北大经院 | 讲座预告（12.3-12.4）

主讲人：

董广阳（华创证券执委会委员、副总裁兼研究所所长、大消费组组长）

主持人：

锁凌燕（北京大学经济学院教授）

时间：

2024年12月3日（周二）

18：40-20：30

形式：

腾讯会议

主讲人简介：

董广阳，华创证券执委会委员、副总裁兼研究所所长、大消费组组长；曾任职于瑞银证券、招商证券；新财富白金分析师。

主办单位：

北京大学经济学院

北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心

北京大学中国金融研究中心

主讲人：

周小华（智臾科技（DolphinDB））

鲜幸池（中国银河证券）

主持人：

（北大经院）黎新平

时间：

2024年12月3日（周二）

19:00-21:30

地点：

北京大学经济学院307会议室

主要内容：

从金融大数据中挖掘有价值的因子，并进一步建模和回测以构建交易系统，是量化金融业务的必经之路。这场专题讲座将深入中高频量化交易的核心与关键技能，探索如何通过高性能基础设施的构建与应用来实现高效的策略研发。此外，银河证券鲜幸池将分享金融大数据及金融科技如何赋能FICC综合金融业务。

主讲人简介：

周小华，智臾科技(DolphinDB)创始人、CEO，美国德雷克塞尔大学信息科学和技术博士，上海交通大学学士、硕士。主要从事文本检索、数据挖掘和大数据方向的研究，在国际顶级期刊和顶级学术会议发表论文30 余篇，先后在美国LYZ基金、巴克莱资本、摩根士丹利从事程序化交易策略高频交易系统的研发。2016年回国创立浙江智臾科技有限公司，带领团队研发DolphinDB数据库，成为头部银行、券商、公募基金和私募基金处理时序数据的重要基础设施。

鲜幸池，中国银河证券FICC业务总部副总经理兼银河国际副行政总裁，CFA，硕士毕业于北京大学信号与信息处理专业，具有超过14年的FICC全品种投资交易和业务管理经验。现主要负责 FICC 做市业务、客需业务、国际业务及金融科技建设等。

注： 参与讲座互动将获得主讲机构的数据分析书籍及礼品，并现场接收同学实习校招申请简历。

国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊

主讲人：

李明（香港中文大学（深圳）助理教授）

主持人：

（北大经院）莫家伟

参与老师：

（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋

（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽

（北大国发院）薛思帆

时间：

2024年12月4日（周三）

10：00-11：30

地点：

北京大学经济学院305会议室

主讲人简介：

Ming Li is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Her research interests cover topics of the Chinese economy, political economy, and urban economics. Her current research focuses on entrepreneurship, internal migration and trade, and the political economy of firm dynamics in China. She received the Bachelor’s degree in Finance from Peking University and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

摘要：

We decode China’s industrial policy from 2000 by employing large language models (LLMs) to extract and analyze rich information from a comprehensive dataset of 3 million documents issued by central, provincial, and municipal governments. Through careful prompt engineering, multistage extraction and refinement, and rigorous verification, LLMs allow us to capture detailed policy dimensions, including context and scope, targeted industries, tools, implementation mechanisms, and intergovernmental relationships, etc., and thus provide a nuanced understanding of the evolution of China’s industrial policy. By combining structured policy data with micro-level firm data, we document 13 key facts about China's industrial policy. Our analysis explores the following critical questions. Which industries are targeted and how does this align with economic theory? What tools are deployed most frequently and how does their usage vary across government levels and regions? We also examine the impact of these policies on firm behavior, including entry, production, and productivity growth, and highlight the heterogeneous effects of different policy tools. In addition, we explore the political economy of industrial policy, focusing on top-down transmission mechanisms, policy diffusion, and persistence across regions. Finally, we document spatial inefficiencies and industry-wide overcapacity as potential downsides. This study provides a comprehensive picture of China’s industrial policies, highlighting both successes and inefficiencies in the policy landscape.

发展与公共财政工作坊

主讲人：

Lukas Hensel（北京大学光华管理学院助理教授）

参与老师：

（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威

（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬

（北大光华管理学院）张晓波、仇心诚

时间：

2024年12月4日（周三）

10:30-12:00

地点：

北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245会议室

主讲人简介：

Lukas Hensel is an Assistant Professor at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, specializing in Development Economics, Labor Economics, and Political Economy. He holds a Ph.D. and M.Phil. in Economics from the University of Oxford, where he also served as a postdoctoral researcher and visiting researcher. Hensel has published extensively in leading journals, including The Economic Journal , The Review of Economics and Statistics and the American Political Science Review . His research mostly utilizes field experiments to explore labor market dynamics in developing countries and political behavior.

摘要：

This study explores the socioeconomic impacts of job displacement in low-income settings, focusing on Ethiopia's Hawassa Industrial Park, a key site for formal employment growth in the region. Leveraging a randomized control trial, we evaluate the effects of severance payment structures—statutory lump-sum payments versus equivalent support distributed in monthly installments—on displaced workers' financial resilience, employment outcomes, and migration decisions. Findings indicate that job loss leads to significant and persistent declines in wage employment, labor income, and core expenditures, with informal transfers partially mitigating these shocks. Lump-sum payments trigger short-term expenditure spikes but are associated with reduced employment recovery and increased out-migration. In contrast, monthly payments promote smoother consumption patterns and appear to better support long-term economic activity. Preferences for payment structure vary across workers and are related to treatment effects, highlighting the potential of tailored interventions to optimize welfare outcomes.