全文翻译自纽约时报7月5日文章
原题：China’s Strongman Has a Weak Point: North Korea
作者：Jane Perlez
Ye Fei对本文亦有贡献
译者：冬天毛
冬天毛导读：
应读者姥爷要求，昨天文章的重发。本来就不知道这篇到底触了哪门子线要被举报，不过还是请尽量私下传读吧，别在朋友圈公开分享了。
还有一个事：如果这篇文章重发再被删，接下来10天内不会再推送美国的任何负面新闻，反之亦然，说到做到。冬天毛作为一个以中立为目标原则的译者，就算这碗水端不平，也只能是因为自己偏心，但决不会被一个检举审核系统打破平衡。
但你们要因为这个而故意举报就扎心了啊！
纽约时报（The New York Times）是一家日报，于1851年创办，是美国严肃报刊的代表。由于风格古典严肃，它有时也被戏称为“灰色女士”（The Gray Lady）。
（维基百科）
正文：
BEIJING — China’s leader is known as the Chairman of Everything. He makes decisions daily on the economy, the military, foreign policy, human rights and more.
北京消息——中国领导人每天都要在经济、军事、外交、人权等方面做出决策，有“全面主席”之称。
Yet on North Korea he is stuck. A strongman who usually acts with precision and boldness, Mr. Xi has been reluctant to take on the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, ostensibly a Chinese ally, whom he privately disparages to Western leaders as young and reckless.
然而，朝鲜问题却让他犯了难。作为一名行事精密果敢的铁腕领袖，习先生一直在对抗北朝鲜领袖金正恩的问题上表现得不情不愿，而虽然表面上金正恩是中国的盟友，但在与西方领袖们私下沟通时，习先生却常贬损他年轻气盛、行事莽撞。
The July 4 test of the North’s first intercontinental ballistic missile has raised the question of what is China’s red line for its ally, and whether the test will force Mr. Xi to act decisively against North Korea as the Trump administration is asking him to do.
朝鲜在7月4日试射其首枚洲际弹道导弹，此事引起了关于中国对朝鲜这个盟国划出的“红线”究竟在哪，以及这次测试是否会迫使习先生依照特朗普政府的要求，对朝鲜采取决定性行动的疑问。
The answer? He will probably do little, if anything.
那答案呢？他恐怕不会有什么作为。
As much as Mr. Xi disapproves of North Korea’s nuclear program, he fears even more the end of Mr. Kim’s regime, a unified Korea with American troops on his border and a flood of refugees from the North into China. And despite North Korea’s missile advancement on Tuesday, Mr. Xi still has some breathing room, Chinese military and strategic experts said.
尽管习先生并不赞许朝鲜的核项目，但他更担心的是金先生的政权终结，韩朝统一后美国军队镇临他的国界，北朝鲜难民则大量涌入中国。而中国的军事和战略专家们表示，即便考虑到朝鲜在周二取得的这次导弹技术的突破，习先生还是有喘口气的余地。
Chinese military experts are assessing the launch more conservatively than their American counterparts, saying they were not convinced the missile was actually an intercontinental ballistic missile.
中国的军事专家们对这次试射的评估比他们的美国同行更加保守，表示他们并不确信这枚导弹真的是洲际弹道导弹。
“This test may or may not be an ICBM,” said Wu Riqiang, associate professor of international affairs at Renmin University. He said the missile was “probably unable to hit Alaska.”
中国人民大学国际关系学院副教授吴日强说：“这次试射可能是ICBM（冬天毛注：洲际弹道导弹，后文皆如此），也可能不是。”他表示，这枚导弹“八成打不到阿拉斯加。”
In contrast, American experts said the North Koreans had crossed a threshold, if only just, with a missile that appeared able to reach Alaska. While the missile traveled only about 580 miles, it did so by reaching 1,700 miles into space and re-entering the atmosphere, North Korean, South Korean and Japanese officials said.
与此相反，美国的专家们表示，即便只是将将达标，朝鲜人也终归已经跨过了一个门槛，造出了似乎能够到阿拉斯加的导弹。朝鲜、韩国和日本的官员称，虽然导弹只跨越了580英里（约930公里）的距离，但它在这个过程中朝向太空飞升了1700英里（约2700公里），然后才重返大气层。
South Korea’s Defense Ministry suggested on Wednesday that the North’s missile had the potential to reach Hawaii, about 4,780 miles from Kusong, the North Korean town from where the missile was fired, and farther than Alaska.
韩国国防部于周三指出，朝鲜的导弹具有射程远及夏威夷的潜力。夏威夷距离本次北朝鲜导弹发射地的龟城大约4780英里（约7700公里），比阿拉斯加更远。
周二的洲际弹道导弹试射后的金先生，照片由朝鲜中央通讯社发布。
On Wednesday, the top American general in South Korea, Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, said that self-restraint was all that kept the United States and South Korea from going to war with the North.
周三，美国驻韩最高将领文森特·K·布鲁克斯表示，美国与韩国之所以没有与北朝鲜开战，完全是出于自我克制。
Mr. Wu said the North’s long-range missile capabilities were less threatening to China than to the United States. China would be more concerned if the North had tested a short- or medium-range ballistic missile, he said.
（上文提及的）吴先生称，北朝鲜的远程导弹能力对中国的威胁不像对美国那么大。他表示，假如北朝鲜试射的是短程或中程弹道导弹的话，中国会更担忧一些。
China has always considered itself to be less threatened by North Korean nuclear capabilities than the United States, but it does fear American countermeasures, like its recent deployment of an antimissile system on South Korean soil to deal with the threat from the North. South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in, recently suspended deployment of that system, and there was no sign after the North’s missile launch that he was changing that position.
中国一直认为朝鲜核能力对自身的威胁比起对美国要来得更小，但它担心的是美国对此采取的对策，例如最近美国为了应对北朝鲜威胁而在韩国领土部署的反导弹系统。近期，韩国的新总统文在寅叫停了系统的部署，而在北朝鲜导弹试射后，并没有迹象显示他的立场有任何变化。
China may be increasingly frustrated by the North’s behavior, but it has never been the target of Mr. Kim’s weapons. The United States is the North’s declared enemy and the ultimate target of its nuclear arsenal.
中国或许也愈发对北朝鲜的行为感到恼火，但它毕竟从来就不是金先生手中武器的打击目标；美国才是朝鲜宣扬的敌人，也是其核武器库的终极打击目标。
More worrisome to China than the missile advances was the prospect of North Korea’s sixth test of a nuclear bomb, Mr. Wu and other experts said. China’s northeast, a depressed area of smaller cities and rusted industries, runs along the border with North Korea, not far from the tests. The nuclear testing site at Punggye-ri in North Korea is so close to the Chinese border that residents in the city of Yanji have complained that their windows rattled during the last several tests.
吴先生等专家表示，对中国来说，比朝鲜发展导弹技术更堪忧的是朝鲜进行第6次核试验的可能性。中国的东北部是一个小城小镇、产业衰败的萧条地区，沿国境线毗邻朝鲜，离核试验场不远。朝鲜丰溪里的核试验场离中国边界之近，以至于延吉市的居民诉称，在最近几次朝鲜核试验时，自家的窗户都在哐哐作响。
When the North tested a nuclear weapon in September 2016, local residents said they were afraid of large-scale leaks of radioactive material. Some said they were concerned that the North may actually use the bomb against China. There have been fears in the last few years of soil contamination in the northeast from the North’s nuclear testing.
2016年9月，在北朝鲜测试核武器时，本地居民曾表示他们害怕会有大规模的放射性物质泄漏，还有人担心北朝鲜甚至可能会对中国使用核弹。过去几年里，一直有人对北朝鲜的核试验可能会给东北地区造成土壤污染感到恐惧。
“For China, a sixth nuclear test represents a graver threat than an ICBM test,” said Feng Zhang, a fellow in political science at the Australian National University. “North Korea’s ICBMs threaten the U.S. more than China, but North Korea’s nuclear weapons and the testing of them near the Chinese border are a strategic and environmental threat to China.”
澳大利亚国立大学政治学研究学者张峰说：“对中国来说，第6次核试验比ICBM试验构成的威胁更严重。比起对中国而言，朝鲜的ICBM对美国的威胁更大，但朝鲜的核武器以及在中国国境附近进行的核试验对于中国来说构成了战略和环境上的威胁。”
Mr. Wu said, “The missile launch just isn’t as pressing for China as a nuclear test might be.”
吴先生说：“与核试验相比，导弹试射对中国来说其实就不是一个那么紧迫的问题。”
But no matter the North’s behavior, it would be very difficult for Mr. Xi to declare a red line with Pyongyang, either officially or unofficially, said Cheng Xiaohe, associate professor of international relations at Renmin University.
但中国人民大学国际关系学院副教授成晓和表示，不管北朝鲜作何举动，无论通过官方还是非官方途径，习先生要想对平壤划出“红线”都是很难的。
“The ICBM is not a Chinese red line — even the U.S. does not draw that line clearly and unequivocally,” Mr. Cheng said. If China did draw such a red line, he said, “China or the U.S. must automatically take retaliatory actions,” such as Beijing cutting off oil supplies to North Korea.
成先生说：“ICBM不是中国的红线——就连美国也没有明确画下那条线。”他表示，如果中国真的划了这么一条红线，那么“中国或美国在原则上就必须采取还击行动”，例如由北京切断对朝鲜的石油供给。
鸭绿江上中朝友谊桥附近的中国居民。
But China cannot afford to squeeze the North so hard — by cutting off fuel, for example, or basic trade — that the country destabilizes, sending refugees pouring over the border.
但中国对北朝鲜也不敢捏得太狠——例如切断燃料供给或是中止基本的贸易——以致到了朝鲜发生动乱的地步，那时就会有大批难民穿过国界涌入中国。
Mr. Xi is at least publicly expressing disapproval of North Korea’s latest actions. He was in Russia visiting President Vladimir V. Putin when the North announced it had successfully tested an ICBM. The two leaders issued a joint statement calling for negotiations that would aim to freeze the North’s arsenal in exchange for limitations on the American military posture in South Korea.
但对于朝鲜最近的行为，习先生至少公开表示了反对。在北朝鲜宣布ICBM试射成功时，他恰在俄罗斯访问弗拉基米尔·V·普京总统。两位领袖发表了联合声明，呼吁各方开展谈判，旨在以美国在韩驻军收敛姿态为交换条件，冻结北朝鲜的军火库。
Instead of penalizing North Korea, China has been calling for such negotiations for many months, but the Trump administration has declined.
中国并没有直接惩罚朝鲜，而是数月来一直在呼吁进行这种形式的谈判，但特朗普政府对此表示了拒绝。
Beyond cracking down on trade between the two nations, Mr. Xi holds very few cards against North Korea, and he has little choice but to rely on a kind of strategic hesitation, said a Chinese analyst of foreign affairs who sometimes advises the government.
中国一位时而为政府担任顾问的外事分析家表示，要对付朝鲜，除了打压两国间的贸易外，习先生手里可出的牌极少，而除了依赖这种战略性的迟疑以外，他别无选择。
“Xi as a strategist is facing an anguished choice to use up his means on Kim Jong-un while having no confidence at all that it would be effective,” said the analyst, Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University. “What can this strategist do? A sort of hesitation is unavoidable.”
这位分析家，中国人民大学国际关系学院教授时殷弘说：“作为战略家，习面对的是一个痛苦的抉择：即便他倾尽手段对付金正恩，也根本没有信心能见成效。这位战略家还能做什么？某种迟疑是不可避免的。”
Mr. Xi is facing an increasingly “determined and decisive” Mr. Kim, and he is also confronted by an American president who is not easy to deal with, Mr. Shi said. “Xi and Trump are unable to see eye to eye for long, and even if they were it would be extremely difficult to thwart Kim for long,” he said.
时先生表示，习先生所面对的是一个愈发“坚决果敢”的金先生，而他同时还得面对一位不好对付的美国总统。“习和特朗普无法长期保持一致，而即便他们真的能做到这一点，想要长期阻挠金也是极其困难的。”
In Washington, Mr. Trump repeated his impatience with Mr. Xi. In a post on Twitter on Wednesday, the president said China’s trade with North Korea had grown by almost 40 percent in the first quarter. “So much for China working with us — but we had to give it a try,” he said.
在华盛顿，特朗普先生再次表达了他对习先生的不耐烦。周三，在一条推特信息中，美国总统表示中国和朝鲜间的贸易量在第一季度增长了将近40%。他说：“看来跟中国合作也就这样了——但我们试试总是没错的。”
It was not clear where Mr. Trump got his 40 percent figure. A South Korean trade group said on Monday that China had imported much more iron in the last few months than previously. But the group also said that the North was a long way from making up the lost revenues from China shutting down its North Korean coal imports.
不知道特朗普先生的40%这个数是从哪听来的。韩国一个贸易组织于周一表示，中国在过去几个月里进口的钢铁量相比之前大为提高，但该组织也表示，北朝鲜还是远远无法弥补由于中国停止进口其煤炭造成的收入损失。
（冬天毛注：下面这段是对上面两段内容的核实澄清，编辑疑似没有及时整合）
China’s trade with the North grew 37.4 percent during the first three months of the year, compared with the same period in 2016, Chinese trade data released in April showed. China said the trade grew even as it stopped buying North Korean coal.
中国于4月公布的贸易数据显示，中国与北朝鲜间的贸易额在今年头三个月里相比2016年同期增长了37.4%。中国称，尽管它停止了购买朝鲜煤炭，但贸易额还是增加了。
全文到此结束
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