背景介绍：
过去一百多年，欧美日一直都是汽车行业的主导者，但是在新兴的新能源汽车领域，中国后来者居上，随之而来的是西方国家对中国汽车的抵制和刁难，其本质是为了保护本国落后产业，不想失去其长久以来的霸权主导地位。对此，《经济学人》认为，将价廉物美且绿色的中国汽车拒之门外是完全错误的做法。
An
influx
of
Chinese cars is terrifying the West
中国汽车大量涌入令西方恐惧
But it should
keep its markets open to cheap, clean vehicles
但西方市场应对廉价的绿色车辆保持开放
Is China about to unleash another wave of
deindustrialisation on the rich world? About 1m American manufacturing workers
lost their jobs to Chinese competition in 1997-2011, as the country integrated
into the global trading system and began shipping cheap goods overseas.
中国是否即将在富裕国家掀起另一波去工业化浪潮？在1997年至2011年间，随着中国融入全球贸易体系并开始向海外输送廉价商品，约有100万美国制造业工人因来自中国的竞争而失业。
This “China shock” has since been blamed for everything from rising deaths among working-class Americans to the election of Donald Trump. The rejection of liberal attitudes to trade also explains why politicians embrace industrial policy today.
此后，从美国工人阶级死亡人数上升到特朗普当选，一切都被归咎于“中国冲击”。对自由贸易观的排斥拒绝也导致政客们如今纷纷采取产业政策。
Now China’s carmakers are enjoying an astonishing rise. That stokes fears of another
ruinous
shock. In fact, the successes of Chinese cars should be celebrated, not feared.
目前，中国的汽车制造商正在惊人崛起中。这引发了人们对另一场毁灭性冲击的担忧。事实上，中国汽车的成功值得庆祝，而不是忧惧。
Just five years ago China shipped only a quarter as
many cars as Japan, then the world’s biggest exporter. This week the Chinese
industry claimed to have exported over 5m cars in 2023, exceeding the Japanese total.
仅在五年前，中国的汽车出口量还只有当时全球最大汽车出口国日本的四分之一。本月稍早时，中国汽车业称2023年中国总共出口了超过500万辆汽车，超过了日本。
China’s biggest carmaker, BYD, sold 0.5m electric vehicles (EVs) in the fourth quarter, leaving Tesla in the dust. Chinese EVs are so
snazzy
,
whizzy
and—most important—cheap that the constraint on their export today is the scarcity of vessels for shipping them.
中国最大的汽车制造商比亚迪在第四季度售出50万辆电动汽车，让特斯拉望尘莫及。中国的电动汽车造型时尚、技术先进，而且最重要的是价格低廉，目前制约其出口的仅仅是运输船只不足。
As the world decarbonises, demand will rise further. By 2030 China could double its share of the global market, to a third, ending the dominance of the West’s national champions, especially in Europe.
随着全球走向脱碳，需求将进一步上升。到2030年，中国在全球市场的份额可能会增加一倍，达到三分之一，从而结束西方各国龙头车企的主导地位，尤其是在欧洲。
This time it will be even easier for politicians to pin
the blame for any Western job losses on Chinese foul play. A frosty
geopolitical climate will feed the sentiment that subsidised production
unfairly puts Western workers on the scrapheap. And there have certainly been
subsidies.
这一次，政客将更容易把西方的一切就业流失归咎于中国的不正当竞争。冰冷的地缘氛围将强化人们的观感，认为受补贴的生产不公平地夺走了西方工人的生计。而补贴当然是真实存在的。
Since the launch of its “Made in China” agenda in 2014, China has
brazenly
disregarded global trading rules, showering handouts on its carmakers. It is hard to be precise about the value of the underpriced loans, equity injections, purchase subsidies and government contracts Chinese firms enjoy.
自2014年开始实施“中国制造”计划以来，中国一直公然无视全球贸易规侧，大肆补贴本国汽车制造商。它们所享受的低息贷款、股本注入、购车补贴和政府合同的价值难以确切计算。
But by one estimate, total public spending on the industry was in the region of a third of EV sales at the end of the 2010s. These subsidies come on top of the
ransacking
of technology from joint ventures with Western carmakers and Western and South Korean battery-makers.
但据一项估计，到2010年代末，对汽车行业的公共支出约占电动汽车销售额的三分之一。除了补贴，中国还在与西方汽车制造商以及西方和韩国的电池制造商的合资企业中掠夺技术。
The temptation will therefore be for rich-world
policymakers to shield their carmakers from the
onslaught
ofstate-backed
competition.
In October the European Commission opened an investigation into Chinese cars.
因此，富裕国家的政策制定者将会很想要保护自己的汽车制造商，让它们免受由政府资助的竞争的猛攻。去年10月，欧盟委员会启动了对中国汽车的调查。
President Joe Biden is said to be considering increasing tariffs on them, even though America’s carmakers, protected by a 27.5% levy and handouts from the Inflation Reduction Act, currently face little Chinese competition.
据说美国总统拜登正在考虑对中国汽车增加关税，尽管在27.5%的汽车进口关税和《通胀削减法案》补助的保护下，美国汽车制造商目前几乎没有遭遇中国的竞争。
Yet locking out Chinese cars would be a mistake. The potential gains to the West from a ready supply of cheap, green vehicles are simply enormous—and dwarf the cost of disruption and the dangers it brings.
然而，排斥中国汽车将是一个错误。西方可以通过廉价且环保的车辆的稳定供应获得巨大的潜在利益，远超过它带来的破坏和危险。
One reason is that the market for cars is going to be
upended, regardless of trade with China. In 2022, 16-18% of new cars sold
around the world were electric; in 2035 the EU will ban the sale of new cars
with internal-combustion engines. Though firms are retaining their workers as
they switch to making EVs, the process is less labour-intensive.
一个原因是，无论与中国的贸易往来如何，汽车市场都即将被颠覆。2022年，在全球销售的新车中，电动汽车占16%至18%。2035年欧盟将全面禁止销售内燃机汽车。尽管企业在转向电动汽车生产时会保留工人，但制造电动汽车所需的劳动力将减少。
Much as the first China shock was responsible for less than a fifth of total manufacturing job losses occurring at the time—many of which were attributable to welcome technological advances—so too there is a danger of confusing disruption caused by the shift to EVs with that caused by Chinese production of them.
第一次中国冲击造成的制造业岗位流失实际上不到流失总数的五分之一，当时许多流失是因为值得欢迎的技术进步而造成的。这一次，转向电动汽车引起的冲击与中国生产电动汽车引起的冲击同样有可能被混为一谈。
Next consider the gains from letting trade flow.
Vehicles are among people’s biggest purchases, accounting for about 7% of
American consumption. Cheaper cars mean more money to spend on other things, at
a time when real wages have been squeezed by inflation.
接下来想想保持贸易畅通带来的好处。汽车是人们购买的最大件商品之一，约占美国总消费的7%。在实际工资受到通胀挤压的时候，汽车更便宜就意味着人们可以把更多的钱用在别处。
And Chinese cars are not only cheap; they are better-quality, particularly with respect to the smart features in EVs that are made possible by internet connectivity. Nor does the existence of a carmaking industry determine a country’s economic growth.
而且中国车不仅仅是便宜，它们的质量更好，特别是在电动汽车中通过互联网连接实现的智能功能方面。再则，一国的经济增长也不取决于是否有汽车制造业。
Denmark has among the world’s highest living standards without a carmaker to speak of. Even as cars roll off Chinese assembly lines, the economy is spluttering—in part because it has been so distorted by subsidies and state control.
没什么汽车制造可言的丹麦是全球生活水平最高的国家之一。大批新车从中国的生产线上下来之际，其经济增长萎靡不振，部分原因就是补贴和政府控制导致了严重扭曲。
Last, consider the benefits to the environment.
Politicians around the world are realising just what a tall order it is to ask
consumers to go green, as a backlash against costly emissions-reductions
policies builds. EVs, too, are currently more expensive than gas-guzzling cars
(even if their running costs are lower).
最后看看环境效益。随着对成本高昂的减排政策的抵制越来越强烈，世界各地的政客都意识到要让消费者转向绿色生活是一项多么艰巨的任务。目前，电动车的价格也高于燃油车（尽管使用成本更低）。
Embracing Chinese cars with lower prices could therefore ease the transition to net-zero emissions. The cheapest EV sold in China by BYD costs around $12,000, compared with $39,000 for the cheapest Tesla in America.
接受价格更低的中国汽车可能有助于向净零排放的过渡。比亚迪在中国销售的最便宜的电动汽车约为1.2万美元，而在美国最便宜的特斯拉也要3.9万美元。
重难点词汇
：
