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申洲國際: 運營韌性凸顯,看好市佔提升

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-04-23 22:26

正文

Shenzhou International Group

(2313 HK)


運營韌性凸顯,看好市佔提升


2023 review: 0.1% net profit dip indicates operational resilience; we anticipate market share increase ahead

BUY(maintain)


投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈23年業績公告,23年營業收入249.7億,同比減少10.1%,主要系歐美市場服裝消費需求下降及品牌客戶去庫存導致對當期採購的減少,整體產能規模並未得到有效利用。


2023 revenue down 10% on destocking; net profit dipped 0.1% on wider GPM

Top line: Shenzhou International released 2023 results with a 10.1% slide in revenue to RMB24.97bn: production capacities were underutilized due to falling demand for consumer apparel in the European and US markets amid brand customer destocking and lower procurements.


23年歸母淨利約爲45.57億人民幣,同比減少0.1%。23年毛利率約爲24.3%,同比增加2.2個百分點。 主要系海外新工廠的運行效率逐步提升、新聘員工人數的增加,生產能力得到進一步釋放,降低單位產品的固定運行成本分攤;此外,由於新冠疫情影響減弱,疫情相關支出對業績的影響已消除。


Bottom line: net profit dipped just 0.1% to RMB4.56bn in 2023 as gross margin widened 2.2ppt to 24.3%, mainly because operating efficiency improved bit by bit at the new foreign factories, along with more new hires and incremental production capacity releases, all of which reduced fixed operating cost allocation per unit produced. Macro factors included an absence of pandemic management costs as its impact subsided.


分品類,運動類產品銷售額同比減少約13.6%,主要系歐美運動類產品需求下跌所致;休閒類產品銷售額同比減少約1.4%,主要系日本及其他市場休閒類產品需求減少所致;內衣類產品銷售額同比增加約30.2%,主要系日本及其他市場內衣需求上升所致;其他針織品銷售額同比減少約41.6%,主要系23年口罩產品停產所致,剔除口罩產品同比增加約0.4%。


Product categories:

•Sports product sales fell 13.6% in 2023 as demand fell in Europe and the US;

•Leisure products slipped 1.4% on weaker demand in Japan and other markets;

•Underwear products, however, saw sales rise 30.2% on higher demand in Japan and other markets; and

•Knitwear fell 41.6% when the use of medical masks petered out in a post-pandemic world; if we were to exclude this product, sales would have nudged up 0.4%.


分地區,中國收入71億同比增長0.7%(佔29%),歐洲50億同比減少19%(佔20%),美國39億同比減少20%(佔16%),日本37億同比減少6%(佔15%),其他地區53億同比減少8%(佔21%)。歐美主要系運動類需求減少;日本休閒類內衣需求減少


Market regions: the company attributes sales weakness in Europe and the US to falling sportswear demand in these markets, while Japan’s stronger sales were due to higher demand for casual and underwear:

•China generated revenue of RMB7.1bn in 2023, up 0.7%, and it accounted for 29% of total revenue;

•Europe brought in RMB5bn, a 19% decrease, accounting for 20%;

•US delivered RMB3.9bn, down 20%, accounting for 16%;

•Japan generated RMB3.7bn, down 6%, accounting for 15%; while

•Other regions garnered RMB5.3bn in revenue, down 8%, and accounting for 21% collectively.


海外工廠產能利用率爬坡

23年,海外工廠的成衣產出佔本公司成衣總產出約53%,隨着柬埔寨新工廠生產效率的提升和員工規模的擴充,23年柬埔寨基地的成衣產出佔本公司成衣總產出26%,同比增加4pct。23年,海外基地的員工年度平均人數佔公司總平均人數57%,同比增加5pct。年內,公司進一步完善海外工廠在輔料、印花、繡花等生產工序上的一體化配套,有效提升短交期能力。


Foreign production capacity utilization rose as Cambodia base hired more staff

Shenzhou’s foreign factories accounted for 53% of total apparel output in 2023. The new factory in Cambodia ticked up in production efficiency through the year and increased staff strength, and it alone accounted for 26% of the company’s apparel output, up 4ppt. Foreign facilities accounted for 57% of total staff on average in 2023, an increase of 5ppt. Shenzhou enhanced integration of support production processes at the foreign bases, including those for accessories, printing and embroidery, which effectively shortened delivery times.


提升管理決策效率,降低物流成本及提高供應鏈響應速度

公司重視與合作方的長期互利共贏,通過價值鏈的協同效應,追求在生產效率提高、創新能力提升和資源配置優化等方面的價值體現,兼顧各方利益,實現價值鏈的整體最優,共同應對市場挑戰。2023年內,進一步完善了與相關方的信息傳遞機制,提高了供應鏈的數據信息透明度,有利於管理決策效率的提升;在生產選址佈局上,重視與產業鏈上下游的意見交換,有利於降低物流成本及提高供應鏈響應速度;以產業鏈的價值協同爲基礎,對供應商進行引導、甄選,推進廉潔、高效的採購體系建設。


Supply chain synergy: data transparency; better costs; cohesive responses

One-for-all strategy: Shenzhou emphasizes long-term mutual benefits with its partners. It seeks to effect value chain synergy by improving production efficiency, innovations and resource allocations, while taking the interests of all parties into account. This optimizes the entire value chain and enables joint responses to market challenges.


Open data: the company perfected its data transmission mechanism with certain parties last year and the increased supply chain data transparency enabled more efficient decision-making for management.


Supply chain synergy: in building out its production site network, the company took into account the views exchanged along the upstream and downstream value chain, which helps reduce logistics costs and improve supply chain response speeds. In driving value chain synergy, Shenzhou guides and selects suppliers that align with its buildout of a corruption-free and efficient procurement system.


佈局全球產能提升競爭力

23年市場需求的不足,對公司產能有效利用帶來短期的不利影響,公司通過系列策略措施的落實,實現未來業務增長的可持續性,除現有越南及柬埔寨生產基地以外,公司正積極考慮進一步拓展在海外的產能佈局規模,更好滿足客戶於不同市場的採購需求,進一步提高本公司於全球的資源整合能力,加快智能製造、數智管理的產業應用,推進產品向多元化、高端化方向發展,提升一線管理幹部的能力和素養。


Global production network: mulling capacity buildout to raise competitiveness

Market demand weakness in 2023 briefly hampered the effective utilization of Shenzhou’s production capacities. It drew up a sustainable growth blueprint that involved implementation of a series of strategic measures. On top of its Vietnam and Cambodia facilities, Shenzhou is exploring upscaling its foreign production capacities to better meet customer procurement needs across different markets, and hence boost its ability to integrate resources globally. It aims to accelerate industrial applications of smart manufacturing and digital management, drive product development toward diversity and premiumization, while raising the quality and capabilities of its frontline managers.


投资建议/Investment Ideas


上調盈利預測,維持“買入”評級。 隨着品牌商去庫存的收尾,海外的服裝消費需求很可能會有一定的回升。公司在堅守主業基礎上,拓展產品品類的豐富性,同時,重視對纖維新材料在高端紡織面料開發中的應用,加大對創新性、功能性產品的研發投入。考慮到海外需求回暖仍需時間,但產能利用率提升助力利潤改善,我們調整盈利預測,預計公司24-26年收入爲287.6/329.8/377.0億人民幣(24-25年前值分別爲311.7/361.0億人民幣),歸母淨利爲56.2/65.1/73.2億人民幣(前值分別爲52.8/60.2億人民幣),EPS分別爲3.74/4.33/4.87元人民幣/股,對應PE分別爲18/16/14x。


Valuation and risks

Outlook: we believe foreign consumer apparel demand will pick up as brand owners wind down their inventories. Shenzhou plans to stick with its core business and to enrich product categories. It is prioritizing applications for new fiber materials to develop premium textiles and would increase R&D investments to develop innovative and functional products.


Valuation: in view of the fact that foreign demand would take time to come back in, while higher capacity utilization could improve profitability instead, we lower our forecasts accordingly. We now expect revenue will arrive at RMB28.76bn/32.98bn/37.70bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB31.17bn/36.10bn in 2024/25E), with net profit at RMB5.62bn/6.51bn/7.32bn (previously RMB5.28bn/6.02bn in 2024/25E). Our EPS moves to RMB3.74/4.33/4.87 in 2024/25/26E, with PE corresponding to 18x/16x/14x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:

產能擴張及利用率不及預期;全球終端消費需求放緩;品牌商採購策略和市場投放發生調整;外匯波動風險等。


Risks include:

lower-than-expected capacity expansion and utilization; a slowdown in global end-market consumer demand; shifts in brand owners’ procurement strategies and market investments; and FX fluctuations.


Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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