By Laura Powell, Skift
Within the realm of tourism, the trade war between the United States and China is likely to have a significant impact on luxury retail. And yes, luxury retail is a major player in the tourism industry.
中美之间的贸易战对旅游业的影响很可能对奢侈品零售产生巨大冲击。而且，奢侈品零售对旅游业来说也是至关重要的。
While Chinese buy roughly one-third of the world’s luxury goods, 73 percent of this consumption occurs outside the country, according to estimates from Bain & Company, a global management consulting firm. Statistics released by the Chinese Tourism Academy and Ctrip show Chinese travelers spent more than $115 billion during their overseas trips in 2017.
据全球咨询管理公司贝恩统计，全球大约三分之一的奢侈品都是中国人购买的，但这其中73%的消费发生在国外。中国旅游研究院和携程网发布的数据显示，2017年中国游客在海外旅游上的消费超过了1150亿美元。
The Outbound Chinese Tourism and Consumption Trends Survey, jointly issued by Nielsen and Alipay, contrasted overseas spending patterns of the Chinese with travelers from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and South Korea. Nielsen found that the Chinese not only spend more on shopping per person when abroad ($782 versus $486), they prioritize shopping in their budgets.
尼尔森和支付宝联合发布的《中国出境旅游与消费趋势调查》就海外消费模式将中国游客与美国、英国、法国、日本和韩国的游客进行了对比。尼尔森发现，中国人不仅在海外人均购物上花费更多($782：$486)，而且购物在他们的旅游开支中占比也更大。
Outbound Chinese actually spent more of their budgets on shopping (25 percent) than on hotel accommodations (19 percent) and dining (16 percent). The non-Chinese tourists spent the highest proportion of their travel funds on hotel accommodations (29 percent), followed by dining (18 percent) and shopping (15 percent).
中国出境游客在购物(25%)上的支出甚至超过了在酒店住宿(19%)和餐饮(16%)上的支出。而其他国家的游客在酒店住宿上的花费比例最高(29%)，其次是餐饮(18%)和购物(15%)。
Given that Chinese tourism to the United States has started to slow recently — in fact the number of visitors actually dropped last year from 3.2 million to three million — the impact on luxury retail could be monumental.
中国赴美旅游人数的增长速度近年来开始下滑，去年甚至出现了减少，从320万降至300万，这对奢侈品零售的影响可能是巨大的。
”The Chinese tourism market is so important to a luxury company that it can fuel up to double-digit growth versus a decline. It’s critical in terms of the number of people traveling and the value of their purchases,” said Milton Pedraza, CEO and founder of research and consulting firm The Luxury Institute.
“中国游客市场对于一家奢侈品公司而言非常重要，它不仅能防止业绩下滑，还能推动两位数的增长。这是因为中国游客的数量和他们的购买力都是非常可观的，”研究咨询公司美国精品协会的首席执行官兼创始人米尔顿•佩德拉扎表示。
Chinese spending dynamics fuel global luxury sales.
中国的消费动力推动了全球奢侈品销售。
“China continues to dominate the luxury scene,” said Claudia D’Arpizio, a partner with Bain & Company and co-author of the Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study Spring 2019, presented in collaboration with Fondazione Altagamma.
贝恩公司合伙人克劳迪娅•达皮奇奥也表示:“中国会继续主导着奢侈品市场。”她是贝恩2019年春季全球奢侈品市场研究报告的合著者之一。
GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS
地缘政治影响
However she warned that “geopolitical uncertainty [could] shape and reshape tourism spending patterns.”
但同时她也提醒道：“地缘政治的不确定性可以塑造或重塑旅游业消费模式。”
The Nielsen and Alipay survey found that 47 percent of Chinese globetrotters surveyed stated that safety of the destination would affect their travel choice. While 45 percent cited ease of visa procedures a prime consideration, and 35 percent felt it important that the locals make them feel welcome. All of these factors are coming to the fore in 2019, thanks to China’s new travel warning against coming to the United States and Trump administration policies.
尼尔森和支付宝所作的调查显示，有47%的中国出境游客表示，目的地的安全会影响他们选择旅游目的地；45%的人认为签证程序的便捷度会是首要考虑因素；35%的人认为当地居民对他们友好是很重要的。所有这些因素都在2019年显现出来，这要“归功”于中国对赴美旅游的新警告和特朗普政府的政策。
“Some Chinese consumers are already alienated due to the current political rhetoric, and the Chinese government has fueled the flames [with its recent travel warning] by saying people may not want to go to the United States because of the crime, when it’s really about trade wars,” said Pedraza.
佩德拉萨说:“由于目前的政治交锋，一些中国消费者已经开始远离美国。中国政府最近发出的旅游警告显示出人们可能因为犯罪事件频繁而不愿意去美国，而实际上这都是贸易战的缘故。”
If the Chinese feel unwelcome or are encouraged not to come to the United States by their government, the expected shrinkage of tourist market share does not bode well for U.S. luxury retailers.
如果中国人感到自己不受欢迎，或者政府鼓励他们不要去美国，那么旅游市场份额可能发生的萎缩对美国奢侈品零售商来说可不是什么好兆头。
Their international luxury spending was already on the decline, as the Chinese government has been encouraging high-end spending at home by price harmonization policies and governmental initiatives, like reduction of consumption taxes.
中国消费者在海外的奢侈品消费已经进入下降通道，这是因为中国政府通过降低消费税等价格协调政策和政府举措鼓励国内高端消费。
“Since last year, European brands including Louis Vuitton and Hermès, have lowered retail prices in China in some categories, after authorities cut import tariffs on a range of consumer goods as part of Beijing’s effort to encourage domestic consumption,” said the Nikkei Asian Review.
《日经亚洲评论》表示:“自去年以来，在中国政府降低一系列消费品的进口关税以鼓励国内消费之后，包括路易威登和爱马仕在内的欧洲品牌已在某些类别下调了在中国的零售价格。”
SHIFT IN SPENDING
消费转移
As a result, spending patterns suggest that Chinese shoppers will soon make half of their luxury purchases at home.
这种消费行为模式的变化表明，中国消费者很快将有一半的奢侈品消费在国内完成。
“Our belief is that the split between shopping abroad and shopping at home will shift from 75-25 a few years ago to an equitable 50-50 split within the next 12 to 24 months,” HSBC’s consumer and retail research division suggested.
汇丰消费者和零售研究部门表示:“我们相信，在未来12至24个月内，海外购物和国内购物的比例将从几年前的75：25，转变为50：50。”
Does that merely mean that consumers will buy Gucci and Prada at home rather than on the road? Maybe. But for American luxury companies, a trade war with China could mean that, according to Pedraza, “U.S. luxury imports into China could be hit with tariffs while European products will not.” And that will impact profits.
这仅仅意味着消费者将在本土而不是在旅途中购买Gucci和Prada吗？也许是的。但佩德拉扎认为，对美国奢侈品公司来说，中美之间的贸易战可能意味着，美国向中国的奢侈品出口可能会受到关税冲击，而欧洲产品则不会。这种情况会大大影响美国公司的利润。
For an example, look no further than Tiffany & Co. This month, the jeweler reported a decline in first-quarter tourism-related sales, with CEO Alessandro Bogliolo singling out the massive decrease of tourism spending from China as a key reason to lower the company’s full-year outlook.
来看看蒂芙尼的表现就知道了。本月，这家珠宝商公布的第一季度旅游相关销售出现下滑，首席执行长亚历山德罗•博里奥罗指出，来自中国的旅游支出大幅下降是该公司下调全年预期的一个关键原因。
Additionally new tariffs could spell smaller profit margins on goods sold in China. All of which points to a very challenging future.
此外，新关税还可能导致在中国销售的商品利润率下降。所有这一切都预示着一个充满挑战的未来。
