对其特别关注，这在一定程度上是由于其波动性太大。例如，2021年第一季度的增长率从上一季度的3.2%（由2.6%修正为3.2%）放缓至0.6%。
Such a slowdown might cause the government blushes. But it would still be wise to draw more attention to the quarter-on-quarter data. They more accurately trace the ups and downs of the economy.
增速的放缓可能会让政府难堪。但让人们更多地关注于季度环比数据仍是明智之举。季度环比数据能更准确地追踪经济的起起落落。
For the rest of 2021, the quarter-on-quarter pace is likely to inch higher, even as the annual rate comes down sharply. That picture would better match China’s reality. It is a solid, somewhat
bumpy
rebound, not a giant one.
在2021年剩下的日子里，虽然年化率可能会大幅下跌，但季度环比的增长率可能会小幅提升。这一数据状况更符合中国的现实。这是一次坚实而又有点颠簸的反弹，而非一次巨大的反弹。
(红色标注词为重难点词汇)
本文翻译：Vinnie
校核：Vinnie
编辑：Vinnie
4月16日，国家统计局公布今年一季度中国GDP同比增长数据，随着最新数据的公布，中国经济的增长速度引发了国外媒体的激烈讨论。经济学人认为，从数据角度来看，经济增长的速度取决于各个国家不同的计算方式。
重难点词汇：
convention
[kənˈvenʃn] n. 大会；惯例；约定
exaggerate
[ɪɡˈzædʒəreɪt] v. 夸大；夸张
