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上海電影: 影業爲基IP爲翼,集團賦能發展可期

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-05-06 18:16

正文

Shanghai Film

(601595 CH)


影業爲基IP爲翼,集團賦能發展可期


Initiating coverage: SFC leverages film industry experience to grow a secondary revenue business in major IPs

ACCUMULATE (Initiation)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

公司背景:“電影發行放映+大IP開發運營”雙輪驅動,影院主業穩健發展,新增IP業務助力收入增量


上海電影正式成立於2012年,具備完整的“發行+院線+高端影院”電影產業鏈。2023年收購上影元51%股權,獲得了60個經典動畫及真人影視作品的運營版權,進入電影發行放映與大IP開發運營雙輪驅動發展模式。目前,上海電影主營業務涵蓋電影發行、電影院線、影院管理、大IP開發。


Twin engines: cinema operations and distribution; and major IPs ramp up revenue

Shanghai Film Company (SFC) started out in 2012 in the film industry covering the value chain from movie distribution to cinema chain and premium theater operations. When it acquired a 51% stake in Shanghai Film Infinity last year, SFC took ownership of operating copyrights to 60 classic animation and live-action film and TV works, which boosted its intellectual property (IP) business to a second revenue stream. Its core coverage widened to film distribution, cinema chains, cinema management and major IP rights development and operations.


電影發行放映業務穩健發展:票務板塊直營、加盟單銀幕票房產出遠超行業均值,發行板塊加碼精品、深耕IP內容


票務板塊,公司直營影院主要分佈在高線城市,依託區位優勢人均票價高於行業平均;加盟影院持續擴張,聯和票房在公司上市後一直穩居全國前四,且作爲頭部院線,有望受益於向龍頭集中的行業趨勢,市佔率有望提升。發行板塊,公司深度參與IP內容開發創作,後續藉助集團資源賦能,公司對重點影片的參與數量及份額有望提升。


Revenue engine 1: cinema and film distribution business is growing steadily

Cinema operations: SFC’s per-screen box-office takings far exceed industry averages in both the direct sales and franchised operation channels:


•Direct operations: SFC places the theaters it runs directly in high-tier cities and this locational advantage translates into higher-than-average per-capita ticket prices.

•Franchised theaters: its franchised channel is growing, with affiliate Lianhe Cinema’s box-office takings consistently within the top four in the China market since the company was listed.

•Outlook: as market leader, we believe SFC’s theater chain will benefit from a shift in concentration toward market leaders, and we expect its market share will increase.


Distribution business: potential uptrends in activity and major projects’ market share:

•SFC is gathering traction in developing and creating IP content, while leveraging group resources. We believe the company’s participation in major film projects in terms of number of productions and market share will increase over time.


大IP開發運營業務變現增量可觀:授權板塊大客戶年框化提升ARPU;衍生品板塊填補國風內容IP品類空缺,線上網店熱銷、線下藉助影院資源售賣;空間板塊IP美陳效果吸睛,AI技術融入文商旅業態


授權板塊,商品及營銷授權形式多樣化助力新用戶獲取,年框協議在綁定高價值客戶的同時或有效縮短項目落地週期,在單客戶平均價值及合作頻次提升的驅動下IP授權業務潛力有望進一步釋放;遊戲授權帶來長期的流水分成,預計穩態每年貢獻1.9-4.9億收入。衍生品板塊,線上主要渠道爲頭部電商,上美影網店物流及服務評分更優,粉絲增量空間大;線下主要依託影院門店打造購物場景,節省專門設店成本;且IP內容上卡位稀缺國風內容IP衍生品,粉絲忠誠度高、生命週期長。空間板塊,節假日時期的大型商圈、展覽效果吸睛,深受市場認可;同時線下沉浸式布展也有助於擴大IP品牌影響力,提升粉絲對IP的認同感,提高IP消費意願。此外公司注重新賽道孵化,重點投資“IP+新賽道”,AI新技術與IP產業鏈形成合力。


Revenue engine 2: major IPs’ business has seen sharp growth in monetization

SFC’s major IP copyrights’ development and operations business has driven a sharp rise in incremental monetization. Annual licensing deals that the company struck with major customers have increased SFC’s ARPU. And since SFC’s merchandise representing national icon IPs tap into a scarce supply market, they are selling well in online stores, boosted by offline sales at its cinema chains. Its IP merchandise have eye-catching displays that integrate the use of AI technologies to target the cultural, commercial and tourism markets.


•IP projects: SFC has been able to acquire new users by employing a variety of merchandise and marketing licensing formats. SFC’s annual licensing deals help firm ties with high-project-value customers, while effectively shortening the project implementation cycle. We expect the IP copyrights business will drive incremental growth in terms of average value per customer and collaborations.

•IP games: we believe the IP games segment has the potential to increase in its proportion of turnover and could contribute stable revenue of RMB190-490m p.a. over the long term.

•IP merchandise:

-Online: the company mainly uses major ecommerce platforms for its online sales channel. Shanghai Animation Film Studio’s online store has relatively better logistics and service ratings. We see considerable potential to increase the pool of fans.

-Offline: the company mainly provides shopping channels through its cinema stores, which saves the cost of setting up dedicated stores. Besides, SFC’s IP merchandise are positioned in a scarce supply market in terms of national icon IPs, so they enjoy high fan loyalty with longer life-cycles. The company ensures maximum marketing exposure by utilizing large business districts and exhibitions during holidays, which increase market recognition. Its immersive offline exhibitions also raise the profiles of the IP brands, enhancing fan recognition and IP purchasing willingness.

-Potential new markets: the company also expands the IP market by investing into the development of new IP market scenarios, synergizing new AI technologies into the IP value chain.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


盈利預測及投資建議

預計公司2023/2024/2025年營收分別爲7.91/10.22/12.16億元,歸屬母公司淨利潤爲1.24/2.18/3.24億元。我們認爲,公司影院主業穩健、一線城市影院市佔率優勢突出,且有潛在市佔率提升的邏輯;新增大IP開發運營業務帶來收入增量及估值彈性。首次覆蓋,給予公司“增持”評級。


Valuation and risks

We forecast revenue in 2023/24/25E will arrive at RMB791m/1.02bn/1.22bn and net profit at RMB124m/218m/324m. We believe SFC has a stable core business in theater operations and its market share advantage in first-tier cities could go on to grow further. We believe its new major IPs’ development and operations business will add incremental revenue growth and increase valuation elasticity. We initiate coverage of SFC with an ACCUMULATE rating.


風險提示: IP商業化不及預期的風險;市場競爭加劇的風險;網絡媒體競爭的風險;優質內容供給不足的風險;IP授權遊戲的流水分成比例不及預期的風險;23年業績預告僅爲初步覈算結果,具體數據以公司正式發佈的23年年報爲準;測算具有一定主觀性,僅供參考。


Risks include: weaker-than-expected IP monetization; smaller-than-expected IP games’ share of total turnover; and intensifying competition, including in online media; and inadequate quality content supply. Note: the 2023E forecast is based on preliminary estimates and subject to actual data in the company’s published 2023 results report; our estimates are subjective to an extent and provided only for reference.



Email: [email protected]

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